Overseas holiday is coming, A-Shares may set a record — Notes on daoda investment

At lunch today, I saw a news that “watermelon frost king” Zou Jieming died of illness.

This winter is a little hard. Unexpectedly, Zou Jieming, the “watermelon frost king”, died of illness after Xie Zhikun, the actual controller of “Zhongzhi Department”, Li Xiaoan, the chairman of China business fund, and Wu Yuanzhi, the helmsman of “Dayi tea”. Zou Jieming is the fourth business elite to die since last weekend.

From the workers of small factories in traditional Chinese medicine workshops to the chairman of 10 billion listed companies, “watermelon cream” has become a well-known brand. Zou Jieming’s story is inspiring enough. After looking at the enterprise information of Guilin Sanjin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002275) , the company currently has 207 patent information, of which Zou Jieming is the inventor of many patents.

I feel even more sorry for Zou Jieming when I think of the recent news of eating melons with hundreds of millions of dollars. DAGO always has great respect for people who do business, especially in times of economic recession, those who do business steadfastly should be respected. The future of the country should not be stars and Internet Celebrities, but scientists, engineers and industrialists.

Fortunately, the law of the people’s Republic of China on scientific and technological progress (Revised Draft) has been submitted for deliberation. The State encourages scientific and technological research and development institutions, universities and enterprises to encourage scientific and technological personnel by means of equity, options and dividends. The core of enterprise innovation is talents. It is very important to improve the income of scientific and technical personnel and encourage innovation. With the increase of various policies, enterprises such as “specialized and new” are still worthy of attention.

According to one data, since December, 25 listed companies have received group research from more than 30 public funds, most of which are small and medium-sized targets with a circulating market value of less than 30 billion yuan.

In the view of many people in the industry, the golden age of “lying and winning” to buy leading stocks is basically over, because the valuation is not low. The data of large market capitalization stocks such as cash flow, profitability and capital carrying capacity are very clear in the eyes of institutions. Most of the sources of excess returns in the future are likely to come from small and medium-sized stocks.

In recent days, there is an important meeting in the lithium battery industry – Senior lithium battery annual meeting. There are many speakers. DAGO has seen a lot and feels that it is necessary to share with you the key points drawn by “ningwang”.

First of all, talk about Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) itself – in terms of material innovation, the focus of R & D is sodium ion battery, lithium metal battery, cobalt free and precious metal free battery; In terms of system structure, the third generation CTP battery focuses on improving energy density and optimizing thermal management system; In terms of structural innovation, complementary advantages are realized through the AB lines of iron lithium + Ternary and lithium + sodium.

Secondly, we talk about cooperation – it is specifically mentioned here that the upgrading of the whole industrial chain driven by the supply side requires chemical giants to enter the industry, especially several phosphorus chemical giants. Although it is explained from the perspective of industry, it is also regarded as endorsement for several major phosphorus chemical giants in disguised form. The space is still very objective for cyclical stocks to be revalued according to the value of new energy stocks.

Yesterday, it was said that the lithium battery sector needs to be adjusted, but this does not prevent us from paying attention to its industrial chain. After the adjustment of lithium battery next year, there are still phased opportunities. For example, semiconductor has been fried in the middle of this year and again in October. Stepping on the right rhythm, the income is still considerable.

Next, let’s talk about the market. The performance of Shanghai Stock Index today is flat, which is a shock pattern. The fluctuations in the venue are sometimes like warm winter weather. A cold wave lasts two days, and the temperature rises again. There is no need to worry about the fluctuations in a few days. The highlights of the plate are mainly meta universe and consumption.

Stimulated by the news, the meta universe continues to soar today. It performs well in technology and hardware. This should be a relatively stable subdivision of the theme of the meta universe. Recently, I saw a mobile phone manufacturer release a smart glasses, which can navigate, translate and do a teleprompter. The effect is a little sci-fi.

In the PC era, everyone needs a computer; In the era of mobile terminal, everyone needs a mobile phone. Of course, DAGO doesn’t know what kind of equipment it will be in the future.

Chinese medicine stocks in large consumption continued to strengthen, which was the second change recently, reaching a recent high. After combing the indexes of various sub sectors of large consumption, at present, the structure of individual stocks in sectors such as traditional Chinese medicine, planting and forestry and household light industry is still good and worthy of attention.

In terms of individual stocks, although some “little demons” began to “send noodles”, which is a bad signal, the overall killing and falling strength is still in order, which did not cause panic flight. There are not many stocks falling the limit, but there are still a lot of stocks rising the limit, and hot money has the taste of position adjustment and stock exchange. At present, high-level stocks are not short-term experts, so it’s better to touch less.

The disclosure of performance pre increase is also fast. During this period, the heavy position stocks of some institutions also fell miserably and need to rebound. If you don’t want to participate in the short-term or low price game, you can wait for the later performance to be determined, and the Chinese army will gradually strengthen in industries with large volume. With the gradual decline of high-level themes, the oversold track will gradually strengthen.

From the perspective of the global market, on December 24, many financial markets around the world were closed or closed in advance because of festivals. From the historical records, in the last few trading days before the end of the year, US stocks always performed strongly with high probability. From the historical records from 1950 to 2019, US stocks performed strongly with high probability in the seven trading days at the beginning of the festival, that is, the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days at the beginning of the next year.

If the overseas market performs well, the negative impact on the Chinese market will be small, and A-Shares can go out of their own rhythm. There are seven trading days before the end of 2021. DAGO has turned over the performance of the Shanghai stock index in the last week or two in December in the last 10 years, and the probability of closing positive is 70%.

In other words, if the Shanghai stock index can stabilize in the next seven trading days, there is still a great opportunity to realize the three consecutive positive of the annual K-line. We should know that in the history of Shanghai stock index, there is no situation that the K line has received three consecutive Yang in. At present, the index is not far from creating history. Everything is possible!

(Daily Economic News)

 

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