Main points
Resumption 2021: the prosperity of medicine continues and the allocation value gradually appears. Looking back on the first three quarters of 2021, the shenwanyi pharmaceutical biological index fell by 5.63%, which experienced a gradual and stable process.
CXO, chemical raw materials and other high-profile tracks are relatively strong, and “epidemic benefiting stocks” and “centralized mining damaged stocks” are under pressure throughout the year.
Investment strategy of the pharmaceutical industry in 2022: in the era of changing situation, it will win a lot of stars in the grand pattern.
Change 1: the trend of payment policy is becoming more and more obvious, and bottom innovation + global sales has become the only way. The implementation of centralized purchase + DRG has been strengthened. Centralized purchase continues to suppress the prices of drugs, equipment and consumables, while DRG returns the pressure of fee control to the terminal hospital. The reform of the payment side shows the determination of the medical insurance bureau to control fees and benefits. In the future, we must seek bottom innovation and global sales, and the living space of single product companies relying on sales is becoming narrower and narrower.
Change 2: with the deepening of aging, digital medicine is expected to open a new era. According to the results of the 2021 census, the degree of aging continues to deepen, with more than 260 million people over the age of 60. In the context of population aging, digital medical care can better solve the problem of chronic disease management, is expected to alleviate the uneven distribution of medical resources and improve efficiency, improve supervision and optimize the current situation of medical insurance revenue and expenditure.
Change 3: the return of the value of “epidemic beneficiary stocks”. In 2021, the market performance of “epidemic beneficiary stocks” was poor, and the valuation level was mostly the lowest level in history. However, we believe that these companies have entered a new stage of development through channel expansion, R & D strengthening and pattern optimization during the epidemic. On the other hand, under the background of repeated and changeable epidemic situation, epidemic prevention related consumables will produce many rigid demands, rather than the one-time benefits expected by the market.
Investment advice
In 2021, the pharmaceutical sector is still in a changing era, and the determination of medical insurance fee control will be clearer under the background of centralized procurement + DRG acceleration; The change of population structure has brought about the demand release of “silver economy”; The covid-19 epidemic situation is complex, and the so-called “epidemic beneficiary stocks” have opened a new era of development based on good cash flow. We believe that the main investment line of the pharmaceutical health sector in 2022 can focus on bottom innovation, global sales, digital medicine and the return of the value of “epidemic beneficiary stocks”. We need to focus on enterprises with high policy immunity, compound national population and inclusive medical policies, and independent innovation ability.
Focus on: Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Yidu technology, Iray Technology Company Limited(688301) , Shanghai Kindly Enterprises Development Group Co.Ltd(603987) , Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) , Cofoe Medical Technology Co.Ltd(301087) , Baiji Shenzhou, Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress Co.Ltd(688131) , Jiangsu Sinopep-Allsino Biopharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688076) , Maider Medical Industry Equipment Co.Ltd(688310) , Autek China Inc(300595) , Nanhua Bio-Medicineco.Ltd(000504) , anxiu biology, etc.
Risk tips:
Policy changes such as centralized procurement, price fluctuations of medical raw materials, fluctuations in China US relations, etc.
(Shanghai Securities)
