When the electricity price is 7 cents / kWh, methanol production from carbon dioxide + Green hydrogen will be economical. At present, photovoltaic hydrogen production is gradually approaching this level
When the coal price is 800 yuan / ton, the cost of coal to methanol is about 1953 yuan / ton. Under this methanol cost, if carbon dioxide + Green hydrogen is used to produce methanol, the corresponding hydrogen cost needs to be reduced to 7.01 yuan / kg (0.63 yuan / Nm3), and the electricity price of electrolytic water needs to be reduced to 0.07 yuan / kWh.
According to the economic feasibility analysis of the new photovoltaic hydrogen production project planned by Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , the cost of hydrogen per cubic meter can be controlled at 0.7 yuan / Nm3, which is close to 0.63 yuan / Nm3, which means that carbon dioxide + Green hydrogen to methanol is gradually economical.
Carbon tax will further improve the economy of carbon dioxide + Green hydrogen to methanol
The combination of carbon dioxide and green hydrogen to produce methanol can reduce carbon emissions by 3.44 tons compared with coal to methanol at the process end. According to the closing price of the national carbon market carbon emission quota (CEA) of 42.69 yuan / ton on December 10, 2021, the CO2 value of combined carbon dioxide and green hydrogen to methanol at the process end is 147 yuan compared with that of coal to methanol. According to the prediction of the International Monetary Fund, in order to achieve the temperature control target of February 2030, the price of carbon dioxide per ton should be about US $75. According to this standard, the value of carbon dioxide emission reduction can be as high as 1677 yuan.
Industrialization is gradually approaching, focusing on Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989)
Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) : the joint subsidiary Hualu Engineering Technology Co., Ltd. has completed the engineering design of liquid sunshine carbon dioxide hydrogenation to methanol project in Lanzhou New Area. "Liquid solar fuel synthesis demonstration project" is a pilot project of Academician Li can of Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences in the western region according to the current situation of China's energy and ecological environment. It is the world's first large-scale (kiloton) green methanol synthesis demonstration device. The project consists of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic power generation, hydrogen production from electrolytic water and methanol synthesis from carbon dioxide hydrogenation. The supporting construction of a 10 MW photovoltaic power station provides electric energy for hydrogen production equipment from electrolytic water. The project covers a total area of about 289 mu with a total investment of about 140 million yuan, including 259 mu of photovoltaic land with an investment of 50 million yuan. On October 15, 2020, the kiloton "liquid solar fuel synthesis demonstration project" passed the appraisal of scientific and technological achievements organized by Petrochina Company Limited(601857) and the Chemical Industry Federation in Lanzhou New Area.
Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) : in September 2021, Sibang petrochemical, which the company plans to acquire, signed a "150000 ton carbon dioxide capture and comprehensive utilization project" with Icelandic carbon recycling company. The project can recover carbon dioxide from industrial tail gas and produce photovoltaic grade EVA resin. The project is designed to recover 150000 tons of carbon oxide per year and produce 20000 tons of photovoltaic EVA resin.
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) : the company started the construction of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) electrolytic hydrogen production energy storage and application demonstration project in 2019. The project is listed as a national demonstration project by the national energy administration. Part of the production capacity has been put into operation in April 2021. It is expected that all 30 electrolytic cells will be completed by the end of this year. At that time, 240 million standard cubic meters (i.e. 214 thousand tons) of green hydrogen will be produced annually The production scale of 120 million standard cubic meters of green oxygen (i.e. 171400 tons).
Risk tip: risk of policy change; Risk of technical route change; Risk of technical failure; Risk of slow progress of new projects; Risk of shutdown of the plant due to force majeure; The risk of falling product demand caused by macroeconomic fluctuations; The risk of intensified market competition; Risk of untimely transformation of R & D achievements.
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