Recently, the global new energy sector, including a shares, continued to consolidate, changing the previous state of continuous rise. First, there is a need for correction after the sharp rise of the high boom plate; Second, the recent US President Biden's $1.75 trillion "build back better" (hereinafter referred to as "the bill") was blocked, which undoubtedly further impacted the market sentiment.
The bill includes $550 billion in investment in clean energy and climate change. The tax credit for new energy vehicles is significantly increased, and each electric vehicle can receive a subsidy of up to $12500. Compared with the high penetration of electric vehicles in Europe and the rapid growth of electric vehicle sales in China, the base of electric vehicles in the United States is low, so the market believes that the U.S. market is the key variable in 2022.
"The new energy sector has little problem in the long term, but there is profit taking pressure after the sharp rise in the short term, which may also drive a wave of capital outflow. Therefore, it is difficult for the growth industry to have much performance from the near future to the first quarter of next year. Growth stocks have increased a lot this year, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has fallen 6% since the beginning of the year, which will widen the contrast of valuation." Gao Ting, director of Nomura Oriental International Research Department, told the first financial reporter on the 22nd.
US stimulus blocked
US Democratic Senator Joe Manchin suddenly defected a few days ago. Citing inflation concerns, he said that he was "unable to vote for the continuation of this legislation", which means that the bill had to "fight again in the coming year". The CPI of the United States increased by 6.8% year-on-year in November, the highest level since June 1982. The core CPI also hit 4.9%, exceeding the target of 2%.
Paul Krugman, the Nobel Laureate in economics, immediately published a column in the New York Times criticizing Manchin's defection and calling for the adoption of stimulus policies as soon as possible. Krugman said that the expenditure proposed in the bill will be apportioned over the next many years, so it will not significantly increase the total demand in the short term. The effect of the first year on the increase of the deficit in GDP is only 0.6%, "In any model I know, this is not enough to make a significant change in inflation. In addition, the Federal Reserve has recently made it clear that it will be ready to raise interest rates if inflation cannot subside, so government spending should be less important to inflation."
Since the bill is not a general fiscal stimulus, especially focusing on climate change, aiming at reducing carbon emissions and supporting the development of new energy technologies, it has attracted the attention of the capital market.
Specifically, the $550 billion investment in clean energy and climate change is the largest expenditure item in the bill. The United States Congress believes that the most disastrous consequences of the climate crisis must be dealt with immediately. Delaying the action will only make the lives of millions of families more difficult and endanger more lives and livelihoods with the intensification of extreme weather events. The goal of spending plan legislation is to respond to deteriorating climate related disasters and protect and strengthen the country's resilience.
In addition, under the framework of the act, the tax credit for new energy vehicles has been significantly increased, and the policy resonates with the models. Huachuang securities mentioned that the new act raised the maximum subsidy for electric vehicles from the current US $7500 to US $12500: basic subsidy of US $4000 + US $3500 (the charging capacity of a single vehicle is greater than 40kwh) + US $4000 (producing electric vehicles in the United States and equipped with labor Union) + US $500 (using power batteries made in the United States). The maximum subsidy is the same as that in the previous clean energy proposal; For the first time, the bill includes two / three wheeled vehicles and used vehicles into the scope of subsidies for the first time, provides up to US $7500 tax relief for electric two / three wheeled vehicles with a charging capacity of more than 2.5kwh, and US $4000 tax relief for used vehicles; The tax credit is adjusted from the current federal individual tax deduction to full refund. Subsidies tend to be made in the United States as a whole. In the tax credit, the subsidy amount based on American trade unions and local manufacturing reaches US $5000 / vehicle, and after 2027, the subsidy can only be enjoyed by electric vehicles produced in the United States, and local automobile enterprises and industrial chains in the United States will continue to benefit.
Most of the investments related to clean energy depend on the policy direction. Therefore, the institutions generally believe that if the subsequent bill is passed, the United States is expected to replicate the great development history of new energy vehicles in Europe from 2020 to 2021 in the next two years, and the sales volume will increase rapidly. At present, the basic materials of electrification in the United States are weak, and China's lithium battery materials benefit more. Domestic lithium battery leaders are expected to enjoy the import opportunities brought by the local lithium battery supply gap in the United States.
the expected difference of new energy industry becomes smaller
Even without this bill, the new energy industry in the United States will continue to develop, and the green revolution in China and Europe is accelerating. However, the problem is that the expectations of the capital market have been too full, and the valuations of most relevant companies are high. Therefore, more expectation differences are needed to eliminate high valuations. However, the poor expectations in 2022 are challenging.
Xu Tao, China equity fund manager of kesbo, told reporters earlier that all circles are full of expectations for vehicle sales next year. This year, the annual sales volume of electric vehicles is about 6 million, accounting for nearly half of that in China. Next year's global sales are expected to reach 9 million ~ 10 million vehicles. From the perspective of expectation, the biggest variable next year is the United States. In 2021, the number of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars in the United States is expected to be only about 600000, with a low base. If the bill cannot be passed, the expected difference is insufficient, which may put pressure on the relevant sectors with high valuation.
The future process of this bill is also closely related to Chinese enterprises. According to the statistics of the first financial reporter, the proportion of overseas revenue of China's leading enterprises in the fields of lithium batteries, lithium battery main materials and photovoltaic has been rising in recent years, and the overseas profit margin is much higher than the Chinese market with a high degree of "internal volume". Therefore, the significant expansion of valuation of relevant enterprises this year largely comes from the overseas business growth.
For example, the proportion of overseas business income of diaphragm leader Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) has exceeded 50% as early as the first half of 2020; The overseas business revenue of China's lithium battery leader Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) accounted for 23.15% in the first half of 2021, further increasing compared with the growth rate of 285.30% in 2020; The overseas revenue of photovoltaic inverter and energy storage leader Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) has also accounted for more than half. In the first half of this year, the overseas business revenue reached 4.162 billion yuan, accounting for 50.70% of the operating revenue.
Since this year, the share prices of relevant lithium battery main materials companies (four main materials: diaphragm, positive electrode, negative electrode and electrolyte) have also risen. The sharp rise in demand and the tightening of production capacity caused by dual control of energy consumption continue to support the sharp rise in share prices. However, all circles expect that the supply and demand pattern will improve next year, and some link expansion may make it difficult for high share prices to sustain.
Many investment managers of Chinese foreign investment management institutions told reporters that the most pressing link is still the diaphragm. Limited by the equipment capacity (diaphragm equipment mainly comes from Japan, Germany and France), a large number of capacity of Japanese enterprises are booked in advance by Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , and other enterprises do not expand their production so quickly. However, the supply and demand of positive and negative electrodes will slowly return to an equilibrium level, and there may be excess electrolyte. The biggest change is the negative pole. As the graphitization of negative electrode material is a high energy consuming industry, under the background of dual control of energy consumption, the approval of local government is slow and the expansion of production is limited, resulting in the tight supply of negative electrode for a time. However, the recent central economic work conference pointed out that it is necessary to conduct scientific assessment, and the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control, so as to prevent simple layer by layer decomposition. From the perspective of new energy vehicles, the order previously strictly controlled by energy consumption indicators is negative electrode (graphitization) > positive electrode (ternary & iron lithium) > copper foil.
"Boom industries should also see risks. The world is facing the risk of declining industry growth in the second half of next year, such as the risk of declining subsidies in the United States and Europe," Huan Yi Investment's actual controller and CIO takasugi told reporters.
Since January this year, China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile has stepped out of the "on-off" mode. Every three months, the production and sales have climbed to a new platform: from March to may, the monthly sales have been stable at about 210000; From June to August, the monthly sales climbed to 300000 vehicles; From September to October, the target of selling 400000 vehicles per month was reached; In November, sales jumped to 450000. In the past 11 months, the monthly output of new energy vehicles increased by 127.8% year-on-year, the lowest in November, and the highest in February, with a year-on-year increase of 723.36%. Reflected in the market penetration rate, it is constantly climbing by about 1.3 percentage points every month. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the market penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars in mid November has reached 19.7%.
(First Finance)
