Near the end of the year, the Daxin family will usher in a feast again. The 50 billion yuan Societe Generale convertible bonds will start online subscription next Monday. Although many details have yet to be finalized, the agency predicts that the new campaign is expected to be “two in one”.
50 billion yuan “Big Mac”
Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) the issuance of 50 billion yuan of convertible bonds, referred to as Societe Generale convertible bonds, is rated AAA. This is also one of the largest convertible bonds in the convertible bond market. Previously Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) also issued 50 billion yuan of convertible bonds.
A person from a financial institution said that the issuance plan of Societe Generale convertible bonds of 50 billion yuan quickly obtained the issuance approval, making the market feel that the issuance rhythm may be faster than expected.
The announcement shows that on December 6, the issuance of Societe Generale convertible bonds just passed the issuance examination committee, and the issuance approval was obtained on December 15. The above financial institutions said that generally speaking, it often takes about a month from the meeting to getting the approval. “At present, if the issuance is successful, it is expected to be listed before the Spring Festival.”
winning rate
Industry insiders said that the online subscription of Societe Generale convertible bonds is expected to reproduce the high signing rate of bank convertible bonds.
Data show that since May this year, no new bonds have been broken in the convertible bond market. After deducting some varieties with defective qualifications, there are very few varieties below 105 yuan in the market.
However, because there are many variables in this issuance and many details remain to be clarified, it is still difficult to accurately calculate the winning rate.
According to the issuance announcement, the issuance scale of Societe Generale’s convertible bonds is 50 billion yuan, some of which are placed first by old shareholders, followed by offline subscription and online subscription.
Statistics show that at present, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) the top ten shareholders hold 47.79% in total, but the bank has not made it clear whether the top ten shareholders participate in the priority placement. It is generally expected that about 60% of the old shareholders may participate in the placement to obtain a convertible bond amount of 30 billion yuan. “But there are still variables. First, it is not easy to measure the participation of minority shareholders; second, the largest shareholder has not made it clear whether to participate.” These people said.
The remaining convertible bonds will be shared by offline and online investors. However, the scale of the top grid of a single account is too large, which also increases the difficulty of offline measurement. One change in the offline issuance link is that the upper limit of a single institution’s subscription to the top grid has been raised to 5 billion yuan, which has greatly improved the participation of institutions. “However, limited by the new regulatory regulations, the actual purchase scale can only be the upper limit of the investor’s asset scale. It is expected that the participation scale may be greatly reduced, which undoubtedly increases the difficulty of estimation.” These people said.
Relatively speaking, online subscription enthusiasm is relatively stable. Data show that after November, the number of new households of convertible bonds online has stood firm at 10 million, and the subscription scale is basically locked at 10 trillion yuan.
The above people said that based on the above judgment, it is expected that the winning rate of Societe Generale convertible bonds may be more than 0.05%. If important shareholders give up the placement, the winning rate may be higher. A broker said that due to certain unpredictable factors in the winning rate, multiple enterprise customers are preparing more funds to strive for a higher winning rate.
However, the market also has different views. According to the estimation of the Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) fixed income team, the remaining subscription amount of Societe Generale convertible bonds online and offline may range from 17 billion yuan to 23 billion yuan, and the subscription funds range from 24.8 trillion yuan to 29.3 trillion yuan. Therefore, it is expected that the winning rate of this new bid will range from 0.058% to 0.093%.
From various perspectives, the new online investors of Societe Generale convertible bonds are expected to be “one of two households”.
the creditor’s rights transferred by banks remain high
In addition to the winning rate, the market is also concerned about the new profitability.
“When the total nominal subscription fund of Societe Generale convertible bonds is 27 trillion yuan and the remaining subscription amount is 20 billion yuan, the winning rate is 0.074%. When the increase on the first day is 6%, the expected value of online subscription income of investors with full subscription is 44 yuan and offline subscription income is 221400 yuan.” The analysis report of Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) fixed income team indicates.
Liang Fengjie, a researcher at Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) bank, said that Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) should be considered from a longer-term perspective. At present, the company is at the starting point of development in the new decade. She believes that there are investment opportunities for new assets represented by green finance in the future, which is the advantage of Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) . In addition, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) the strategic promotion speed of “commercial banks + investment banks” is expected to exceed expectations. Driven by multiple positive factors, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) ROE (return on net assets) is expected to rise in trend.
Insiders said that after the issuance of 50 billion yuan of Societe Generale’s convertible bonds, the issuance of convertible bonds of Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Chongqing Co.Ltd(601963) and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) will also follow. The weight of bank convertible bonds in the convertible bond market will remain high.
(Shanghai Securities News)
