I. there may be deviations in market views
The market index fluctuated and sorted, and subject stocks generally stepped back. The market is in the stage of releasing risk preference, and the market is expected to remain volatile before the end of December. Strategically, try not to chase high opportunities for strong themes.
II. Market sentiment monitoring
Good track decision express sentiment index is currently reading 46, in the shock zone. The geihe sentiment index has fallen from its high on December 22, and the recent stock index is mainly based on range shocks, which means that the current market sentiment has become more and more cautious. From the perspective of behavioral analysis, when market sentiment is cautious, it means that investors have low willingness to participate in trading. When the sentiment index is in the shock zone, investors are advised to wait patiently for the market direction [refer to the instructions for the use of sentiment index] (updated on December 23, 2021).
III. deviation analysis
On the disk, hot topics enter the release stage of killing and falling emotions after rising (cloud games are the representative direction, or independent demon stocks), while on the other hand, institutions that have passively reduced their positions in the early stage choose to protect the disk against the trend (from power, automobile, electrical equipment, etc.). In terms of the main capital flow, the institutions have reduced their positions in some software stocks and real estate stocks with strong short-term performance, but they have not further returned to the direction of long centralized shareholding after the reduction. Therefore, the current market is in the stage of stock reduction.
The short-term stock shock game before the end of December is in line with our expectations. We believe that the current concern is whether the restless market in spring will appear. Further, at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, whether the newly issued funds wait for adjustment and then intervene or directly enter the market to promote the market, and whether the structural opportunity of the restless market in spring continues to focus on the direction of institutional shareholding, the direction of repeated attention of risk preference funds, or other directions that may exceed expectations. I believe this is what investors are generally concerned about.
On the whole, our view is that as the last week of December approaches, some hot funds begin to choose profit taking. The market may have no sustainability in the ability of institutions to do long, while the operation rhythm of risk preference capital cooling resonance is mainly. Therefore, we believe that at this stage, we should focus on relative returns and try to avoid the short-term quilt risk brought by chasing up theme stocks. Focus on whether food, agriculture and forestry with capital changes will become stage defense opportunities.
(Bandung securities network)
