Today (December 23), the three major A-share indexes opened higher, weakened rapidly at the beginning of the session, and then maintained repeated shocks. On the whole, the performance of the Shanghai index and Shenzhen composite index was stronger than that of the gem index. From the disk point of view, resource stocks such as power, hydrogen energy and coal have made a comeback, the performance of military industry, automobile and other sectors is outstanding, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that under the overall stable tone of market liquidity, the short-term trading opportunities in the market may gradually increase with the stabilization and upward of the index. We can actively pay attention to the popular themes in the current market, such as meta universe, green power and environmental protection, and look for individual stock opportunities. Operationally, as 2021 draws to a close, the market may be able to open the industry valuation improvement expectations with clear performance context, and actively pay attention to the trading opportunities of individual stocks with clear growth expectations.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[topic I] power
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that the new power system brings structural opportunities. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, we expect the total power grid investment to increase steadily. However, in order to solve the problems of large-scale access to new energy, change of load structure, large penetration of power electronic equipment and so on, the power grid investment will focus on grid construction, intelligent distribution network, digitization, pumped storage and so on, This brings new opportunities. The growth space is opened under the background of wind power carbon neutralization. The domestic substitution of industrial control continues, and the leader is always strong.
In addition, open source Securities pointed out that the wind power industry has stood at a new starting point. After the parity of onshore wind power and offshore wind power in the past two years, the industrial chain has entered a new stage of market-oriented development. After the onshore wind power parity in 2021, the trend of cost reduction driven by large-scale units is obvious, and the supply chain pattern is further optimized; Offshore wind power is expected to be parity in 2022, bringing incremental space to the industrial chain. Looking forward to the future, we are mainly optimistic about three aspects: (1) core parts enterprises that can go global or realize domestic substitution, and benefit targets: Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) ; (2) In the next few years, it is expected to realize the offshore wind power industry chain spanning from 1 to 10, benefiting the following subjects: Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) ; (3) Benefit from the whole machine leader with accelerated installed growth in 2022, and benefit targets: Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , etc.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) believes that in the short term, the trend of large-scale fan is significant, and the overall cost is expected to decline; With the continuous promotion of large-scale landscape base projects and the acceleration of offshore wind power cost reduction, the wind power landscape is expected to be improved. In the medium and long term, wind power is one of the alternative forms of energy to achieve “carbon neutrality”, and we continue to be optimistic about the installed demand and development space of the wind power industry. Pay attention to the investment opportunities in the following links: 1) the wind power landscape continues to rise, and look forward to the opportunities of domestic components under the trend of large-scale and pattern change, such as tower, main shaft, casting, blade and so on; 2) Optimistic about the profit recovery link under the price adjustment of raw materials; 3) Optimistic about the domestic replacement of precision parts such as spindle bearings; 4) Be optimistic about the opportunities under the change of whole machine link pattern and technology change; 5) The cost of offshore wind power continues to drop, and the demand is expected to continue to increase. We are optimistic about marine products, submarine cables and other related links. []
[Topic 2] hydrogen energy
Minsheng securities mentioned that the hydrogen energy industry is a trillion level industrial chain, involving many links. Policy: at present, the hydrogen energy industry chain is in the cultivation stage, and the policy is the first. 1) In the process of production, storage and transportation, under the guidance of the “double carbon” strategy, the top-level design of hydrogen production and storage is expected to have policy preference, and there is a lot of room for green hydrogen to replace gray hydrogen. 2) In the application of fuel cell vehicles, under the policy of “replacing subsidies with awards”, the first batch of declarations of Shanghai, Beijing and Guangdong have been passed, and Shenzhen New Land Tool Planning &Architectural Design Co.Ltd(300778) clusters will join in the future, so the industry has entered a period of rapid development.
Huaxin Securities said that hydrogen fuel cells, as Beijing Dynamic Power Co.Ltd(600405) an important supplement to lithium batteries in the future in the field of new energy vehicles, are of great significance. In the short term, hydrogen fuel cells are in the industrial introduction period, and more are β Investment attributes. At present, fuel cells are suitable for long-distance heavy-duty and commercial vehicles. With cost reduction and technology improvement, they are expected to continue to promote their application in the field of passenger vehicles in the future. We believe that their long-term application prospects are very broad and are an emerging field worthy of high attention in the medium and long term.
Ping An Securities believes that the hydrogen energy industry has become an important part of China’s energy strategic layout. China has become the world’s largest producer of hydrogen, but at present, hydrogen mainly comes from gray hydrogen (fossil fuel), but the by-product hydrogen of chemical process has low cost and large output, and matches with hydrogen energy demonstration cities, which is the most realistic hydrogen source in the short term; With the promotion of the carbon market, the demand for green hydrogen is gradually increasing. In the future, the production of green hydrogen from electrolytic water supporting large-scale photovoltaic power generation or wind power generation will become a trend. []
[Topic 3] coal
Cinda Securities pointed out that the central economic work conference in December reiterated “based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, pay attention to the clean and efficient utilization of coal, increase the consumption capacity of new energy, and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy.” In the upward trend of the industry boom, the leading coal enterprises rely on their own resource / capital / technology endowment advantages to promote the energy revolution, layout transformation and upgrading, new growth poles or repay shareholders, and can improve the income level of investors in the long term. At this stage, the industry fundamentals, the underlying logic of the policy and the direct effect are favorable for the repair and improvement of the valuation of the sector. Considering the certainty of the high growth of the industry’s performance in the fourth quarter and the first half of next year, it is the best stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) believes that the first batch of medium and long-term contracts signed in 2022 coal fair exceeded 260 million tons. Shanxi has carried out medium and long-term contract signing, and there is a great possibility of raising the benchmark price. This coal price increase may also accelerate the market-oriented reform of electricity price, and the overall profitability of coal enterprises will be improved in the future. In the short term, we believe that the policy regulation risk, coal price adjustment risk and real estate demand side decline risk of the coal sector are fully released, and we are optimistic about the rebound of the sector.
Huajin Securities said that coal enterprises have accumulated undistributed profits for many years after the supply side reform, but due to factors such as carbon neutralization, the investment in the main coal industry is strictly limited. Based on this background, enterprises have spontaneously explored new fields. Through combing, this round of transformation is mainly focused on new energy and new materials. Among them, new energy includes wind power, photovoltaic and hydrogen energy. New materials include energy storage, modern coal chemical industry, etc. Back to the perspective of equity, the current industry fundamentals are solid, corporate profits are strongly supported, and the valuation is also low. In the process of performance improvement driving valuation repair, the transformation may give listed companies more imagination. []
[theme 4] military industry
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that attaching importance to the medium and long-term growth logic of military industry, this round of market is far from over. On the one hand, there is a big gap between China’s national defense strength and economic strength at the present stage. China needs a large number of new weapons and equipment to make up for its military shortcomings, and the national defense investment is expected to continue to grow. On the other hand, advanced military technology has spillover characteristics. The military technology incubated by military enterprises has great civil value and can be extended to many industries such as semiconductors, civil aviation, commercial aerospace, new energy, consumer electronics, smart cars and smart homes. There is a huge market space for both military and civil uses. Finally, in recent years, conflicts continue in some parts of the world, countries with weak military industry have strong demand for military trade products, China has a complete military scientific research and production system, excellent performance and competitiveness of military trade products, and its share in the international military trade market is expected to continue to increase. The military industry has a broad market space, and the super military industry is at the right time.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) believes that the current industrial capacity construction of the national defense industry is in a rapid climbing period, and the scale effect and equity incentive will continue to promote the improvement of industrial operation and release profit elasticity. Considering that in the military industry, products have the characteristics of small batch, multiple varieties and long cycle, and the release of new capacity is conducive to opening up the capacity bottleneck in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, matching the large-scale production of batch production models and the batch production nodes of new models, the whole industry will usher in the improvement of capacity utilization brought by the optimization of product structure (small batch and multiple varieties affect capacity allocation), At the same time, superimposed with the decline of marginal cost under the scale effect after the climbing of new products (including the reduction of fixed cost allocation and the decline of variable cost caused by manufacturing upgrading), the profitability of the industry will enter the track of continuous improvement on the basis of large volume.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) mentioned that the growth rate of the military industry is second to none, with outstanding growth compared with other industries. In particular, 2021-2023 is the key to speed up the industry. The compound growth rate is expected to exceed 30%, and the growth rate of subdivided fields is higher. On the valuation side, the CSI military industry index is at the 54.55% quantile in the past five years. On the whole, the military industry has many investment opportunities in aviation, missiles, informatization and other fields, and still has high medium and long-term investment value. []
