Looking back on Tuesday's A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened slightly lower. At the beginning of the session, the stock index rose rapidly and turned red. With the gradual decline, the gem index and Shenzhen Composite Index turned green; With the outbreak of the whole real estate sector, other sectors followed one after another, the index picked up in the afternoon, and the gem index stepped out of the V-shaped reversal pattern.
As mentioned by Guosheng securities, the indexes of the two cities have ushered in a Zhongyang rebound after wide adjustment for two consecutive days, which has a great impact on the index structure, and the index is expected to usher in a stable rebound. In terms of operation, the current index structures of the two cities are different, especially the gem is broken, and the rebound is weak on Tuesday, and the center of gravity may continue to move down, which will have a certain impact on the market's long confidence. At the same time, the rising sectors are also dominated by the over falling low prices of real estate and furniture products, while the heat of the high valuation and high growth sectors continues to decrease, and the market style has changed significantly, It is difficult to participate, so we need to be cautious and long. We can focus on securities, real estate, household goods and other oversold sectors that benefit from loose capital.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities said that the market rebounded on Tuesday and returned to above 3600 points to repair the recent weak pattern. The trading of the two cities remained active, with the recovery of market confidence, it is expected that the market is expected to continue to fluctuate and stabilize, and pay attention to the rotation rhythm of the plate and the change of volume energy . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, building materials, household appliances, food and beverage, TMT and other industries.
For the future, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that there is a certain rebound in the market, but the rebound can be small, and it is not out of the short-term downward trend for the time being. In terms of operation, investors can continue to choose the action of stopping profit at every high and reducing positions, take a wait-and-see attitude, carry out short-term hot spot operation with small positions, and gradually increase positions after the market stabilizes effectively.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) believes that is expected to have a greater possibility of small short-term shock of the Shanghai index and a greater possibility of small short-term consolidation of the gem . Investors are advised to pay careful attention to the investment opportunities in real estate, building materials and automobile industries in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
In the macro aspect, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that the one-year LPR quotation in December was 5bp lower than that in the previous month, which was mainly due to the two comprehensive standard cuts in July and December this year and the reduction of bank capital cost caused by the reform of deposit interest rate quotation mechanism gradually implemented since June. The reduction of LPR is not accompanied by the adjustment of policy interest rate. The main purpose is to promote the credit supply of the real economy, which is not only conducive to reducing costs in the manufacturing industry dominated by liquid loans, inclusive small and micro enterprises and other fields, but also conducive to the implementation of the policy direction of housing without speculation. It is expected that there may be a window period for further easing of monetary policy in the first quarter of next year. With the support of policies, the growth rate of social finance is expected to continue to stabilize and recover. We should not be too pessimistic about the economic performance.
In terms of operation strategy, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) points out that the logic of current cross-year market is still valid. There is no need to worry too much about short-term disturbance. The cross-year market will rise up in the fluctuation and rise of the index and the alternating rotation of plates . continue to grasp the three main lines : securities companies, an important carrier of cross year market interpretation; New and old infrastructure, real estate and other sectors benefiting from steady growth expectations and undervalued repair; "Double carbon" related new energy, coal and other sectors. Emotional direction, metauniverse, digital currency and other anti divergence statements in the day, and you can pay attention to relevant trends in the short term.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that under the condition of abundant liquidity years ago, we can still actively grasp the wrong killing of high-quality targets . First, under the background of great downward pressure on the economy, the liquidity of policy care is obvious, and the infrastructure is expected to be stimulated in advance; Secondly, the large financial sector also benefits from loose liquidity. In addition, the overall position is relatively low, and the subsequent performance probability becomes larger; Finally, new energy as a whole is in the process of moderate shock consolidation, and the long-term expectation has not changed. On the whole, under the background of loose liquidity, we should actively pay attention to low-level and high liquidity industries.
Caixin securities mentioned that the current rapid upward period of commodity prices has passed, and China's economy has basically recovered to the pre epidemic level. It is expected that China may be in the stage of marginal decline in inflation and marginal weakening of economic prosperity in the first half of next year. At this stage, it is suggested to allocate assets from the following four main lines: (1) financial sector . At present, the valuation of track stocks has far exceeded that of other sectors. There is a strong demand for make-up in the financial sector that underestimates the value, especially in the securities sector. (2) antiperiodic plate . In the fourth quarter, the marginal demand for exports and inventory replenishment weakened, and the counter cyclical sector may perform under the cross cyclical macroeconomic regulation and control. (3) a plate with booming production and marketing . The current performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation and computer. (4) downstream consumption sector . It is expected that the scissors difference between PPI and CPI will converge in the future, and the consumer sector will probably achieve excess returns in the next half year. Focus on downstream consumer sectors with price increase expectations, such as food and beverage.
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Looking back on Tuesday's A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened slightly lower. At the beginning of the session, the stock index rose rapidly and turned red. With the gradual decline, the gem index and Shenzhen Composite Index turned green; With the outbreak of the whole real estate sector, other sectors followed one after another, the index picked up in the afternoon, and the gem index stepped out of the V-shaped reversal pattern.
As mentioned by Guosheng securities, the indexes of the two cities have ushered in a Zhongyang rebound after wide adjustment for two consecutive days, which has a great impact on the index structure, and the index is expected to usher in a stable rebound. In terms of operation, the current index structures of the two cities are different, especially the gem is broken, and the rebound is weak on Tuesday, and the center of gravity may continue to move down, which will have a certain impact on the market's long confidence. At the same time, the rising sectors are also dominated by the over falling low prices of real estate and furniture products, while the heat of the high valuation and high growth sectors continues to decrease, and the market style has changed significantly, It is difficult to participate, so we need to be cautious and long. We can focus on securities, real estate, household goods and other oversold sectors that benefit from loose capital.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities said that the market rebounded on Tuesday and returned to above 3600 points to repair the recent weak pattern. The trading of the two cities remained active, with the recovery of market confidence, it is expected that the market is expected to continue to fluctuate and stabilize, and pay attention to the rotation rhythm of the plate and the change of volume energy . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, building materials, household appliances, food and beverage, TMT and other industries.
For the future, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that there is a certain rebound in the market, but the rebound can be small, and it is not out of the short-term downward trend for the time being. In terms of operation, investors can continue to choose the action of stopping profit at every high and reducing positions, take a wait-and-see attitude, carry out short-term hot spot operation with small positions, and gradually increase positions after the market stabilizes effectively.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) believes that is expected to have a greater possibility of small short-term shock of the Shanghai index and a greater possibility of small short-term consolidation of the gem . Investors are advised to pay careful attention to the investment opportunities in real estate, building materials and automobile industries in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
In the macro aspect, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that the one-year LPR quotation in December was 5bp lower than that in the previous month, which was mainly due to the two comprehensive standard cuts in July and December this year and the reduction of bank capital cost caused by the reform of deposit interest rate quotation mechanism gradually implemented since June. The reduction of LPR is not accompanied by the adjustment of policy interest rate. The main purpose is to promote the credit supply of the real economy, which is not only conducive to reducing costs in the manufacturing industry dominated by liquid loans, inclusive small and micro enterprises and other fields, but also conducive to the implementation of the policy direction of housing without speculation. It is expected that there may be a window period for further easing of monetary policy in the first quarter of next year. With the support of policies, the growth rate of social finance is expected to continue to stabilize and recover. We should not be too pessimistic about the economic performance.
In terms of operation strategy, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) points out that the logic of current cross-year market is still valid. There is no need to worry too much about short-term disturbance. The cross-year market will rise up in the fluctuation and rise of the index and the alternating rotation of plates . continue to grasp the three main lines : securities companies, an important carrier of cross year market interpretation; New and old infrastructure, real estate and other sectors benefiting from steady growth expectations and undervalued repair; "Double carbon" related new energy, coal and other sectors. Emotional direction, metauniverse, digital currency and other anti divergence statements in the day, and you can pay attention to relevant trends in the short term.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that under the condition of abundant liquidity years ago, we can still actively grasp the wrong killing of high-quality targets . First, under the background of great downward pressure on the economy, the liquidity of policy care is obvious, and the infrastructure is expected to be stimulated in advance; Secondly, the large financial sector also benefits from loose liquidity. In addition, the overall position is relatively low, and the subsequent performance probability becomes larger; Finally, new energy as a whole is in the process of moderate shock consolidation, and the long-term expectation has not changed. On the whole, under the background of loose liquidity, we should actively pay attention to low-level and high liquidity industries.
Caixin securities mentioned that the current rapid upward period of commodity prices has passed, and China's economy has basically recovered to the pre epidemic level. It is expected that China may be in the stage of marginal decline in inflation and marginal weakening of economic prosperity in the first half of next year. At this stage, it is suggested to allocate assets from the following four main lines: (1) financial sector . At present, the valuation of track stocks has far exceeded that of other sectors. There is a strong demand for make-up in the financial sector that underestimates the value, especially in the securities sector. (2) antiperiodic plate . In the fourth quarter, the marginal demand for exports and inventory replenishment weakened, and the counter cyclical sector may perform under the cross cyclical macroeconomic regulation and control. (3) a plate with booming production and marketing . The current performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation and computer. (4) downstream consumption sector . It is expected that the scissors difference between PPI and CPI will converge in the future, and the consumer sector will probably achieve excess returns in the next half year. Focus on downstream consumer sectors with price increase expectations, such as food and beverage.
