“This year stepped on new energy sources, and stopped Baijiu in a timely manner, so by the beginning of December, it had won a total of 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market, and achieved nearly 10% yield. But recently, it has not yet managed to configure some other themes of funds, and catch up with the wave of plate movements at the end of the year.” On December 23, Jimin Xiaowang told the Huaxia times that after a “toss”, her overall return on the fund this year has fallen to 3%.
The reporter noted that near the end of the year, funds rotate frequently in hot topics, and “funds fell” related topics are also frequently searched. The reporter found from the latest report released by ant fund and 43 fund companies that about 35% of the respondents reported that they had held a fund for no more than 6 months in the past. Looking back on 2021, loss base people believe that the market trend, failure to stop profits in time and short holding time are the main factors affecting earnings.
In addition, in the report, the interviewed fund managers shared their views on the macro-economy and market situation in 2022. Looking forward to the first half of next year, 75% of equity fund managers believe that the A-share market will achieve positive returns, and 60% of fund managers expect the return range to be 0-10%.
there is still room for improvement in basic people’s investment behavior
“If I didn’t sell some new energy funds in the middle of the year, the overall yield would be higher. Of course, what I say now is’ hindsight ‘.” Jimin Wang told reporters that looking back at the fund investment in the past year, her biggest feeling is “spare money investment, watch more and move less, and try to establish a medium and long-term mentality”.
On December 21, ant fund, together with 43 fund companies, released the 2021 fund manager’s Millennium Research Report (hereinafter referred to as the report). The report conducted a questionnaire survey on 123 public fund managers and nearly 12000 fund investors, combined with a total of thousands of surveys on more than 100 fund managers in the past year.
According to the report, about 35% of the respondents reported that they had held a fund for no more than six months in the past, and about 39% had held the fund for more than one year, which is still a certain distance from the fund manager’s recommendation of holding the fund for at least one year.
In view of the old problem of “Jimin does not make money”, the loss Jimin interviewed believes that the main reason for their negative fund return is the impact of the overall market trend. 59% of the respondents choose this factor, and 35% think that the investment target of the fund manager is not selected correctly and the position adjustment is not timely. Investors believe that failure to stop profits in time, short holding time, unbalanced asset allocation, chasing up and down, and frequent transactions are also important factors causing losses, accounting for 34%, 23%, 22%, 18% and 9% respectively.
Among the core considerations of foundation selection, the top three selected by the respondents are historical income, overall asset allocation and current popular themes, accounting for 50%, 49% and 35% respectively; As for the most troublesome points when Jimin invests in funds, the top three are that there are too many fund products that are difficult to select, can not understand, and have no time to study and buy and sell, accounting for 52%, 35% and 35% respectively.
The report points out that the above data reflect that many funders still pursue the rise and hot spots in the base selection process, reflecting the significant needs of funders in the selection and trading principal-agent, which may mean that there is still a large development space for the investment consulting business of public funds launched in 2019.
However, the reporter noted that many Jimin, like Xiao Wang, have begun to gradually form a long-term investment concept. 44% of the respondents said that they want to obtain more than 20% of the future income through medium and long-term investment, and only about 25% choose to pursue high income in the short term, which means that many people have gradually become rational in their investment expectations. At the same time, when there is a loss in the holding fund, about 47% of the funders will wait for the profit to rebound before selling. As for the reasons for continuing to hold at a loss, nearly 70% of the respondents chose to “believe in the return of long-term holding”.
fund managers look at the market next year
Since the second half of last year, many fund managers have constantly reminded investors to reduce their yield expectations in the next few years. Looking back at 2021, “differentiation” into A-share market keywords, plate rotation accelerated and investment became more difficult. According to the reporter’s statistics, as of December 22, the gap between the first and last performance of active equity funds has exceeded 150 percentage points this year.
In the report, the interviewed fund managers shared their views on the macro economy and market situation in 2022. Looking forward to the first half of next year, 75% of equity fund managers believe that the A-share market will achieve positive returns, and 60% of fund managers expect the return range to be 0-10%. Among them, the performance of technology and manufacturing industries is the most expected.
For the overall market of the bond market in the first half of next year, partial bond fund managers hold more neutral views. Supported by factors such as the basic orientation of China’s economy, 76.5% of bond fund managers believe that the trend of additional allocation of Chinese bonds by foreign capital will continue. In addition, the prospect of fixed income + debt base continues to be optimistic, and those who believe that it will develop smoothly or continue to be hot are the mainstream.
Since December, the A-share market has been staged in turn. With the beginning of 2022, will “differentiation” continue? Are there few investment opportunities next year? Major fund companies have also recently released 2022 strategy reports, and many fund managers have made certain expectations for the market next year.
Jingshun Great Wall Fund believes that from top to bottom, the main line of “double carbon” is the most important structural direction of “wide credit” next year. It is expected that the central bank will accelerate the launch of structural monetary policy tools related to carbon emission reduction support next year. Among them, green energy represented by new energy vehicles, wind power, photovoltaic and energy storage, as well as core links such as automotive electronics, automotive chips and energy infrastructure, will also be one of the main investment lines of A-Shares next year.
In its annual outlook report, China Southern Fund pointed out that in 2021, the economic recovery will promote the global stock market to continue the upward trend in 2020. Looking forward to 2022, China’s manufacturing investment and infrastructure investment will continue to support economic growth. There will be a moderate recovery in the growth rate of social finance, which will support a shares, but it is unlikely to rise sharply.
“From the perspective of liquidity, next year may enter a new round of easing cycle of monetary policy. Under the background of relatively abundant liquidity, we are still optimistic about the capital market and stock market next year.” Liu Weiwei, fund manager of China Europe Fund, said at the 2022 equity investment strategy meeting that growth stocks will perform well and are optimistic about industries with low economic relevance, such as new energy, photovoltaic, semiconductor and other high-end manufacturing directions.
There are also public funds to predict the market rhythm next year. Huatai Bairui Fund believes that in the first quarter of 2022, the market is expected to usher in a turbulent market in spring, and the small market value style will continue to be strong; In the second quarter, under the background of broad credit and falling overseas inflation, the performance of A-Shares is expected to usher in an inflection point, and the time window for the layout of blue chips in the market is approaching. Around the second quarter, the current round of pig cycle bottomed out, and the logic of price increase of mass consumer goods will be more smooth at that time. By the second half of next year, with the recovery of corporate profits, advanced manufacturing and TMT are expected to emerge investment opportunities again.
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(Huaxia times)
