From December 21 to 22, 2021, the third centralized land supply and land shooting in Hangzhou for two days ended, and all 35 residential plots (including one leased land) were sold.
The land auction has a total transfer area of 1.762 million square meters, a total construction area of 4.161 million square meters, and a total starting price of 71.29 billion yuan. 70% of the plots hit the highest price and entered the lottery link the next day. According to the statistics of China Index Institute, the final transaction amount was 76.28 billion yuan. This year, the local auction market in Hangzhou received more than 300 billion yuan.
The participation of real estate enterprises has also become diversified. The participation enthusiasm of local real estate enterprises such as green city China (03900. HK, hereinafter referred to as “green city”), Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) (002244. SZ) and Dexin is high; In addition, there are many foreign real estate enterprises taking land, such as Shanghai Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600638) , Weixing and Shenzhen tefa, which are new faces entering the Hangzhou market for the first time. Of course, central enterprises are still active. China Resources won a homestead and a commercial complex plot, and merchants joined hands with Beijing Science and technology park to win the plot of canal new town.
Even Greentown, where most of the plots have been registered, can only collect four plots in the bag. This time, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) has also obtained four plots, distributed in Shangcheng District, Binjiang District, Xiaoshan District and Qiantang district.
Song Hongwei, research director of Tongce Research Institute, believes that combined with the second centralized land supply in Hangzhou, the overall market was cold at that time, which also has a certain relationship with the strict land auction policy. Therefore, the land auction policy in Hangzhou has been adjusted recently. The reason why real estate enterprises can actively take land is that Hangzhou has restarted the land hook policy, made full communication with real estate enterprises before pushing land, and the pre-sale price in Hangzhou has broken the original restrictions. The pre-sale price of many plates has increased to varying degrees, which has also increased the expectation of the future price of real estate enterprises.
substantial modification of soil auction rules
On the premise that the upper limit of the premium rate was reduced to 10%, the overall premium rate of the third centralized land supply land auction in Hangzhou was as high as 7%, and 70% of the plots reached the ceiling price and entered the lottery link. 24 plots were auctioned to the upper limit of 10% premium rate, reaching the top and entering the offline lottery link. 9 plots were sold at the base price and 2 plots were sold at a premium, with a total turnover of 75.954 billion yuan.
Looking back at the second centralized land supply in Hangzhou, the land auction market was cold: the transfer of many plots was terminated before the temporary auction, and 17 plots were sold, with the highest premium rate of only 11.04%. No plot was photographed with a ceiling premium, let alone self-sustaining.
There are reasons for the rise in the popularity of local auction in Hangzhou. Hangzhou has made comprehensive and substantial changes to the game rules of the third local auction. Specifically, it has increased the price limit of new houses; The land listing policy of “pre announcement” has been restored, the transfer fee payment cycle has been extended, and the capital pressure of real estate enterprises to participate in auction has been reduced; Cancel the “competitive quality and limited sale of existing houses” and replace it with fixed quality; The upper limit of land premium rate was reduced from 15% to 10%, and the deposit was reduced from 20% to 10% of land price, with a maximum of no more than 50 million; After reaching the ceiling price, it will no longer compete for self-supporting or matching construction, and lottery can save more profits for real estate enterprises; The starting price of some plots was reduced.
Although 70% of the plots were capped and traded at a premium, affected by the reduction of the upper limit of the premium rate to 10%, the actual transaction price of most plots decreased. In suburban plates such as Gongshu, Shangcheng, West Lake and Xiaoshan, the land price decreased by 4% to 20%, and the average land price decreased by about 2000 yuan / m2.
Take the Gongshu Qinglong Xiaohe plot with the highest floor price as an example. After 27 rounds of bidding, this plot reached the top and entered the lottery stage. The transaction floor price was 34611 yuan / m2, while the transaction floor price of the surrounding plots had reached 36100 yuan / m2, and the actual decline in floor price was 1489 yuan / m2. This plot of land was shaken by the local aboveground group in Hangzhou.
The first “offline public lottery” in the history of Hangzhou local auction held on December 22 decided to finally win the real estate enterprises by means of table tennis lottery. The number of plots registered by local real estate enterprises in Hangzhou is large, and the hit rate of lottery is also increased accordingly. Green city won three homesteads: Binjiang xiangqifang, Xiaoshan North and future science and Technology City 2.0; Binjiang, together with Zhonghao, Jianhang and Xingyao, won three plots: Jianqiao in the east of the city, Xixing in Binjiang and Shushan in Xiaoshan.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, believes that the recent capital and sales data of Greentown and Binjiang are very good; Hangzhou’s land market was previously cooled by the impact of the environment. After modifying the rules, the land auction premium rate was lowered, which objectively helped real estate enterprises control land costs and increased their willingness to participate.
In the view of most people in the industry, it is expected that the local shooting temperature in Hangzhou will pick up. Lu Wenxi, an analyst at Shanghai Zhongyuan market, pointed out that recently, the warm wind in the real estate market has been blowing frequently, the credit port has been loose, the issuance of pre-sale certificates has been accelerated, and the sales speed has increased. All these increase the confidence of real estate enterprises in obtaining land. The key is that the third centralized land supply reduces the transfer threshold and leaves a certain profit space for real estate enterprises. Analysts at Kerui Research Center pointed out that the third centralized land supply in Hangzhou has obviously warmed up. In addition to the relaxation of its own local auction rules, it is also greatly related to the recent policy environment. Recently, the people’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued a notice proposing to increase bond financing support, Clearly support high-quality real estate enterprises to register and issue debt financing instruments in the inter-bank market and raise funds for mergers and acquisitions of risk disposal projects of key real estate enterprises, which undoubtedly brings a more positive signal to the capital end of real estate enterprises and boosts the confidence of the market to a certain extent. Therefore, looking forward to the next third round of land auction cities, under the relaxation of land auction rules and the improvement of capital environment, the heat of land auction will rise to a certain extent.
In addition, song Hongwei also pointed out that when local finance faces certain pressure, it will also increase its dependence on the local auction market. According to public information, over the past three months, Hangzhou’s general public budget revenue has continued to be less than fiscal expenditure.
suburban plots of provincial capital cities are concerned
The transaction price of Yuhang hangteng future community plot jointly won by Longhu and Zhejiang trading and tendering was 8.824 billion yuan, becoming the highest price plot for the third centralized land supply in Hangzhou. This plot is sold at the reserve price. In fact, in the third centralized land supply in Hangzhou, the initial floor price of some plots decreased significantly. Most of these plots are distributed in the suburbs of the city.
Previously, Jianqiao plot in Shangcheng District, which was terminated in the second centralized land supply, appeared on the third centralized land supply list. In addition to canceling the existing house sales requirements, the proportion of public rental houses in Hangzhou was reduced from 13% to 8%. At the same time, the starting floor price decreased from 25169 yuan / m2 to 23129 yuan / m2, a decrease of 2040 yuan / m2, a decrease of about 8%.
With the increase of land supply in the suburbs of the city and the change of land auction rules, the land acquisition cost of real estate enterprises has really decreased. In addition, the upper limit of the average sales price of commercial housing built in many plots in the future has been increased compared with the current projects on sale in the plate, and the adjustment range of the price limit is wide, involving many plates in Hangzhou, with the increase range of unit price ranging from 500-2000 yuan / M2, especially genbei Niutian in Shangcheng District, Gongshu canal new town, Gongshu Qinglong plate, Shenhua plate In the suburban plates of many cities such as the north of Xiaoshan City, the price limit increases exceeded 2000 yuan / m2. After adjustment, the profit space of real estate enterprises is abundant.
The Qiaoxi gongchenqiao plot, the first to trigger the ceiling price in Hangzhou, is also an urban suburban plot. Before the official shooting of the plot, there were 11 rounds of quotation capping and entering the offline lottery stage, which is enough to see the high heat of the plot. Specifically, the initial floor price of the plot is 31128 yuan / m2, the premium rate is 9.7%, and the transaction floor price is 34153 yuan / m2. The surrounding land has been out of supply for 6 years, and new houses are very scarce. Even if calculated according to the hardcover price limit of 51440 yuan / m2, the land price / house price ratio can reach 66%. The land price / house price ratio of the land sold this time is more than 65%, and the profit space is relatively abundant.
At present, among the cities that have completed the third centralized land supply, the value of land development in the suburbs of provincial capital cities has been reflected, which is also an area that real estate enterprises need to actively pay attention to and invest. Relatively speaking, the land price of such provincial capital cities is controllable, which is also an area that real estate enterprises can focus on in a new round of expansion.
On December 22, Changsha held the third centralized land supply. According to Yan Yuejin’s analysis, the land transaction has two characteristics. First, the land acquisition of local platform companies has attracted attention. Compared with the central enterprises and state-owned enterprises often mentioned before, the land acquisition of platform companies in Changsha also shows the new characteristics of land acquisition members, that is, platform companies can often support the land market, play a positive role, prevent the flow of land market, and inspire other real estate enterprises to actively cooperate with such enterprises; Second, for this land distribution, the supply and transaction of land in some peripheral areas are relatively active.
the third centralized land supply “collective deregulation”
Hangzhou is not a case. At present, several hot cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Suzhou and Nanjing, which have completed the third centralized land supply, have moderately relaxed the land auction rules.
In Shenzhen, where the local auction just ended on November 25, the local auction basically continued the “three restrictions and double bidding lottery”, but the competition for “self-supporting rental housing throughout the year” was cancelled and adjusted to “marketable public housing”. This adjustment is considered by the industry as a signal of appropriate profit space for real estate enterprises.
The third batch of centralized land supply in Nanjing cancelled the “no joint registration and bidding, no cooperative development, and strictly restricted equity transfer”, and the qualification of real estate enterprises was reduced from level 2 or level 1 of the second batch of land auction to level 3 and above; The supply quantity in Suzhou increased by 5 cases, the transfer area increased by 45.2%, and the deposit requirements of real estate enterprises were relaxed.
In addition to “moderately loosening” the restrictions on the local auction rules, Suzhou also lowered the starting price of the plot. On November 25, a homestead in Mudu plate in Suzhou land auction was won by Herun real estate at the base price, and the floor price was only 15500 yuan / m2. Mudu plate has attracted many real estate enterprises such as China Railway, Guorui and Jinmao in the past two years. The floor price of the plot they take is generally ranging from 24000 to 28900 yuan / m2.
In the third round of centralized land supply in Guangzhou, the starting price of six plots that had been sold again after the “flow auction” also decreased slightly, the average starting floor price decreased by 1200-3200 yuan / m2, and the unit price of individual plots decreased by 5240 yuan / m2. In addition, the limited selling price of new houses has been cancelled in some plots.
Among the third centralized land supply in Hangzhou, four plots were taken in turn for the second time. Finally, the land price of Jianqiao unit plot was 2.025 billion yuan, a decrease of 179 million yuan or 8.11% compared with the lower price of 2.204 billion yuan for the second time; The land price in the previous batch of plot 7 of fuchunwan new town was 720 million yuan, a direct decrease of 12.5% to 630 million yuan; Compared with the previous starting price of 832 million yuan, the plot in Linping development zone directly decreased by 139 million yuan, down 16.67%.
The impact of such an obvious land price reduction for the third centralized land supply on consumers’ house price expectations can not be measured at present, but real estate enterprises begin to regain confidence and the market is waiting for recovery.
(21st Century Business Herald)
