Current investment tips:
"Stability first", "cross cycle and counter cycle", "ensuring fiscal expenditure intensity and accelerating expenditure progress" and "moderately ahead of infrastructure investment" are high-frequency words for policy statements after the 730 Politburo meeting. Looking forward to 2022, we believe that the certainty of marginal improvement of investment demand will be further consolidated, and we should maintain expectations for reasonably expanding the demand elasticity within the scope of effective investment:
Power engineering is an important starting point for steady growth: under the "double carbon" goal, the power industry is deeply decarbonized, and the deep electrification of other industries is the most feasible path for China's carbon emission reduction. It is estimated that the total power demand will be 12.1 trillion degrees in 2030, with a 10-year compound growth rate of 4.7%. Under the condition of ensuring the balance between supply and demand of the power system, we expect to add 2.06 billion kw of installed capacity on the power side in the next 10 years, corresponding to a total investment of 9.15 trillion yuan, including 1.76 billion kw of installed capacity of wind and light power generation, corresponding to a total investment of 7.79 trillion yuan. At the same time, the proportion of new energy has increased, and a series of construction demands such as catalytic power grid (UHV), distribution network, energy storage (pumped energy storage, electrochemical energy storage) and upstream raw material capital expenditure have increased. Power projects enjoy a long-term prosperity. In 2022, they will resonate in the background of counter cyclical regulation.
The new type of "urbanization" is still on the way: the concentration of industry and population in advantageous regions is the objective requirement for the improvement of factor efficiency, and affordable rental housing is an important direction for the improvement of efficiency. In June 21, the State Council issued the opinions on accelerating the development of affordable rental housing to support the development of relevant fields. By the end of November 21, 13 of China's 21 super large cities had issued the "14th five year plan" for affordable rental housing. Among the core cities, the proportion of new affordable rental housing in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hangzhou was no less than 30%.
Undervalued starting point + driving force optimistic expectation fermentation helped construction stocks obtain excess returns. The necessary condition for the construction sector to obtain excess returns is that optimistic expectations for the core driving force are being formed on the margin, and the stock price has not been fully reflected (such as valuation, position, etc.). At present, the overall PE and Pb valuations of the construction industry are at the bottom of history. Under the condition of loose liquidity margin, the market's expectation of counter cyclical adjustment is constantly strengthened, and the valuation of the construction industry is expected to usher in repair.
Investment analysis opinion: looking forward to 2022, we believe that the certainty of marginal improvement of investment demand will be further consolidated. We should maintain expectations for reasonably expanding the demand elasticity within the scope of effective investment, focusing on three directions: Power Engineering, expected improved value blue chip and efficiency improvement:
1) Recommend Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) as the main force of new energy construction, and Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) as the outstanding private enterprise of distribution network construction emerging under the background of power system reform, obtain Guangdong No.2 Hydropower Engineering Company Ltd(002060) of pumped storage and develop new energy power generation business, and pay attention to Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) , Fujian Yongfu Power Engineering Co.Ltd(300712) , Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) ;
2) Recommend the value blue chips at the bottom of historical valuation and expected improvement, infrastructure central enterprises China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) , China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) , China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) international, local state-owned enterprises Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) , Shanghai Construction Group Co.Ltd(600170) , Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co.Ltd(600820) , professional engineering Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , East China Engineering Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002140) ;? 3) Focus on the direction of efficiency improvement: Hongxin construction, Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) , Shenzhen Ridge Engineering Consulting Co.Ltd(300977) .
Risk warning: the economic recovery is not as expected; Infrastructure investment is less than expected; The orders of listed companies were less than expected
(Shanghai Shenyin Wanguo Securities Research Institute)
