2021 is the first year of PV parity on the Internet, but it has encountered the dilemma of soaring prices in the industrial chain. The bidding price of centralized power station components once exceeded 2 yuan / W. In the face of unstable factors in the industrial chain, China's installed capacity this year is lower than expected. However, capital's enthusiasm for photovoltaic is still high. As of the closing on December 22, there are 9 A-share photovoltaic companies with a market value of 100 billion.
Near the end of the year, the photovoltaic industry, which is singing all the way, suddenly changed. The silicon chip leader took the lead in reducing the price under the condition that the silicon material price remains unchanged. There are not only the factors of dumping inventory, but also the consideration of putting pressure on new players of silicon chips through reducing the price. All kinds of signs mean that the competition in the silicon link is intensifying. Such an internal trend is still spreading upstream. Recently, a number of newly planned 100000 ton silicon material projects have surfaced. Whether silicon material will be surplus has been a common topic in the industry. In this way, will photovoltaic be more "roll" next year?
Of course, the photovoltaic industry can still expect something. Judging from the forecast of global installed capacity next year, it is basically 200GW. In addition, the technological transformation of photovoltaic continues, the cost of n-type cells represented by TOPCON and hjt (heterojunction) will be further reduced, the technologies such as large silicon wafer and granular silicon will be more mature, and the economy of photovoltaic power generation is expected to be improved again.
many companies with a market value of 100 billion have emerged
This year, the key words of the photovoltaic industry are bound to rise in price. Due to the tight supply of silicon materials and the crazy rush of new silicon wafer players, the price of silicon materials soared from about 80000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to the highest 270000 yuan / ton, and the price of typical 166 silicon wafers increased by nearly 90% from the level of 3 yuan / piece. In this round of market, silicon material manufacturers made a lot of money, and silicon wafer manufacturers also maintained a high gross profit margin.
The most injured are undoubtedly the batteries, components and power station operators. Around the fourth quarter of this year, the bidding price of China's centralized power station exceeded 2 yuan / W. however, the price rise eventually exceeded the affordability of downstream demand. The feedback obtained by the reporter shows that the rush to install at the end of the year that we had expected has failed. According to the data of the photovoltaic Association, the new installed capacity in China this year is about 45-55gw, lower than the previously expected 55-65gw, which is mainly affected by the lagging issuance of indicators and rising prices.
In the face of rising prices, the contradictions in the photovoltaic industry have also been made public. The most intense one was in June this year, Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) reported Tongwei and other manufacturers in front of national ministries and commissions, saying that some enterprises hoard and bid up prices. Due to being on the cusp of the storm, silicon manufacturers such as Tongwei, Daquan and poly GCL did not attend the recent annual conference of China's photovoltaic industry.
For the impact of photovoltaic price rise, the industry has repeatedly warned that it is necessary to pay attention to the reverse bite of terminal demand contraction on the upstream. However, judging from the performance of the capital market, the photovoltaic sector has experienced twists and turns in the past year, but the trend is upward. As of the closing on December 22, the market value of several A-share companies exceeded 100 billion, namely Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) . The total market value of the sector exceeded two trillion yuan.
There is a sharp contrast between the current situation of the photovoltaic industry and the performance of the capital market, and there are different opinions on the reasons behind it. Some believe that the downstream profit expectation has improved during the price reduction of the industrial chain in June and December this year; Others see that the promotion policy of reorganizing the county has been promoted, which will change the PV installation pattern dominated by large ground power stations in the past, and the development of distributed PV has opened up space for the industry.
Regardless of right or wrong, the promotion of the whole county is indeed a big change in the photovoltaic industry this year. According to the data, the proportion of new installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic in China increased from 12.25% in 2016 to 32.2% in 2020 and 58.8% in the first half of this year. At present, the total grid connected volume of distributed photovoltaic power generation accounts for only 32.59% of the cumulative grid connected scale of photovoltaic power generation, and there is still a lot of space in the future.
In the interview, many people in the industry talked to reporters about a point of view - in the face of the "double carbon" goal, even if the price of the industrial chain is still high at this stage, power station investors dominated by central enterprises and state-owned enterprises will have greater power to develop new photovoltaic power station projects. In fact, after the introduction of the promotion policy of the whole county, central enterprises and state-owned enterprises that rarely set foot in distributed projects in the past also began to change direction.
the industrial chain needs coordinated and balanced development
Recently, the photovoltaic industry has undergone new changes. "Embracing silicon as the king" is a hot word in the market at the beginning of 2021, and silicon material manufacturers have absolute pricing power; However, under the temptation of high gross profit, the silicon material market pattern may usher in great changes. Recently, three off-site players announced that they would enter the silicon market, namely Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , Jiangsu Sunshine Co.Ltd(600220) group and Xinyi solar energy.
Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) is the leader of industrial silicon. Industrial silicon is the raw material for manufacturing polycrystalline silicon. The company plans to invest 35.5 billion yuan in Urumqi to build a silicon-based new material industry integration project, involving silicon-based new materials, polycrystalline silicon, etc; Xinyi solar energy is a global leader in photovoltaic glass. It plans to build a polysilicon project with an annual production capacity of 60000 tons in Qujing, Yunnan, and may increase the production capacity to 200000 tons in the future.
Although the above two companies do not have polysilicon business at present, they are still in the photovoltaic industry chain. The difference is Jiangsu Sunshine Co.Ltd(600220) group, which currently focuses on wool spinning and clothing. It plans to invest 35.15 billion yuan to build projects with an annual output of 100000 tons of polysilicon in Bayannur, Inner Mongolia.
In terms of established manufacturers, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) recently announced an investment plan of 33.25 billion yuan, involving industrial silicon projects with an annual output of 300000 tons and polycrystalline silicon projects with an annual output of 200000 tons; In addition, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) the existing silicon material production capacity is 180000 T / A, which will be promoted to 330000 T / a next year; Xinte energy and poly GCL also have production expansion plans.
Because silicon material belongs to the chemical industry and has high requirements for the safety of the production process, there has been no new supplier of silicon material for a long time in the past. According to LV Jinbiao, deputy director of the expert committee of the silicon branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, after intensive production in the fourth quarter of 2022, there will be excess silicon supply in 2023; According to the data, the global silicon output will reach 1.95 million tons in 2023, and the converted photovoltaic output will reach an amazing 696gw.
The probability of silicon excess is the "grey rhinoceros" event, and a similar scene has taken place in the silicon wafer market. In the past month, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) lowered the silicon wafer quotation twice and Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) also lowered it once. Industry analysts and leading manufacturers have made judgments to reporters that the silicon wafer market will usher in a price war next year, and the current price reduction is only a starter.
The factor triggering the short-term price reduction is that the rush loading at the end of the year is less than expected, and the leading silicon wafer manufacturers need to clear their inventory; In the long run, many new players have poured into the silicon wafer market. In the process of price increase, all manufacturers can basically make money, and the cost difference has little impact. After the industrial chain returns to normal, the leading manufacturers put pressure on the second and third tier manufacturers by reducing prices, which also tests the latter's actual cost control ability.
The photovoltaic industry has always had a high upstream threshold and a low downstream threshold. With the continuous spillover of technology, the degree of involution in the upstream is also deepening. In the new round of capacity expansion, there are phenomena such as excessive advance and irrational investment again. Therefore, whether the photovoltaic industry can avoid disorderly competition in the future depends on whether the industrial chain can truly realize coordinated and balanced development.
technological innovation promotes the industry to further reduce costs
The two logics driving the development of photovoltaic industry are demand and supply. The core of supply is the improvement of efficiency and the reduction of cost, which all depend on the innovation of photovoltaic technology. From the actual situation of the industry, the research and development of photovoltaic technology is in a very cutting-edge position. In the short term, breakthroughs are expected to be made in n-type cells, large silicon wafers and granular silicon.
At present, the power generation efficiency limit of mainstream p-type perc photovoltaic cells is about 24.5%. The market pays more and more attention to n-type cells. The two most potential branches are TOPCON and hjt. In essence, TOPCON is the transformation and upgrading of the existing perc battery production line, which continues the life cycle of the existing perc production line by producing more efficient TOPCON batteries.
Compared with the transition technology attribute of TOPCON, hjt is more favored by the market. Since the second half of this year, the conversion efficiency of hjt battery has made a significant breakthrough in both laboratory stage and mass production stage, with more than 26% in laboratory and more than 25% in mass production. However, the main problem faced by hjt at this stage is that the cost is too high. According to the data obtained by the reporter from the industrial chain, the investment scale of 1GW perc production line is about 200 million yuan, while the investment scale of 1GW hjt production line is about 400 million yuan, which has fully doubled.
Of course, this has not stopped the enthusiasm of Chinese manufacturers to put hjt into production. In terms of production line suppliers, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) have won large orders for hjt. Recently, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) has also completed a fixed increase of 2.8 billion yuan and plans to add hjt battery equipment. As manufacturers of batteries and components, Anhui Huasheng and Jiangsu Akcome Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002610) are supporters of hjt.
A battery manufacturer told reporters that with the cost reduction of hjt's main material silicon wafer and silver slurry consumption, it is expected that hjt can realize that the cost of batteries and components will be lower than perc by 2023. The reporter learned that hjt has high requirements for low-temperature silver slurry technology. Chinese manufacturers have been able to supply domestic low-temperature silver slurry and are developing alternative technologies such as silver clad copper, which is conducive to further cost reduction.
Since 2019, the size of silicon wafers has rapidly iterated. Since then, 158 and 166 have occupied the mainstream, and now 158 has been basically eliminated, and the share of 166 silicon wafers in new bidding projects has also shrunk sharply. The competition pattern of large silicon wafers has formed a confrontation between the 210 camp led by Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) and the 182 camp led by Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) .
An analyst who asked not to be named told reporters that 2022 will be an important window to observe the actual cost and quality of Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) 210 silicon wafers. If the cost is low enough, it will be a great disadvantage for new silicon wafer manufacturers, and even pose a threat to Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) which mainly promotes 182 silicon wafers at this stage.
It can be predicted that after the influx of large-scale production capacity in the silicon wafer sector, some large-scale production lines that cannot be upgraded may face early elimination next year, which has also been agreed by many parties. In addition, Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) recently launched 218 super large silicon wafers for the first time, which is interpreted as a dimensionality reduction blow to 182 silicon wafers. Due to the short launch time, the impact remains to be seen.
The change of photovoltaic technology is also reflected in the silicon material link. At present, poly GCL, Shaanxi Tianhong and other enterprises stand in line for silane vulcanization bed polycrystalline silicon, commonly known as granular silicon, which is tit for tat with the improved Siemens bulk polycrystalline silicon insisted by mainstream silicon material manufacturers. One of the main advantages of granular silicon is its low cost. From the perspective of China's development, granular silicon will not be really used for the test of single crystal cells until September 2020. After the application and a small amount of capacity release in 2021, next year will be an important year to observe the actual landing of granular silicon.
At the beginning of November, poly GCL's new 20000 ton granular silicon project was put into operation, and the company's granular silicon production capacity reached 30000 tons. Next year, Xuzhou's 54000 ton granular silicon production capacity will be released. Shaanxi Tianhong granular polysilicon has achieved 10000 ton supporting supply with leading photovoltaic enterprises in the province in less than one year. With the continuous development of bilateral cooperation, the product application will continue to deepen in the future.
At the beginning of the application of granular silicon, there were many doubts in the market, such as many surface impurities, only doping, unable to meet the needs of n-type battery, etc. The relevant person in charge of poly GCL told reporters that the use of granular silicon crystal drawing has stabilized the quality parameters of silicon rods, reduced the crystal drawing cost, and the products fully meet the requirements of n-type high-efficiency batteries. From the perspective of the capacity scale of the whole industry, the proportion of granular silicon is still very small. With the release of new capacity next year, it will become increasingly clear whether granular silicon can find a way out.
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(Securities Times)
