Recently, the prices of many daily necessities and food have increased to varying degrees. The news of the rise in the prices of vegetables, melon seeds and soy sauce has frequently become a hot topic among consumers. Recently, after the rise in the price of household paper hit the hot search in early December, the letter of cultural paper price rise came one after another. Now the price rise mode of packaging paper and waste paper has also been opened.
Insiders said that since the end of September this year, the price of paper products has increased for three consecutive months, with each price increase ranging from 200 yuan / ton to 300 yuan / ton. In the past three months, the cumulative increase has reached 600 yuan / ton to 900 yuan / ton. Many paper enterprises, including Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) , Nine Dragons Paper, Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , have issued or repeatedly issued price increase letters since September this year. The price increase of leading large factories has also moved many small and medium-sized paper enterprises to raise prices collectively.
rising raw material pulp prices
The continuous rise of paper prices is mainly due to the rising price of raw material pulp under the background of high market demand. At the same time, the short supply of paper products has exacerbated the driving force of the rise of paper prices.
From the demand side, we can't live without paper everywhere. In the second half of last year, with the improvement of the epidemic situation and the recovery of the industry, the demand of downstream channels was strong; Coupled with the recent entry into the traditional peak season, the implementation of the new "plastic restriction order" has also further increased the demand for paper products. In addition, since November 2020, the spot prices of various types of pulp have shown an upward trend, and the trading volume and prices of some categories have increased simultaneously. Some small and medium-sized paper enterprises even have to "compete with large enterprises" to buy pulp.
From the supply side, in recent years, China has cleaned up and closed a number of small and bulk paper enterprises, and optimized and adjusted the industrial structure in some regions. For example, Fuyang District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province has comprehensively vacated the traditional paper industry, objectively reducing the supply of paper products and tightening the supply and demand.
paper concept stock
outperformed the market
The Research Report of China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) Research Institute shows that at present, China's paper industry is in the top building stage of the fourth cycle. The top of paper price and pulp price has fallen, the company's profits are under pressure, and the new capacity of the industry in the next two years is greater than the market demand.
From the characteristics of this cycle, small and medium-sized production capacity has been eliminated, large factories have formed a "price alliance", the industry pattern has been greatly optimized, and the periodicity is expected to be weakened. Core leaders benefit from cost leadership, pattern optimization, increasing share and strengthening competitiveness.
According to the statistics of the securities times and databao, there are 21 paper concept stocks. Since this year, the stock price has risen by an average of 18.85%, outperforming the market. The cumulative growth of Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) , Yibinpaperindustryco.Ltd(600793) , Zhejiang Rongsheng Environmental Protection Paper Joint Stock Co.Ltd(603165) , Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) during the year exceeded 50%.
In terms of performance, this year, benefiting from the continuous rise of paper prices and the maintenance of a high outlook in the industry, the performance of listed companies with paper-making concept was brilliant. 21 shares achieved profits in the first three quarters, and the net profit attributable to the parent of only four shares, such as C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) , Mcc Meili Cloud Computing Industry Investment Co.Ltd(000815) , fell year-on-year.
In terms of future performance growth, the agency predicts that the annual performance of 9 shares this year is expected to show year-on-year growth, of which the performance of Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) and Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) this year is expected to double.
Since December, northbound capital has accumulated net purchases of C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) , Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) , Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) , Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) and other stocks.
(Securities Times)
