Global resonance in the context of dual carbon, new energy vehicles welcome historic opportunities 1) long term (over 10 years): energy revolution drives industrial changes, and investment opportunities will emerge one after another. The double carbon policy will drive the energy revolution and all-round reform of the power system for a long time. New industries such as energy storage, green power and fuel cell represented by new energy vehicles will usher in unprecedented industrial changes and investment opportunities. 2) Medium and long term (5 ~ 10 years): a new round of investment opportunities for intelligent electric drive. At present, the new energy vehicle industry is currently in a new era of intelligent electric in the era of electrification 3.0 and intelligent 1.0. Its industrial chain is gradually realizing a new stage from traditional manufacturing attributes to consumption and scientific and technological attributes, and is expected to continue to obtain high valuation premium.
3) Short term (1 ~ 2 years): Global resonance, booming supply and demand, leading premium. China, Europe and the United States have strongly overweight the new energy vehicle industry, while Tesla, Liwei Pengwei and other new forces have accelerated the intelligent process, and the demand for popular models has increased. Due to the strong downstream demand such as superimposed energy storage of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries and the industrial chain will still be the core investment areas with the highest certainty and the largest value in the industry, and the global supply chain segmentation leader will usher in the medium and long term α Investment opportunities.
Global new energy vehicles have six times the space in five years, corresponding to about 48% of CAGR. The sales volume of new energy vehicles is the focus of industry research and tracking. Under the background of constantly enriching models, the sales volume is growing rapidly. We predict that the sales volume of China, the United States and Europe will be about 11.17 million, 6.32 million and 4.27 million respectively in 2025. Based on China's possession of the world's best consumer group, the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in the next five years will be 52%, while that of the United States will be as high as 67% due to its small base and low penetration rate in the same period; 35% in Europe over the same period.
The space of global power lithium battery is about 8 times in 5 years, corresponding to about 56% CAGR. The CAGR of lithium batteries in new energy vehicles, energy storage and consumption will be 56%, 51% and 10% respectively in the five years to 2025, corresponding to 1329, 222 and 174gwh respectively in 2025. That is, in 2025, the global total demand for lithium batteries will reach 1725gwh, corresponding to about 44% CAGR in the five-year period, reflecting strong and rapid growth. The main increment comes from the field of new energy vehicles and energy storage. At the same time, we believe that energy storage will be the super outlet for the investment feast of relay power battery.
The demand for key materials of lithium batteries is growing rapidly, and the CAGR in five years is about 38 ~ 41%. As the core and key component of new energy vehicles, lithium power battery reflects the demand for sustained and rapid growth. The postponement of the corresponding upstream key raw materials has important investment opportunities. Based on the calculation of the above installed caliber of lithium battery, it is estimated that 1) cathode: the demand will reach 2.62 million tons by 2025 and the CAGR will reach 39% in 5 years; 2) Negative electrode material: the demand will reach 1.65 million tons by 2025, and the CAGR will reach 41% in 5 years; 3) Electrolyte: the demand will reach 1.82 million tons by 2025, and the CAGR will reach 41% in 5 years; The corresponding lithium hexafluorophosphate is 199000 tons, and the CAGR is 38%; 4) Diaphragm: by 2025, the demand will reach 27.5 billion square meters, and the CAGR in five years will reach 41%.
In 2022, the industry boom went up and remained relatively overvalued
After experiencing the epidemic impact and industrial inflection point in 2020, new energy vehicles have ushered in a period of high prosperity for more than five years, and will still be in a period of rapid growth in the next two years. The main reason is that after experiencing the industrial pain period, they have ushered in the multiple resonance catalysis of volume, profit and price in the industrial chain. Looking ahead, the new energy vehicle industry will continue to boom upward, but the growth rate will slow down moderately after 2023. It is worth noting that the rapid growth in energy storage and other fields will bring an effective premium to the slowing lithium battery industry chain, and the valuation can continue to remain high.
Lithium battery industry chain differentiation, select the best from the best
Driven by high demand and relatively limited capacity supply, the lithium battery industry chain is in short supply. From 2020 to 2021, the product prices of almost all links are in the upward stage, with upstream resources (lithium and cobalt) → main materials of midstream batteries (positive electrode, negative electrode, electrolyte and diaphragm) The prices of auxiliary materials (solvents, additives, PVDF, lithium hexafluorophosphate, copper foil, aluminum foil, etc.) → power batteries and other products are in the upward channel. Looking forward to 2022, based on the different industrial cycles of each link, the product price and profitability will be differentiated. Considering the comprehensive capital expenditure and capacity release cycle, battery, diaphragm, graphitization, copper foil and other auxiliary materials are the key layout direction in the future α+β Properties. The long-term growth attribute of the significant competitive advantage of leading enterprises is mainly considered in the subdivided fields with high price increase in the early stage (such as 6F electrolyte) α Properties.
Pay attention to the golden track in the next stage: energy storage in the early stage of industrial growth and fuel cells in the introduction period
Energy storage: supporting the development of new energy, relay the lithium power battery into a super tuyere. Energy storage is mainly divided into power generation side, power grid side and user side according to application scenarios. Benefiting from the promotion of carbon neutralization goal, supporting wind power generation, supporting power grid services and user power demand, the energy storage market is expected to develop rapidly. We predict that the space of global energy storage lithium battery will be about 6.6 times in five years, corresponding to about 51% CAGR, and the demand will be as high as 222gwh by 2025. As the core component in the field of electric vehicles, power batteries have developed to an unprecedented height. Energy storage will be a historic opportunity for lithium battery enterprises and the horizontal extension of their industrial chain. With their obvious competition and industrial advantages accumulated in the field of electric vehicles, Chinese enterprises will be the super outlet for the investment feast of power batteries.
Hydrogen fuel cell: accumulation, future growth can be expected. As Beijing Dynamic Power Co.Ltd(600405) in the field of new energy vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell is an important supplement to lithium battery in the future. In the short term, hydrogen fuel cells are in the industrial introduction period, and more are β Investment attributes. At present, fuel cells are suitable for long-distance heavy-duty and commercial vehicles. With cost reduction and technology improvement, they are expected to continue to promote their application in the field of passenger vehicles in the future. We believe that their long-term application prospects are very broad and are an emerging field worthy of high attention in the medium and long term.
Industry rating and investment strategy
Under the general trend that the global supply resonance drives the continuous growth of demand, the new energy vehicle industry has entered a new journey of letting a hundred flowers bloom, the fundamentals are expected to continue to improve in the long term, and the outlook of the industrial chain will continue to rise. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the medium and long-term major investment opportunities in the extended energy storage and fuel cells of new energy vehicles. Based on multiple positive catalysts such as industrial fundamentals, policy driven and valuation premium, the new energy vehicle industry was rated as "overweight".
Main lines of proposed layout: 1) subdivided leaders with significant industrial advantages: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) . 2) The diaphragm, copper foil, graphitized Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) and Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) related to upstream lithium and cobalt resources benefit from the simultaneous rise in volume and price. 3) Key recommendations in energy storage field: Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) ; It is suggested to pay attention to: Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) ; 4) It is suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) - u, Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , Anhui Quanchai Engine Co.Ltd(600218) , Houpu Clean Energy Co.Ltd(300471) , Shenzhen Center Power Tech.Co.Ltd(002733) etc. in the field of fuel cells; 5) Other suggestions focus on Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) .
Risk statement
Policy fluctuation risk; Demand is lower than expected; The product price is lower than expected; The performance of the recommended company is less than expected; Systemic risk.
(Huaxin securities)
