Report summary:
The real estate M & a loan policy catalyzes the superior performance of real estate, and the infrastructure remains strong driven by the policy.
On December 21, 2021, the primary industries with the highest growth were mainly real estate (5.0%), textile and garment (2.7%), building materials (2.6%), consumer services (2.2%), household appliances (2.1%), and the secondary industries with the best performance were real estate services (7.2%), hotels and catering (5.2%), real estate development and operation (4.9%), automobile sales and service II (4.3%) and value-added service II (4.1%), Specifically: 1) recently, the marginal relaxation of real estate policy has catalyzed the sharp rise of real estate. On December 20, the people’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on doing a good job in M & a financial services for risk disposal projects of key real estate enterprises, indicating that it will steadily and orderly carry out M & a loan business of real estate projects, focus on supporting high-quality real estate enterprises to merge and acquire high-quality projects of risky and difficult large real estate enterprises, and speed up the clearing of real estate risks, Catalyzed by this, the real estate has a strong performance. 2) “Lead”
The margin of infrastructure superimposed real estate is wide, and Panasonic building materials continues to be strong. The economic work conference proposed “advance”
Infrastructure investment, superimposed on the recent marginal loosening of financing policies for real estate enterprises, the profitability of the building materials sector is expected to improve and maintain a dominant trend as a whole.
Under the poor performance of real estate leaders, the sustainability of the market is in doubt, and the small ticket market mostly ends in the expected improvement of policy supervision or blue chip fundamentals. Recently, the market has two main structural characteristics: 1) in the real estate structure, the small ticket is strong and the ticket is weak, and the real estate market continues to be in doubt. From the perspective of the internal rising structure of the real estate sector, the median value of individual stock markets with an increase ranking of more than 80% is only 4.75 billion, while the median value of individual stock markets with an increase ranking of 20% – 40% is 10.44 billion, showing the obvious characteristics of small market value companies with a much larger increase than market value companies, poor performance of real estate leaders, repair of the overall real estate market or partial short-term valuation, and the sustainability is in doubt. 2) The small ticket is still active in the near future, and the end requires regulatory force or blue chip fundamentals to confirm the improvement. As of the closing on December 21, 2021, the trading limit of Wande a has exceeded 2% for 6 consecutive days. Recently, under the background of the decline of the index, it still maintains the trading limit of 100 stocks, and the small ticket structure market is significant. The sign of the end of the periodic dominance of small ticket in 2018 is generally policy supervision. For example, the fundamental expectation of blue chip was comprehensively reduced on January 5, 2019, which ended the market of 5g small ticket from October 2018, and the economic data rebounded on June 15, 2020, which opened the subsequent big rise of blue chip and ended the situation of small ticket, On September 10, 2020, the continuous regulation and control ended the crazy cow market of small ticket since the gem registration system. In mid September 2021, the consumption expectation of food companies improved under the continuous price increase, and the stock price rebound temporarily ended the market of small ticket since the beginning of the year.
Risk warning: secondary outbreak of the epidemic; The introduction of policies was less than expected
（ Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) ）
