Key investment points:
Important announcements of listed companies
Jiajia Food Group Co.Ltd(002650) : Announcement on share repurchase plan of the company
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) : Announcement on the resignation of chairman Li Qiuxi at the age of retirement Anji Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603696) : Announcement on the share reduction plan of shareholders and directors, supervisors and senior executives through centralized bidding
Industry key data tracking
In terms of dairy products, the price of fresh milk fluctuated at a high level. As of December 15, 2021, the average price of fresh milk in the main producing areas was 4.32 yuan / kg, unchanged month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 4.60%, and the year-on-year growth rate continued to slow down.
In terms of meat products, the prices of piglets, live pigs and pork began to bottom up in May 2019 and continued the rising trend. The prices began to decline significantly around November last year, and the downward trend of pork prices was established in the medium term. At present, pork prices are near the low point and have rebounded slightly recently. As of December 10 this year, the prices of piglets, pigs and pork in 22 provinces in China had reached 30.41 yuan / kg, 17.42 yuan / kg and 26.07 yuan / kg respectively, with year-on-year changes of – 69.98%, – 52.00% and – 49.52% respectively.
Market performance review this week
In the past five trading days, the food and beverage sector fell 3.41%, the CSI 300 index fell 1.83%, and the industry lost 1.58 percentage points to the market, ranking downstream of 30 first-class industries of CITIC. Among them, alcohol decreased by 4.35%, beverages decreased by 0.08% and food decreased by 0.62%.
In terms of individual stocks, Guangdong Jialong Food Co.Ltd(002495) , Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) and Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) led the gains, while Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Gansu Huangtai Wine-Marketing Industry Co.Ltd(000995) and Hai Nan Yedao (Group) Co.Ltd(600238) led the declines.
Investment advice
This week, the food and beverage sector was down, and sentiment in the plate was temporarily uncertain by the Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) ‘s changing of the price and the anticipated price rise of high-end baijiu. At present, we believe that we should get rid of the disturbance of short-term information, look at long and long, and grasp the current layout time point. From monthly data, we think that Baijiu is still in operation cycle and the price cycle of high-end Baijiu will be extended due to price control. And the fine products of public products have already opened the price raising cycle. We need to pay close attention to the market acceptance after the price increase. On the plate side, it is still recommended to focus on the more high-end Baijiu, and change the space with time, and pay attention to the secondary high-end market. In terms of mass products, the upstream cost pressure may be relieved in the middle of next year. At present, the beer sector still has a relatively better competition pattern and smoother pressure transmission, followed by dairy products. The rise of raw milk in the upstream of dairy products has tended to ease. On the basis of good demand and early price increase, the performance is expected to accelerate the release. It is recommended to pay active attention. To sum up, we give the industry a “optimistic” investment rating and continue to recommend Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (000858), Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (603369), Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) (600298), Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) (600132) and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) (600887).
Risk statement
Macroeconomic downside risk; Risk of major food safety events.
(Bohai Securities)
