Affected by multiple factors, the A-share market fluctuated in 2021, continuing the structural market. Near the end of the year, the trend of A-share market in 2022 has become the focus of investors.
2022 is the year when cattle meet tigers in the lunar calendar. Can the A-share market continue its power?
From the latest annual strategy reports released by more than 30 securities companies such as Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) , China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) , Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) , "long bull", "slow bull" and "structural bull" appear frequently. Some optimists predict that the Shanghai index will reach 4200 points in 2022. The collation school says that the Shanghai index will still fluctuate from 3300 points to 3700 points, while the cautious believes that 2022 will usher in the first pressure year since the "slow bull on the financial supply side".
optimists:
The stock index rose to 4230
From the strategy report of securities companies in 2022, optimists occupy the mainstream.
According to the statistics of the reporter of Securities Daily, a total of 14 securities companies remain optimistic about the A-share market in 2022, of which 7 predict a bull market in 2022.
"From the perspective of the operating characteristics of the A-share market, one year's plan lies in spring. It is expected that the A-share market will also deduce the 'spring agitation' market in 2022, and the daily trading volume is expected to continue the scale of trillion yuan." Based on this, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) put forward the title of "high-quality development cow".
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) when looking at the market performance in 2022, it said that under the dual disturbance of high inflation and cyclical decline of earnings, A-Shares may usher in consolidation in the long bull. This does not change the general trend of China's long-term equity investment era. Short-term twists and turns are the driving force for the long-term rise of savings.
Anxin Securities said that it is expected that the "structural bull" trend of A-Shares in the medium term of 2022 will continue, supported by three factors: first, China's economic transformation and upgrading and the upward movement of roe center of high-quality enterprises; The second is the rise of policy stability and the rise of valuation center; The last is the allocation of residents' assets and additional rights and interests.
Debon securities is more optimistic. It is expected that the overall A-share return will reach 10% to 25% in 2022, which will impact a record high.
Guokai securities, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) and Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) all mentioned "slow bull".
The theme of the strategy report of CDB securities is "slow bull stumbles". It believes that although the downward pressure on macroeconomic growth is still large, the annual GDP growth rate will still be slightly higher than that in the fourth quarter of this year. In the direction of stabilizing the economy, the monetary policy is in a loose trend, the micro liquidity is expected to maintain a net inflow, and the consistency of earnings growth of listed companies is expected to exceed 10%, The market risk premium is in the middle. Under the condition that there is room for downside of risk-free interest rate, the market has the opportunity of positive income throughout the year.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) when looking at the market performance in 2022, it is said that the substantive leap of economic transformation has opened the era of slow bull in equity with rich structural opportunities. It is expected that the Shanghai stock index will show a slow bull pattern, but the structural bull market will be normalized.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) the prediction of the economic situation in 2022 is that the global economic recovery has changed from fast to stable, chase inflation is difficult to reproduce, commodity prices are likely to fall, liquidity is expected to remain loose, the old and new transformation of economic kinetic energy is faster and faster, and the mature A-share market begins to have the conditions for long bull and slow bull.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, believes that 2022 will continue the slow bull and long bull market and is expected to become a big year of value investment. He told Securities Daily: "From the perspective of cost performance, the investment risks of US stocks are gradually emerging, while A-Shares and Hong Kong stocks are in a global valuation depression. In 2022, A-Shares will continue the structural market, improve the profit-making effect, and the Shanghai stock index will continue to expand space upward. Value investment will gradually gain popularity, high-quality leading stocks show a restorative rise, and once again become the key varieties of capital allocation. We should focus on the two aspects of consumption and technology Direction. "
Although seven other securities companies did not mention the word "cow" in the strategy report, they were full of confidence in 2022.
Among them, Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) predicts that the fluctuation space from low point to high point of the market in 2022 is about 25% - 30%, and the probability of high point from 4150 to 4230 is high. Bohai Securities believes that the operation center of Shanghai stock index is expected to rise to 3800 points in 2022, or between 3500 points and 4100 points.
According to Zhang Xia, chief strategist of China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) strategy, A-Shares will have net incremental funds of more than 640 billion yuan in 2022, the degree of structural differentiation will converge, and the growth rate of social finance will stabilize and recover, which will drive A-Shares to usher in a new round of upward cycle starting point in the third quarter of next year.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , Ping An Securities, Dongguan securities and China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities are also optimistic about next year. The overall view is that in 2022, economic growth will return to rebalancing, inflation risk will tend to ease, and factors such as marginal improvement of liquidity at the beginning of the year, fine-tuning of policies, and incremental capital allocation demand caused by the policy expectation of the "two sessions" are superimposed. The A-share market is expected to change the sideways pattern and usher in a volatile upward trend.
sorting School:
or the current "n" shock trend
The consolidation group also accounts for a high proportion in the strategy report of securities companies in 2022. They believe that the A-share market will still be a volatile consolidation market in 2022.
Zheng Lei, chief economist of Baoxin finance, predicted in an interview with Securities Daily, "Although there are still covid-19 virus variants, after two years of epidemic test, the anti epidemic experience accumulated by various countries has been enough to deal with the epidemic, the global economy will gradually get rid of the impact of the epidemic, and social life will gradually return to normalization. Therefore, it is expected that A-Shares will have a great chance to rise in the first half of 2022."
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is expected that the operation of A-Shares in 2022 will be divided into two stages. In the first half of the year, the cross cycle policy promoted the economy to return to the normal before the epidemic. The focus of the policy was stable growth, reasonable and abundant macro liquidity, the overall improvement of A-Shares and more opportunities. We should focus on the rise of high-quality blue chips; In the second half of the year, the monetary policy turned to steady and neutral under internal and external constraints, and the profitability of the non-financial sector was under pressure under the high base number, and the market performance was flat.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities has given the point prediction range in the 2022 A-share investment strategy report, and it is expected that the Shanghai stock index will fluctuate between 3300 and 3700. It believes that in the first half of 2022, the policy uncertainty will decline periodically, and the restlessness in spring is expected to take over the next year's market. However, after the turbulent market in spring, the economic downturn and profit pressure will be further highlighted. At the same time, the loose policy is expected to have stronger concentration and restraint than in the past. Therefore, the market rising potential may be subject to short-term constraints and is expected to return to the range shock pattern. In the second half of 2022, with the economy slowly stepping out of the pressure zone and the decline of economic policy uncertainty, the market is expected to gradually recover.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) holds a neutral and positive view on the A-share market in 2022. It is suggested to grasp phased and structural opportunities according to the changes of main contradictions in the market. When the policy of steady growth is strengthened, the index may usher in phased opportunities.
The reporter found that for the stock index trend in 2022, most of the predictions of the sorting school are based on the "n" trend.
Chen Mengjie, chief strategic analyst of YueKai Securities Research Institute, told the Securities Daily that the logic supporting the "n" trend of A-Shares next year mainly has three aspects: first, the economic level is in the downward stage, running to the bottom area by 2022, with upward expectations, while the developed countries are in the downward stage of the inflection point of stimulus policy exit and liquidity tightening. Secondly, the policy support is expected to increase, and a number of policies will be issued to stimulate and boost the economy. Third, next year's liquidity is in the stage of marginal easing, and some forward-looking indicators have been shown in advance. "Looking at the world, China's capital market is a global bright capital market." Chen Mengjie said.
cautious:
unspeakable trend upward opportunity
Some securities companies are cautious about A-Shares in 2022.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) said that the profit growth rate of A-share enterprises fell sharply in 2022. Under the conduction of "overseas stagflation (forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates) - tight global supply chain - China's export toughness - decreased demand for steady growth", the range of "policy bottom" in 2022 may not exceed market expectations, and it is difficult to form effective hedging at the denominator. Therefore, A-Shares will usher in the first pressure year since the "slow bull on the financial supply side" in 2022.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) said that A-Shares will continue the wide shock pattern in 2022, and the shock center is expected to rise slightly. However, for the market, the fundamental portfolio in 2022 will give strong support to a shares, so there is no significant downward risk in the market, but it is also difficult to say the opportunity of upward trend.
"In 2022, the index will show a V-shaped shock with great twists and turns, but the outcome is OK." Cinda Securities believes that due to the reasonable valuation, the proportion of institutional investors in the investor structure has increased significantly, and the proportion of consumption and growth industries has increased, the stock market will only fall intensively in one to two quarters, and most of the decline can be recovered at the end of the year.
Huachuang Securities believes that in 2022, the stock market is in the process of finding the economic bottom. At the beginning of 2022, the policy force will be significantly accelerated, and the rate of economic decline will also be marginally slowed down. In this time window, valuation is expected to become a key factor in determining investment.
market style:
is growth leading or value king?
Optimists, reorganizers and conservatives debated the general trend of a shares. Although they have different views, they mostly hope for structural opportunities.
So, what will be the style of the A-share market in 2022? How should investors seize structural opportunities?
According to Chen Mengjie, "In 2021, in the main line of recovery, upstream Pro cyclical varieties will be the focus of stage allocation, and the recovery of demand side and supply bottleneck will jointly push up the price of bulk commodities. At this stage, upstream cyclical products will benefit the most; in 2022, the focus of A-share allocation will gradually tilt to the 'middle and lower reaches', and the improvement of supply-demand relationship will bring profit restoration to the middle and lower reaches of the industry along with the decline of inflation. At present, the China's economy is undergoing transformation and development. Common prosperity and "carbon neutrality" are the main lines of long-term policies. With the gradual clarity of the realization path and the gradual implementation of relevant supporting policies, industries such as large consumption, new energy and green finance are expected to usher in long-term development opportunities. "
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that in terms of A-share allocation next year, the short-term is balanced, the allocation is gradually inclined to the middle and lower reaches, and the medium-term is partial to growth. We should not only pay attention to the opportunities brought by macro cyclical fluctuations and policy dislocation, pay attention to the opportunities brought by the mitigation of upstream price pressure, but also pay attention to some structural trends.
"In 2022, the growth opportunity is still there, and the value returns to the stage." Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) believes that in terms of growth, there are still opportunities for prosperity, but it is difficult to run through the whole year. The market rhythm depends on liquidity expectations, and spring is the key observation point; In terms of value, the stability of profit superimposes the repair trend, and the value will return to the center of the stage of style configuration. In terms of consumption, the attribute of "weak cycle" provides certainty in the process of economic slowdown. In history, under the environment of "weak growth + weak easing", the return on consumption is relatively good; In the manufacturing industry, the scissors gap between PPI and CPI converges, and the rhythm and intensity of profit restoration will exceed market expectations.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) said that China's economy will run smoothly in 2022, liquidity will remain neutral and loose, and blue chips and growth stocks will have excellent performance.
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(Securities Daily)
