Today (December 23), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a narrow shock in the morning. In the afternoon, the stock index rebounded and strengthened, especially led by the Shanghai 50 index, which prompted the stock index to get out of the obvious tail raising market, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
In this regard, Guosheng Securities pointed out that under the overall stable tone of market liquidity, the short-term trading opportunities in the market may gradually increase with the stabilization and upward of the index. We can actively pay attention to the popular themes in the current market, such as meta universe, green power and environmental protection, and look for individual stock opportunities. Operationally, as 2021 draws to a close, the market may be able to open the industry valuation improvement expectations with clear performance context, and actively pay attention to the trading opportunities of individual stocks with clear growth expectations.
At the same time, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that the expectation of steady growth and policy force will continue to rise, but there are serious differences in funds at the end of the year. We should be vigilant against the retreat risk of strong theme stocks and focus on low absorption in operation. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to green power, new and old infrastructure, consumption, new energy, etc. in terms of technology stocks, we can pay appropriate attention to VR, folding screen, etc.
plate:
I. Baijiu
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) pointed out that during the Spring Festival sales next year, liquor enterprises will still arrange dealers to make payments in advance, and the progress of industry payments will be advanced as a whole. As the overall dynamic sales in the Mid Autumn Festival this year is relatively stable, the industry is conservative in the prediction of dynamic sales in the Spring Festival next year, but we judge that the industry will still maintain a relatively stable growth and pay attention to the layout and release of high potential energy enterprises in the early stage next year.
Huachuang Securities believes that the short-term game of funds is intensified and the information expectation is disturbed greatly. At present, the core of investment decision-making is to jump out of the complex information disturbance, clarify the key problems of the industry, and get off to a good start. It is expected that the performance in the first quarter will be solidly supported. Near the end of the year Baijiu plate news frequently, the market expects to change faster, and the recent financial level is more complex, magnifying the game of plate sentiment.
Caixin Securities said that under the guidance of leading prudent operation, the industry fundamentals remain stable, the characteristics of structural prosperity will continue in the future, and there are investment opportunities worth exploring in each price band. In the context of the slowdown in macroeconomic trends, the growth of high-end Baijiu is more scarce. The growth of the top three strong / five / LV is expected to accelerate.
Baijiu Baijiu, the long time of high-end liquor evaluation has experienced a long time. With the liquidity constraints and policy risk worries, the valuation of high-end liquor has experienced a long time. Considering that the fundamentals of high-end liquor have strong support, the consumption tax has limited impact on high-end brands of liquor brands, and the valuation of the Baijiu liquor brings opportunities for high-end liquor distribution.
For the high-end Baijiu, the matching of growth, certainty and valuation should be considered. Secondary high-end liquor enterprises with good brand foundation, outstanding channel management ability, clear business strategy and strong internal vitality are expected to more smoothly realize the logic of high-end + nationalization, so as to continuously release the performance flexibility; Liquor enterprises with poor channel inventory sorting may face speed reduction, so they need to focus on tracking the real dynamic sales of products and channel inventory.
Other Baijiu, from bottom to top, dig stocks, focusing on the size of regional leaders to enhance market share, high-end product volume brought about by the elasticity of performance, and incentive mechanism reform to stimulate the vitality of the company's internal role. Recommend Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , and pay attention to Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) .
2、 pork concept
Open source securities mentioned that when the layout of the pig cycle is "warm at first and cold at first", the disturbance factors of the capacity removal trend tend to weaken. According to the agricultural and rural data, the number of fertile sows in the industry decreased by 2.5% month on month in October. It is expected that the number of fertile sows in the monitoring samples of the Ministry of agriculture will still maintain a wide decline range in November, which is expected to be 1.0-1.5%. The stock index of fertile sows of the Ministry of agriculture is expected to fall to 88.3-87.9, equivalent to 91.5% - 91.9% at the end of 2017. Based on the obvious mismatch between supply and demand in 2022h1 industry, we believe that the pig price is expected to fall below the industry cost line again in January 2022, the industry will fall into a loss again, and the disadvantageous capacity will show obvious signs of acceleration in this stage. We believe that from June to July 2022, the industry's production capacity is expected to be more than 15% higher than the high level from May to June 2021, supporting the emergence of a new round of pig cycle price reversal.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) pointed out that under the support of the peak season, it is expected that the short-term pig price is difficult to fluctuate sharply, and the market will remain volatile before the Spring Festival. Judging from the perspective of cycle, the turning point of cycle reversal still needs to wait for the pace of capacity removal. According to the data of China Feed Industry Association, the national pig feed output in November 2021 was 11.41 million tons, an increase of 4.6% month on month. It turned positive again month on month. The recent rebound in pig prices may delay the pace of capacity removal at this stage. In addition, the possible outbreak of non plague, diarrhea and other epidemics under the extremely cold weather conditions in winter this year may cause the passive de production of the industry, and the farmers' active de production after the spring festival may accelerate or bring the inflection point of cycle reversal to appear in advance. Multiple variables still need continuous attention. In terms of import, the Tariff Commission of the State Council announced that the import tax rate of pork will be restored from 8% to 12% from January 1, 2022. With the increase of China's pig supply, it is expected that the import demand and actual import will continue to decrease. In the dimension of investment main line, close to the end of the year, focus on the phased results of cost reduction and efficiency increase of enterprises, recommend focusing on the aquaculture head enterprises with obvious advantages in cost control, and then focus on the second-line and small American Standard enterprises with great expected improvement and growth certainty.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said that for pig breeding, the short-term production capacity shows a trend of de industrialization. In the first half of next year, the pig price may hit the bottom twice, and the market value of listed pig enterprises fell to the historical bottom, so as to grasp the investment opportunities on the left side of the plate; The long-term benefits are concentrated on a large scale, and there are still overtaking opportunities for the capacity expansion of listed pig enterprises.
In addition, in the meat and poultry industry, the upstream supply pressure of white chicken is still large, the industrial chain is in deep loss or forced to reduce the upstream production capacity, pay attention to the production capacity adjustment rhythm of chicken farms, the long-term industrial chain extension is expected to bring valuation remodeling, and pay attention to the integration leader; The upstream production capacity of yellow chicken has shrunk significantly, and it is expected to continue to pick up in 2022, so as to grasp the growth dividend of chilled products for a long time.
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