With the gradual return of the real estate industry to rationality, several segments of the upstream and downstream are showing signs of recovery in the short term. On December 21, the data showed that among the industry sectors, real estate development rose by 6.33%, real estate services rose by 7.62%, hotels and catering rose by 4.46%; Among the concept sectors, property management rose 7.08%, rental and sale rights rose 5.90%, characteristic towns rose 4.84%, and many sectors such as equipment construction and land transfer followed.
On December 15, the National Bureau of statistics released the operation of the national economy and the data of the real estate industry in the first 11 months. In terms of real estate, the market is generally stable, commercial housing sales and investment have maintained growth, and the growth trend has slowed down. In the first 11 months, the sales area of commercial housing increased by 4.8% year-on-year; The national investment in real estate development was 13731.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%; The average growth rate in the two years was 6.4%. In response to a reporter's question, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics said that since this year, all localities have adhered to the simultaneous development of purchase and rent and implemented policies according to the city to promote the healthy development of the real estate market. The results have gradually appeared, and the momentum of rapid rise in real estate prices in some cities has been restrained. At the same time, there are still many favorable conditions for the stable development of the real estate industry. For example, after market adjustment, market participants are more rational, and the long-term mechanism of real estate is gradually improving.
According to the analysis and prediction of Kerui Research Center, the investment scale of real estate development in 2021 is expected to increase by 5.2% year-on-year. Among them, the completion investment in construction and installation investment is the main supporting force of development investment, with a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. However, affected by the downturn of the whole industry and the high base of construction and land acquisition in the past two years, the new construction area and land acquisition area are expected to decline by 10.3% and 11.4% respectively.
Institutions generally believe that there are opportunities in some segments upstream and downstream of the real estate industry chain. Guosheng Securities Research Report believes that the central economic work conference pointed out that in terms of infrastructure, infrastructure investment should be carried out moderately in advance. It is expected that the issuance and use of special bonds are expected to be accelerated, and the expected improvement of infrastructure is expected to promote valuation repair. Among them, the real estate sector focuses on promoting the construction of affordable housing, which is expected to become one of the important starting points for steady growth next year.
Kerui pointed out that the current real estate market has picked up slightly. Many real estate enterprises supplement cash flow through project transfer and shareholder loans, and some real estate enterprises continue to raise funds through allotment financing to reserve funds for a new round of investment opportunities next year. It is worth mentioning that in the era of stock in the real estate market, property management has become a new blue ocean, and the separate listing of property management business by real estate enterprises has also become a major trend in the industry.
From the 2021 interim report data of listed property management enterprises, the scale and performance of each enterprise are still improving. According to the analysis of China Index Institute, despite the large increase of listed material enterprises in the early stage and the large short-term fluctuation of the plate inevitably caused by capital cash out, the long-term positive factors of the industry remain unchanged, the property management service space is still huge, and we are optimistic about the development logic of high growth in the future. It is estimated that the scale of the property industry will exceed 27 billion square meters in 2021, and the total revenue of the industry will exceed 675 billion yuan. At the same time, the concentration of the whole market is further improving. On the one hand, large property management enterprises are still growing at a high speed on the basis of huge management area, and the trend of the strong is always strong; On the other hand, small and medium-sized material enterprises quickly increase their market share by means of mergers and acquisitions, market expansion and other means, and even overtake on corners. It is estimated that by the end of this year, the total area of property management in China will reach 27.4 billion square meters. The market share of the top 10 enterprises in terms of area under management will increase from 10.17% in 2020 to 16.1% in 2021, and the market share of the top 100 enterprises will increase from 49.7% in 2020 to 52.1%. It will account for more than half for the first time, and the Matthew effect of the industry will become more and more significant.
Ping An Securities pointed out that it is expected that under the guidance of a virtuous circle, more support measures for the real estate industry in the future are expected to be implemented one after another, driving the industry's financing, sales and land purchase to gradually return to normal.
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(economic information daily)
