Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Xiangcai Securities: the traditional Chinese medicine industry has walked out of the low point it is suggested to pay attention to the areas of policy encouragement and policy haven
Policy support is the most favorable factor for the development of traditional Chinese medicine industry. Demand side, population aging, chronic diseases, cancer incidence rate rise, disease spectrum changes, as well as residents' income level raise health awareness, consumption upgrading and other factors to support the demand for Chinese medicine industry healthy and stable growth.
On the policy side, the state vigorously supports and promotes the development of traditional Chinese medicine, promotes the inheritance and innovation of traditional Chinese medicine, and adheres to the equal emphasis on traditional Chinese and Western medicine, which has brought policy dividends and new demand to the traditional Chinese medicine industry. The unique advantage of "preventing disease" brings development opportunities to the traditional Chinese medicine industry.
On the performance side, the traditional Chinese medicine industry came out of the low point and showed marginal improvement. Although the single quarter performance growth rate decreased slightly in the third quarter of 2021 due to the weakening of the low base effect, it remained in the trend of recovery channel as a whole.
On the valuation side, the traditional Chinese medicine industry has obvious absolute valuation advantages. "Policy + consumption upgrading + performance improvement + valuation advantages" jointly build investment opportunities for the traditional Chinese medicine industry. It is suggested to pay attention to the areas of policy encouragement and policy haven.
In terms of investment suggestions, (1) pay attention to the innovation of modern traditional Chinese medicine and the innovation targets of modern traditional Chinese medicine with strong R & D strength and large categories; (2) Pay attention to the advantages of brand traditional Chinese medicine, formula and raw materials, and jointly build a moat of brand traditional Chinese medicine; (3) Benefit from consumption upgrading and pay attention to the subject matter of industrial chain extension and strong brand advantage. []
open source Securities: optimistic about the investment opportunities of traditional Chinese medicine track with policy support, determined performance and high valuation and cost performance
In terms of policy, traditional Chinese medicine, as a kind of drugs with Chinese characteristics, has always been supported by national policies; From the perspective of the volume procurement of Chinese patent medicine that has been implemented, the centralized purchase price is not expected to decline like a cliff, but to ensure that traditional Chinese medicine enterprises have a certain profit space based on its cost, and the main sales channel of brand traditional Chinese medicine OTC is at the retail end rather than public medical institutions, which has a high price maintenance ability.
In terms of fundamentals, most brand OTC enterprises of traditional Chinese medicine have maintained a stable growth of revenue of 10% - 20% in the past few years, and are expected to usher in the second growth curve through category expansion and marketing channel reform.
In terms of performance, in 2021, many brand Chinese medicine OTC enterprises formulated equity incentive plans to fully motivate core employees and have great certainty of performance growth.
In terms of valuation, as of December 22, 2021, the 2022epe of traditional Chinese medicine sector was 33.7 times, lower than 34.3 times of the overall pharmaceutical and biological industry, which has the valuation cost performance.
In terms of recommendation and benefit targets, considering policy immunity, valuation cost performance and performance certainty, the recommended targets: Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600285) , Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600535) ; Beneficiary objects: Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Dong-E-E-Jiao Co.Ltd(000423) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Furui pharmaceutical, Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) . []
Shanghai Securities: digital medicine is expected to open a new era " epidemic beneficiary stock " value return
In the era of changing situation, we have won the stars in the grand pattern. Change 1: the trend of payment policy is becoming more and more obvious, and bottom innovation + global sales has become the only way. Change 2: with the deepening of aging, digital medicine is expected to open a new era. Change 3: the return of the value of "epidemic beneficiary stocks".
In 2021, the pharmaceutical sector is still in a changing era, and the determination of medical insurance fee control will be clearer under the background of centralized procurement + DRG acceleration; The change of population structure has brought about the demand release of "silver economy"; The covid-19 epidemic situation is complex, and the so-called "epidemic beneficiary stocks" have opened a new era of development based on good cash flow.
In 2022, the main investment line of the pharmaceutical health sector can focus on bottom innovation, global sales, digital medical treatment and the return of the value of "epidemic beneficiary shares". We need to focus on enterprises with high policy immunity, compound national population and inclusive medical policies and independent innovation ability.
Investment focus can be focused on: Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Yidu technology, Iray Technology Company Limited(688301) , Shanghai Kindly Enterprises Development Group Co.Ltd(603987) , Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) , Cofoe Medical Technology Co.Ltd(301087) , Baiji Shenzhou, Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress Co.Ltd(688131) , Jiangsu Sinopep-Allsino Biopharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688076) , Maider Medical Industry Equipment Co.Ltd(688310) , Autek China Inc(300595) , Nanhua Bio-Medicineco.Ltd(000504) , Anxi biology, etc. []
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : the logic of pharmaceutical high-end manufacturing is constantly strengthened optimistic about global advantages and industrial upgrading
Under the basic construction of review, approval and centralized purchase negotiation policies, the reform of payment system is accelerated, and the policy closed loop is expected to be formed. Industrial upgrading is deepened, industrial chain thinking is strengthened, innovation Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain and manufacturing upgrading are optimistic, and technological iteration and expansion of consumption are concerned.
[innovation frontier]: innovation is still the most important direction. In 2022, more attention will be paid to innovation and industrial chain layout. 1) Upstream industrial chain services: optimistic about the upstream demand explosion brought by new technologies and new therapies, including scientific research reagents Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Jenkem Technology Co.Ltd(688356) , Shanghai Aladdin Biochemical Technology Co.Ltd(688179) , Shanghai Titan Scientific Co.Ltd(688133) ; Cro enterprises Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) ; Model animals: Nanmo biology, jijiyaokang, baiaosaitu, etc. 2) Terminal products and technological innovation: we are optimistic about the leader of innovative drugs and biotech, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Xinda biology, Baiji Shenzhou, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) , Haisco Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002653) ; Innovative instruments include xianruida medical, Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) , Aohua endoscopy, Xianjian technology, minimally invasive Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , etc.
[made in China]: as a traditional manufacturing power, with the deepening of medical reform, China has continuously strengthened the logic of high-end pharmaceutical manufacturing, and is optimistic about global advantages and industrial upgrading. 1) Cdmo / CMO: the double strong track combining innovative service and manufacturing advantages is still in the upswing. In 2022, we will focus on performance acceleration and event catalysis. We are optimistic about leading Yaoming biology, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , and rapidly expanding Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) . 2) Characteristic API: the inflection point is established and the global competitive advantage is clear. In 2022, we are optimistic about Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) , etc. 3) Equipment and consumables: the acceleration of domestic substitution driven by innovation provides a good opportunity for the epidemic. We are optimistic about the leader Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , and pay attention to consumables service providers Zhejiang Gongdong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(605369) , Shenzhen Changhong Technology Co.Ltd(300151) , Guangzhou Jet Bio-Filtration Co.Ltd(688026) ; Optimistic about production equipment enterprises Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Sensong international, Maider Medical Industry Equipment Co.Ltd(688310) .
[consumption upgrading]: the expansion of medical services is optimistic about Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , haijiya medical and Jinxin reproduction; The technological innovation and demand growth of domestic vaccines are optimistic about Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) ; And chain pharmacies, brand traditional Chinese medicine, etc. []
Great Wall Guorui Securities: the valuation of the pharmaceutical industry is lower than the historical average focus on four investment opportunities
With the official release of the national medical insurance catalogue in 2021, the centralized purchase of national drugs and high-value consumables continues to be promoted and normalized and institutionalized, and the three-year action plan for DRG / Dip payment method reform is officially released. In the future, quality and cost control will still be the main theme of the pharmaceutical policy.
The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical industry sector is still lower than the historical average level and slightly higher than the negative double standard deviation level. The current valuation has significant allocation advantages. We suggest increasing the allocation proportion of the industry and paying attention to investment opportunities in four aspects: first, drugstore chain companies with reasonable valuation and stable recovery; The second is the CXO industry, which has undergone in-depth adjustment recently. Against the trend, it pays attention to companies with sufficient orders and reasonable current valuation; Third, focus on the target of high-quality white horse stocks with better than expected performance in the third quarter; Fourth, pay attention to the consumer medical section. Under the background of medical insurance fee control, the ophthalmology and dental sub industries with consumption attribute have policy immunity, and consumption upgrading will drive their development. []
Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) : strong demand for medical infrastructure in the post epidemic era
The Q1 base caused by the covid-19 epidemic in 2020 is low. The stock price of the pharmaceutical industry will decline with the performance in 2021. We expect that the performance fluctuation caused by the epidemic in 2022 will gradually subside, and the apparent performance growth of the pharmaceutical industry is expected to rebound from the bottom after Q1 in 2022. At present, the valuation of the pharmaceutical industry is 32 times, which is in the bottom range of the past 10 years. In addition to the pharmaceutical fund, the pharmaceutical position in H1 is 11.24%, which is also at a historically low level. We believe that the pessimistic expectation of the policy has been basically released, and the pharmaceutical industry is expected to restructure its valuation in 2022. Investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical industry in 2022 may be reflected in the following four directions: first, the importance of basic scientific research and upstream raw materials is upgraded, and domestic substitution is accelerated; Second, drugs and devices are globalized, and innovation + globalization breeds large market value enterprises; Third, the global pharmaceutical manufacturing capacity has migrated to China, and China's cdmo field has grown rapidly; Fourth, in the post epidemic era, there is a strong demand for medical infrastructure, and medical equipment infrastructure is the first force. []
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : traditional Chinese medicine sector is still an important part of investment in the pharmaceutical industry exposure of related subjects
In terms of industry trend, with the encouragement of top-level design and policies, the traditional Chinese medicine market will still show a steady growth trend. However, in recent years, under the background that the traditional Chinese medicine industry has also been strengthened by policies and is about to enter national mining, the reshuffle of the traditional Chinese medicine industry has been irreversible. Facing the coming great changes in the industry, it is imperative for traditional Chinese medicine enterprises to accelerate their diversified transformation. In the transformation direction, the synergy effect of the transformation health field is the best and the effect is the fastest. The most direct benefit is that traditional Chinese medicine enterprises with strong brand build a large health industry through brand extension.
The traditional Chinese medicine sector is still an important part of the investment in the pharmaceutical industry. After years of adjustment, the valuation of the traditional Chinese medicine sector is also at the bottom. Most traditional Chinese medicine enterprises have been at a trough in the past three years, and the valuation has been lower than the overall PE of biomedicine for a long time. It is recommended to pay attention to the reversal of the bottom in the performance of traditional Chinese medicine companies with brand influence and the valuation repair brought by the C-end logic verification. In terms of relevant targets, the time-honored brands of traditional Chinese medicine: Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Guangyuyuan Chinese Herbal Medicine Co.Ltd(600771) etc; High brand added value: China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Jiuzhitang Co.Ltd(000989) , Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600285) etc; Featured brands: Dong-E-E-Jiao Co.Ltd(000423) , Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600993) , Renhe Pharmacy Co.Ltd(000650) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603439) , etc. []
Ping An Securities: the internal circulation of traditional Chinese medicine some traditional Chinese medicine varieties have obvious consumption attributes
The internal circulation of traditional Chinese medicine is dominated, and the consumption attribute of some traditional Chinese medicine varieties is obvious. The traditional Chinese medicine sector has obvious internal circulation characteristics in terms of drug planting, drug production and terminal consumption, and is not affected by external policies towards China. OTC varieties of traditional Chinese medicine are similar to food and beverage products and have obvious consumption attributes. First, it focuses on the off-site market, does not occupy medical insurance, and is less affected by centralized mining; Second, the enterprise has certain independent pricing power and has the expectation of price increase.
It is suggested to pay active attention to the traditional Chinese medicine sector and stock selection ideas: 1) the target with stable fundamentals, sufficient adjustment and high valuation cost performance; 2) Mainly OTC varieties, low proportion of traditional Chinese medicine injections and strong R & D ability of new traditional Chinese medicine; 3) The consumption attribute is strong, and the core products should have the expectation of price increase. Based on the above analysis, it is recommended to pay attention to Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600285) , Kpc Pharmaceuticals Inc(600422) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600993) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Guangyuyuan Chinese Herbal Medicine Co.Ltd(600771) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Hainan Huluwa Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(605199) , etc. []
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It is suggested to pay active attention to the traditional Chinese medicine sector and stock selection ideas: 1) the target with stable fundamentals, sufficient adjustment and high valuation cost performance; 2) Mainly OTC varieties, low proportion of traditional Chinese medicine injections and strong R & D ability of new traditional Chinese medicine; 3) The consumption attribute is strong, and the core products should have the expectation of price increase. Based on the above analysis, it is recommended to pay attention to Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600285) , Kpc Pharmaceuticals Inc(600422) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600993) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Guangyuyuan Chinese Herbal Medicine Co.Ltd(600771) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Hainan Huluwa Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(605199) , etc. []
