Since December, the trend of the three major A-share indexes has been divided, the industry plates have fluctuated, and the yuan universe, traditional Chinese medicine, games and gas plates have rotated rapidly. At present, the end of the year is approaching. According to the investment strategy of 2022, some institutions believe that 2022 will focus on the long-term growth track and grasp the cycle growth; Some institutions also believe that the main line of configuration in 2022 is high prosperity + sectors that continue to benefit from policies, such as "double carbon", science and technology, etc.
The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Securities:
focus on long-term growth track in 2022
Focusing on the long-term growth track, investors should grasp the cycle of growth. Global cars have entered the wave of electrification. Driven by high demand, power battery enterprises at home and abroad are vigorously expanding production, and a new round of capacity expansion arms race has started. At present, 21 enterprises, including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , LG new energy, AVIC lithium battery, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , ski, Byd Company Limited(002594) , have planned production capacity of more than 3155 GWH. The demand for lithium battery equipment has entered a steep period. According to the calculation, if the five-year replacement cycle of lithium battery equipment, the proportion of effective capacity, energy storage market, electric tools and other market factors are not considered, the global average annual new demand for equipment will be 96.7 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025. If the above factors are considered, the global average annual new demand for equipment will be 171.5 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025.
Looking forward to next year, China's policy supports the acceleration of real estate and special bond issuance, and is optimistic about the commencement of construction machinery in the peak season next year. In terms of export, overseas epidemic situations are repeated, the production of overseas competitors is limited, and the stable operation of Chinese enterprises provides conditions for domestic brands to go overseas. Each main engine factory quickly cuts into the overseas market by virtue of its advantages, From January to November 2021, the cumulative export sales of excavators reached 59800 units, reaching 95.91% year-on-year. It is expected that the export growth will continue next year. Focus on Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) , Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , Yantai Eddie Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(603638) , Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) , Zhejiang Dingli Machinery Co.Ltd(603338) .
With the development of emerging industries such as 5g, Internet of things, artificial intelligence and automotive electronics, the semiconductor industry has entered a new rising cycle. In addition, the global core shortage problem continues, and the continuous expansion of wafer factories will significantly drive the demand for semiconductor equipment.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) ：
focus on the main line of "double carbon" investment
Double carbon is the most definite medium-term dimension of wide credit direction. The impact of real estate downturn on the overall economy will be the most important challenge for the economy next year. The Politburo meeting and the central economic work conference in December defined the tone of stability. In terms of monetary policy, we should not only see that the overall monetary policy will remain loose next year, and the total reserve requirement reduction or even interest rate reduction can be expected, but also see the special structure of monetary policy. "Green low-carbon" is getting support like refinancing of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises after the epidemic, and has become the most important direction of the central bank's structural wide credit. Since the water flows here, the valuation and prosperity of this field are expected to remain high. In terms of fiscal policy, the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) industry currently has global competitiveness, mature industrial chain, wide radiation range, and is in line with the direction of new infrastructure to stimulate the economy. Therefore, it is expected to be the most important direction of fiscal development.
In terms of A-share market investment, the game of phased market under the replacement of old and new energy is more complex. From the long-term perspective of the reform of energy revolution, in the industrial reform driven by the goal of "carbon neutralization", the prosperity of the new energy industry chain may continue to remain high.
Under the expectation of fiscal policy, the stimulus space for infrastructure investment is opened. It is a concrete measure to carry out infrastructure investment moderately and in advance. Among them, the energy storage field plays an irreplaceable role in cutting peak and filling valley in the process of grid connection of new energy power generation and reducing grid fluctuation; The green power sector undertakes the operation and transformation of new energy power grid for clean energy power conversion; New materials under the construction demand of new energy related infrastructure may be the real policy starting point and market main line.
Galaxy Securities:
The configuration of 2022 involves four main lines
At present, the market structure characteristics of slow bull are gradually taking shape - improved investor structure, closer industry structure to U.S. stocks, abundant liquidity support, overseas capital inflow, inhibition of the real estate industry and accelerated allocation of resident funds to a shares, all of which bring liquidity to A-Shares and help prolong the bull market. From the perspective of rising space, the market probability remains volatile, showing an "n" trend, making it more difficult to make money, and the market style will be more balanced in 2022. In the first quarter, the policy was optimistic, the logic of some industries was difficult to verify in the short term, and the strength of RMB was conducive to the rebound of core assets. 2、 There may be some risks in the market in the third quarter, mainly due to the tightening of overseas monetary policy, the increase in the expectation of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in mid-2022, the congestion of transactions in some tracks, the decline of profitability in some industries, etc. Most investment opportunities are concentrated in the first half of 2022, while the second half will be relatively flat.
In 2022, the style of large, medium and small market capitalization companies will tend to be balanced. On the one hand, opportunities for small and medium-sized stocks are still available, and specialized and new small and medium-sized enterprises will receive more policy support. On the other hand, in 2021, the stock market related stocks risk was released, the bubble was squeezed, its valuation declined, and there was room for improvement next year. In the stage of overall market shock or continuous decline, the correlation between stock price and profit is significantly enhanced. At this time, investors' risk preference tends to decline, speculative demand weakens, and their attention to fundamentals increases. High quality stocks with deterministic performance and good growth momentum are more likely to be favored by investors. Therefore, more attention is paid to certainty in 2022. There will be significantly more event driven opportunities in 2022 than in 2021.
There are four main lines in 2022. Main line 1: high prosperity + high-end manufacturing sectors that continue to benefit from policies, such as military industry, new energy, green power, etc. The industry boom is high and the logic is smooth, and the structural differentiation of the new energy industry chain will be greater in 2022. Main line two: the consumption cycle of upward cyclical and rebound opportunities, such as Baijiu, medical services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, etc., are suitable for buying at bargain prices. Main line 3: the industry cycle is upward + the technology sector with great impact on market sentiment, such as computers, media, semiconductors, etc., have rebound power, and attention should be paid to the investment rhythm. Main line 4: undervalued + offensive and defensive financial sector.
(Volkswagen Securities Journal)
