Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) : triple strong periodic resonance boost the independent rise of automobile market
Triple strong periodic resonance, boosting the independent rise of the big market. Cycle 1: the chip alleviates the need to replenish the library. We expect that with the gradual recovery of chip shortage, 2021q4 ~ 2022q4 will enter the cycle of continuous improvement in production and sales year-on-year. In 2022, the annual passenger car production / wholesale sales / traffic compulsory insurance sales will be 23.04/2314/21 million respectively, corresponding to + 10.4% / + 9.6% / + 2.5% year-on-year. 1) The rigid demand for passenger cars will return, and it is expected to return to the peak level in 2017 by 2025; 2) Historical low inventory of passenger garage + chip mitigation in 2022 and channel inventory replenishment.
Cycle 2: the independent brand EV / PHEV / fuel market rises in an all-round way. We expect that the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles / sales volume of traffic compulsory insurance in 2022 will be 6 / 5.48 million respectively, and the penetration rate will be 25.9% / 26.1% (15.6% / 13.4% in 2021). The market share of independent brands is 48.7% / 47.1% (44% / 40% in 2021).
Cycle 3: the globalization process of independent brands accelerates. We expect that China's export will continue to grow to 1.84 million vehicles in 2022, a year-on-year increase of + 22.4%, and is expected to exceed 5 million vehicles in the long term by 2025. 1) Southeast Asia / South America / Eastern Europe / South Asia and other markets are expected to become the first stop for independent brands to go to sea. Factory production + model introduction will help improve sales; 2) The Western European market is expected to contribute an important increment, and electrification is the core breakthrough for independent brands to enter the Western European market.
In terms of investment suggestions, the whole vehicle sector: recommend [ Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) + ideal car + Xiaopeng Car + Byd Company Limited(002594) + Geely car + Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) + Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) + Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ], and pay attention to [Weilai Car + Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) + Xiaokang Car + Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) ]. Parts: recommend [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) + Foryou Corporation(002906) + Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) + Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) + Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) + Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) + China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) + Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ], pay attention to [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) + Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) + Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) + Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) ]. []
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : sorting out the investment targets of smart cars, new energy vehicles and Tesla industrial chain
Smart car track combing: car intelligence can be divided into outside intelligence (ADAS) and inside intelligence (Intelligent cockpit). Specifically, ADAS is divided into perception layer (sensors, cameras, etc.), decision-making layer (chips, operating systems, etc.) and execution layer (chassis by wire, air suspension, etc.) according to the industrial chain; In car intelligence is represented by intelligent cockpit products such as central control large screen, HUD head up display and voice interaction. We suggest paying attention to the localization opportunities of key links in the intelligent vehicle industry chain: (1) air suspension, and the gradual implementation of mass production of core parts [ Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Tianrun Industry Technology Co.Ltd(002283) ]; (2) Chassis by wire, layout [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Zhejiang Vie Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002590) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) ] of braking by wire, and [Nextel] of steering by wire; (3) Intelligent cockpit, layout [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Foryou Corporation(002906) ] of central control screen, HUD, domain controller, etc., intelligent [ Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) ] of car seat, intelligent interior [ Jiangsu Changshu Automotive Trim Group Co.Ltd(603035) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ], and vehicle audio upgrade [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ]; (4) Intelligent exterior decoration: layout [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) ] of intelligent lamps, and "four doors and two covers" micromotor supplier [ Ningbo Hengshuai Co.Ltd(300969) ].
New energy vehicles: since 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles has continued to grow rapidly. We estimate that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2021 and 2022 will be 13% and 19% respectively, and the corresponding sales volume will be 3.5 million units and 5.3 million units respectively. It is suggested to pay attention to the incremental parts with "three electricity" as the core, as well as the upgrading track of vehicle lightweight and thermal management: ① battery field: [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (covered by new electricity group), Mianyang Fulin Precision Co.Ltd(300432) ], etc; ② Motor electric control field: [ Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) , Zhuhai Enpower Electric Co.Ltd(300681) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Jing-Jin Electric Technologies Co.Ltd(688280) , Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) (covered by the new electric group)]; ③ Automobile lightweight: [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , AGCO, Zhejiang Jingu Company Limited(002488) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ]; ④ Automobile thermal management: [ Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ].
Combing Tesla's industrial chain: according to the data of the ride Association, Tesla's wholesale sales in China reached 52859 in November, which was the third consecutive month that Tesla exceeded 50000 monthly sales. Tesla's production and sales have expanded steadily, and its upstream suppliers will continue to benefit and have solid support in performance. In addition, domestic parts suppliers growing with Tesla are expected to cut into more new energy customer supporting systems and open growth space in the future with the help of Tesla's high starting point and first mover advantages in the field of electrification. We recommend paying attention to Tesla's Chinese suppliers [ Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Jiangsu Changshu Automotive Trim Group Co.Ltd(603035) , Shanghai Daimay Automotive Interior Co.Ltd(603730) , Ningbo Huaxiang Electronic Co.Ltd(002048) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) (covered by the home appliance team)], and potential Tesla suppliers [ Zhejiang Jingu Company Limited(002488) , Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) ]. []
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) : new energy has strong long-term certainty focus on core parts with leading technology
New energy has strong long-term certainty and focuses on core parts with leading technology. The promotion of subsidy policy, double credit policy, online car Hailing to power transfer, traffic restriction and purchase restriction and other relevant policies will promote the growth of demand for new energy vehicles from the consumer side and the manufacturing side. At the same time, from the technical side, new energy vehicles can meet the travel needs of most people, and the price continues to decline, which has a certain cost performance. It is expected to gradually replace the fuel vehicle market. It is suggested to find high-quality targets from power battery parts enterprises with extensive enterprise cooperation and leading technology.
Overall, China's macro-economy has recovered steadily. China's automobile market is in the transition stage from the initial stage of popularization to the later stage of popularization. New car sales have gradually shifted from the incremental market to the stock market, and automobile exports have exceeded expectations. At present, the technology of new energy vehicles is gradually mature, and intelligence gives new energy vehicles more premium space. Compared with fuel vehicles, the price of new energy vehicles has a certain cost performance, and the industry space has been greatly improved. There are no lack of structural investment opportunities in the industrial chain, maintaining the industry rating as "optimistic". Stock selection suggestions for the automotive industry: 1. Focus on the vehicle leader with continuous leading market share and perfect product matrix; 2. Focus on new energy vehicles and vehicle intelligence, start with the high-quality industrial chain, look for high-quality targets from top to bottom, and pay attention to Tesla industrial chain and lithium battery industrial chain. It is suggested to pay attention to: Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) . []
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : " short term cycle upward + medium and long term independent rise + new technological change " automobile market under triple superposition "
The rise of independent parts and components has not ended the plate market. The parts sector increased by more than 20% from October to early December, mainly due to the upward industry cycle and the first repair of sector valuation. With the recent correction of the parts sector, the market is worried that the market of the parts sector has ended. We put forward different views. The automotive industry is facing historic changes, and the penetration of global new energy vehicles is accelerating. At the same time, the intelligent driving function is gradually mature. It is expected that L3 level intelligent driving will be rapidly popularized in the next 3-5 years. In the process of industry reform, on the one hand, the competition pattern will change, on the other hand, new technologies will be widely used, which will produce huge investment opportunities.
We believe that the current round of automobile market is a triple superposition of short-term cycle upward + medium and long-term independent rise + new technology change. The market interpretation should be a new opportunity brought by the general rise of the plate to complete the valuation repair - the double improvement of high-quality individual stock performance and Valuation - new technology. Therefore, after the short-term correction, it is suggested to find high-quality stocks with high growth in the future and new directions in line with the industrial trend.
In terms of investment suggestions, passenger cars: the main line of the rise of independent brands continues to be deduced, with emphasis on Byd Company Limited(002594) , Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Xiao Peng, ideal and Wei Lai. Parts and components: focus on Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) (passenger car seat), Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) (integrated die casting), Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , and focus on Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) (lightweight), Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Cwb Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(605005) . []
Bohai Securities: the development of intelligent automobile industry shows an accelerated trend it is suggested to pay attention to two main lines
With the continuous improvement of chip supply and the decline of the high price of main raw materials, China's strict prevention and control makes the epidemic free from the risk of large-scale spread, and the good trend of industry recovery remains unchanged. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities under the current logic of industry recovery. In terms of new energy vehicles, under the expectation of double score assessment and the decline of subsidies next year, it is expected that the production and sales of new energy vehicles will continue to hit a new high by the end of the year; Meanwhile, if the tax credit policy of up to US $12500 for electric vehicles and bicycles in the United States is subsequently passed in the Senate, it will significantly boost the sales expectation of electric vehicles in the United States. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the latest progress. To sum up, we are optimistic about: 1) China's entry into and binding with Tesla, Volkswagen and other international automobile enterprises, as well as companies with new car manufacturing forces and strong independent brand supply chain, such as Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ; 2) Enterprises entering the supply chain of leading battery manufacturers at home and abroad, such as Panasonic, LG Chemical, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and ferdi battery, such as Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) . In addition, we are optimistic about independent auto companies that continuously improve their technology and stand out in the fierce competition, such as Byd Company Limited(002594) , Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) .
In terms of smart cars, the current cooperation between technology giants and car enterprises continues to advance. In the future, China's smart electric car market will show a diversified competition pattern. With the subsequent significant increase in China's smart car supply (such as aionvplus, Xiaopeng P5 / G9, Great Wall salon mechatron, etc.), the industrial development shows an accelerated trend. It is suggested to pay attention to two main lines: 1) thematic opportunities in Huawei's auto industry chain, Such as Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) and Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) ; 2) The demand for cameras, millimeter wave radar, lidar and other sensors will continue to increase, and the penetration rate of intelligent lights / intelligent cockpit / air suspension will continue to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) . []
Wanlian Securities: focus on suppliers of electrified and intelligent auto core parts
With the gradual easing of the shortage of automobile chips and the recovery of consumer demand at the end of the year, it is expected that the automobile production and sales volume will further increase in the fourth quarter. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities for the expected improvement of performance brought by high-quality automobile parts suppliers with the recovery of downstream vehicle sales and the decline of raw material prices. In terms of new energy vehicles, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in November was 450000, with a year-on-year increase of 121.1% and a month on month increase of 17.3%. The penetration rate of electric vehicles continued to improve. The sales volume of new energy vehicles this year is expected to reach 3.4 million, and it is expected to exceed 5 million next year.
On December 18, Weilai released the new et5 model, with a starting price of 328000 yuan before the subsidy and 258000 yuan before the baas scheme subsidy. It is expected to compete directly with BBA and other entry-level fuel vehicles. It uses nioautomousdriving Weilai to drive automatically. It has 33 high-performance sensing hardware, including 1 ultra long-distance high-precision lidar, 7 8-megapixel HD cameras Four 3 million pixel high-sensitivity special cameras for look around, etc., with the technical ability of full stack automatic driving, and gradually realize the full coverage of driving, power change and other scenes. It can be seen that the price of electric vehicles with high configuration is constantly falling, which is expected to further promote the purchase demand of consumers, and the electrified and intelligent configuration of electric vehicles is relatively high. Therefore, it is suggested to pay attention to the suppliers of electrified and intelligent core parts that benefit from the rapid development of new energy vehicles and the continuous improvement of penetration rate in addition to the core three electricity. []
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : focus on Byd Company Limited(002594) , Tesla and companies with high income of new forces among downstream customers
It is estimated that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will reach 5 million in 2022, and the speed of electrification & intelligence will be increased. 1) At the "2022 China auto market development prediction summit" held recently, the China Automobile Association predicted that the total sales volume of Chinese cars in 2022 would be 27.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, of which the sales volume of new energy vehicles would be 5 million, a year-on-year increase of 47%. 2) We are more optimistic about Chinese supply chain enterprises with better R & D speed, response speed and service capacity. At the same time, considering the long fixed-point cycle of models, it is recommended to pay attention to the companies with high income of Byd Company Limited(002594) , Tesla and new forces among downstream customers. []
Dongguan Securities: the follow-up inventory replenishment trend appears drives the demand of parts and components to continue to repair
Recently, China Automobile Association released the automobile production and sales data in November. Under the high base of the same period last year, the automobile production and sales in November still decreased year-on-year. However, with the improvement of chip supply, it has achieved growth month on month for three consecutive months. It is expected that the production and sales in December are expected to continue the month on month growth momentum. The follow-up inventory replenishment trend appears, which will drive the demand of parts and components to continue to repair. New energy vehicles maintained a high growth trend, and the production and sales volume reached a record high. It is suggested to focus on global competitiveness, actively transform to electric intelligence, and benefit from the elasticity of demand replenishment after the improvement of chip supply: Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) , Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) ; And the core targets of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry chain with favorable industrial support policies: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) . []
