On the morning of December 22, Zhixin Investment Research Institute, a well-known Chinese wealth management institution, grandly released the macroeconomic outlook report for 2022 at China Financial Information Center on the Bank of Huangpu River in Shanghai. Professor Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin investment and President of the Research Institute, made an in-depth interpretation of the report.
The press conference had in-depth exchanges and discussions with Lian Ping and the report writing team on the hot issues concerned by the market, such as the Fed's interest rate increase process in 2022, China's economic growth prospects, whether there is an inflection point in the real estate market and so on.
Lian Ping pointed out that in 2022, the repeated epidemic, global inflation, the tightening of monetary policies in the United States and Europe and the rise of populism will be the four major challenges facing the world economic recovery and China's economic growth. Among them, the Fed's interest rate hike in 2022 will bring new uncertainty to China's economy. the hot economic operation and high inflationary pressure will push the Federal Reserve to promote the process of raising interest rates after the end of taper in March. It is expected that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates once from May to June, raising the target range of the federal funds rate to 0.25% - 0.5%. however, due to the low labor participation rate and constraints of political factors, the magnitude and pace of the Fed's interest rate hike may not be too radical. Whether to continue to raise interest rates depends on changes in the U.S. economic environment, and there are still variables.
with the support of many favorable policy factors, 2022 is expected to become China's "infrastructure year". first, credit extension was strengthened and project approval was moderately relaxed. the meeting of the Political Bureau and the central economic work conference made it clear that we should ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure, accelerate the progress of expenditure, and carry out infrastructure investment moderately ahead of schedule. second, high-quality projects are gradually increasing. it is expected to focus on transportation infrastructure, energy, agriculture, forestry and water conservancy, ecological environmental protection, social undertakings, urban and rural cold chain and other logistics infrastructure, municipal and industrial park infrastructure, major national strategic projects, affordable housing projects, etc. In addition, it will also focus on the short board field of promoting regional and regional coordinated development and urban pipe network construction involving major people's livelihood. third, the issuance of special bonds has a "pre effect". there is a time difference between the issuance of special bonds and the formation of physical workload, which generally takes about one to two quarters, which means that the acceleration of the issuance of special bonds in the fourth quarter of 2021 will gradually show its effect in the first quarter of 2022. On the basis of the front rhythm of special bond issuance, the infrastructure investment in 2022 will have a good performance.
in 2022, the real estate market may move from overall downward to gradual stabilization. The development of the real estate market will highlight the new positioning of "better meeting the reasonable housing needs of buyers", which may show changes in five aspects: first, the sales of commercial houses will slow down , and the growth rate of advance receipts will drop from 9% to 6.6% in 2022. second, the land market shows a trend of falling volume and rising price . It is expected that the national land purchase area will decrease by more than 30% year-on-year in 2022, and the land transaction price will rise sharply year-on-year. third, new construction may hit the bottom and rebound . The situation of new construction in the first half of next year is still not optimistic, and the new construction in the second half of next year is expected to rebound driven by the improvement of the margin of development loans. Fourth, the growth rate of real estate investment will further slow down . In 2022, the investment in real estate development will be about 15.59 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5% in nominal terms and an average growth rate of 5% in two years. fifth, the new pattern of supply-demand relationship may lead to a trend of first inhibition and then increase in house prices . It is expected that house prices will hit the bottom and rise from the end of the third quarter to the beginning of the fourth quarter of next year, the year-on-year decline of new houses is about 1.5%, and the house prices of second-hand houses are basically the same as those in 2021.
From the main driving forces driving economic growth: on the one hand, the performance of foreign demand is relatively flat. exports will still be resilient in 2022, but the growth margin will slow down. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of exports will be 10% and the year-on-year growth rate of imports will be about 9%. On the other hand, there are many highlights of domestic demand. driven by the acceleration of infrastructure investment and the rapid repair trend of manufacturing investment, the investment in fixed assets is expected to increase by about 6.5% in 2022; At the same time, the factors supporting the rapid recovery of consumption will increase in 2022, and the retail of social consumer goods is expected to return to the potential growth level before the epidemic.
Lian Ping predicts that China's economic growth is likely to exceed expectations in 2022. Under the background that the Politburo meeting and the central economic work conference have made clear the "stable" economy and loose policy guidance in 2022, and the government continues to introduce policies conducive to counter cyclical regulation and stable growth, it is expected that China's economic growth will be low before and high after 2022, the growth rate will return to the normal level quarter by quarter, and it is finally expected to achieve a growth of about 5.7%, higher than the expected target.
(voice of Securities Daily)
