"A shares are expected to go out of the next year's market. The trend of accelerating the inclination of residents' assets to pan equity assets is irreversible. Especially for buyers with a large amount of bank financial funds, the allocation of equity must be the key direction." On December 21, Xia Pengfei, deputy general manager of Financial Research Department of BOCOM, revealed at the press conference of "China's macroeconomic and financial outlook in 2022" held by China financial information center.
Bocom financial management, with assets under management of more than trillion yuan, has always been known for its soundness. Although the pure equity personal financial products have not been released yet, among the mixed varieties of the company, the equity allocation in the closed products with two-year selection value of Boxiang has reached 20% - 30%.
Xia Pengfei said that from the perspective of the world economic prosperity, there may be a gradual decline next year. On the one hand, according to the IMF's forecast, the growth rate of each economy in 2022 will decline compared with this year; On the other hand, with the withdrawal of loose policy, the momentum of global economic recovery will also slow down.
Xia Pengfei said that as the impact of the epidemic subsides, the power of the cycle will eventually emerge. In addition, we also need to pay attention to the repair of the global industrial chain. China's economy will still face multi-objective constraints next year. First, the pressure of steady growth will gradually appear; Secondly, how to deal with the real estate problem properly; More importantly, the cultivation of new driving forces and the upgrading of China's industrial structure. From a cyclical perspective, this is a process of "stabilizing currency + broadening credit".
Referring to the asset allocation of sub categories, Xia Pengfei suggested that interest rate bonds should be over allocated, but low allocated in the medium and long term; Industrial bonds show a trend of differentiation, and the spread gap between subjects with high interest margin and industries with low interest margin has reached a historical high; We should pay attention to special varieties such as green debt and carbon neutral debt.
Xia Pengfei reminded that urban investment bonds account for 30% of the stock proportion in the credit bond market. The overall maturity repayment pressure in the first half of next year is relatively large, so we need to pay attention to the tail risk, but urban investment bonds are still relatively high-quality assets as a whole.
Xia Pengfei believes that A-Shares are one of the few Chinese residents who can achieve an annualized return of 10%, and are expected to get out of the cross-year market. At present, the market liquidity is relatively abundant, and A-Shares should be over allocated in the short term. A-Shares are one of the few large categories of assets in which residents can obtain an annualized return of about 10%. The trend of accelerating the inclination of residents' assets to pan equity assets is irreversible, especially for buyers with a large amount of funds such as bank financial funds, the allocation of equity must be the key direction.
He believes that Hong Kong stocks also deserve attention and can be over allocated in the medium and long term. The expectation of global liquidity contraction will have a negative impact on Hong Kong stocks, but after nearly a year of adjustment, many sectors have relative value and high allocation value in the medium and long term. The Hang Seng index is highly correlated with global liquidity. From the perspective of morphological fitting, it will be close to the trend from 2017 to 2019. The valuation of Hong Kong stocks is currently in a relatively low quantile in history. With the real implementation of the Fed's interest rate increase and digesting all expectations, the allocation value of Hong Kong stocks will appear.
In addition, Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) Financial Research Center judged when looking forward to next year's stock market that it is still difficult for the A-share market index to have a trend market in 2022, but three structural opportunities are still worth looking forward to: first, reversal, including the opportunity for the Internet industry with more fully adjusted policies to return to growth after the standardized policies are clear; Opportunities for offline consumer industries seriously affected by the epidemic to recover after the epidemic subsides; The middle and downstream industries affected by the upstream price rise will improve their profit opportunities as the upstream price falls. The second is growth, focusing on prosperous industries and companies that can still maintain profitable growth in the period of weak economic recession. The third is policy, focusing on industries supported by national policies, such as new energy industry chain related to carbon neutralization, core key technologies and high-end manufacturing fields.
(Shanghai Securities News)
