At the end of the year, China’s major securities companies will issue a prospect research report on the A-share market in the coming year. We compile their views into charts to help you clarify your investment ideas. But before presenting the conclusion, I feel it necessary to emphasize one point with my partners.
The time span of 2022 investment strategy report released by various securities companies is very long. It was first released on November 2, and may not be released at the latest .
The capital market is changing rapidly. No one can say when a certain news will appear in the market, which is enough to affect the medium and short-term trend of A-Shares or the future investment logic of an industry .
For example, at the end of November, everyone thought that the covid-19 epidemic had been controlled and the global economy would accelerate its recovery.
Unexpectedly, a mutant strain, Omicron, blocked the process of economic recovery.
For example, on December 6, the central bank announced an overall reduction of 0.5 percentage points, which made people’s expectations of loose market liquidity more positive .
Although these events are unlikely to fundamentally reverse the long-term trend of a shares, they will inevitably affect brokers’ prediction of short-term trend .
Therefore, when looking at the views of securities companies , we should also pay attention to the release time of the Research Report .
Just look at the following pictures. The previous date is the corresponding release date of this research report.
market outlook
In order to make you more intuitively feel the changes of the market outlook theme of various securities companies over the years, the market outlook theme for nearly three years is summarized.
From the perspective of the outlook theme, the most prominent change is: there are fewer and fewer “cattle” in the outlook theme.
in 2020, there will be 6;
From to 2021, there are only four (of which Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) is still used as “cow back”;
in 2022, there is only one left.
Since the outlook topics are more implicit, if you want to fully understand the outlook of securities companies on the future market, you have to look at core view .
From the core point of view, many securities companies believe that the market will face greater inflationary pressure next year, the pace of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve is close, and the marginal tightening of overseas liquidity may suppress the risk preference of a shares, index level will not have much systematic market;
However, with the support of China’s steady growth policy, monetary policy and financial support are more positive , so there are still investment opportunities, more structural market .
When sorting out the core views, Ji Long got a very interesting discovery, that is, there are differences of opinion among securities companies on the issue of “whether the market is better in the first half or the second half of next year” .
Six securities companies are more optimistic about the market in the first half of the year, including Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) ,
In terms of quantity, there are slightly more brokers optimistic about the market in the first half of the year.
optimistic about the industry
In 2022, which sector do securities companies think has more investment opportunities?
the answer is [technology].
In the investment strategy reports of 26 securities companies sorted out, each securities company mentioned investment opportunities in the science and technology sector.
However, [technology] belongs to a very broad industry concept, which includes too many industries. Maybe the small partners still feel a little confused.
Then, specific to the subdivided fields of the science and technology sector, the most frequently mentioned are new energy / new energy vehicle industry chain, photovoltaic, semiconductor, military industry, wind and solar power, energy storage and other subdivided industries. The optimistic logic is mainly “double carbon” goal + domestic substitution + high prosperity continuation .
there are also many securities companies optimistic about the [consumer] industry , especially under the background of vaccine popularization next year and the epidemic is expected to be controlled, leisure services, airports and other sectors damaged by the “epidemic” are expected to rebound.
It should be noted that in the market outlook for 2021, there are not a few securities companies optimistic about the [cycle] sector;
In 2022, there is an obvious change, that is, there are not many securities companies optimistic about the [cycle] sector.
In the research report, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) also said that “is relatively bearish on China’s traditional cycles, such as coal, steel and shipping”.
That’s the summary of the A-share market outlook of 26 securities companies in 2022~
I wonder if you have more confidence and confidence in tomorrow’s investment after reading it?
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(GF)
