At the 16th "China core" IC industry promotion conference held recently in 2021, Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) deputy general manager Chen Dongpo predicted that in 2023-2024, 80-90% or even 100% of the models with long endurance mileage will be imported into silicon carbide (SIC) devices. for models with a range of 400-500km, he expects to start introducing (SIC) after 2024, and the overall penetration rate of this kind of vehicles will reach about 40%. For such models below 400km, he expects to follow up gradually after 2025, and the overall penetration rate of such models will not be very high, which is estimated to be about 10%.
Affected by this news, Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) once approached the daily limit in early trading (see the figure below).
At present, silicon-based IGBT is the mainstream of vehicle power module, which determines the key performance of electric drive system and energy efficiency of new energy vehicle. It is the second highest cost component except battery.
the demand for high voltage, lightweight and high efficiency of new energy vehicles calls for higher performance semiconductor devices. it is understood that the way out for car companies to build 800V high-voltage platform is to make an article on IGBT and replace the current silicon-based IGBT with SiC devices. In addition, SiC can also miniaturize modules and surrounding components and promote lightweight application of vehicles. SiC also plays an important role in improving mileage, shortening charging time and reducing overall cost.
As the production process and technology of SiC devices become more and more mature, "cost performance" is the biggest problem that prevents SiC from replacing IGBT. At present, the cost of SiC power devices is about 3-5 times that of Si based IGBT. The scale application of is the key to promote the rapid decline of SiC cost. In the future, with the gradual release of SiC capacity, the cost is expected to drop to about twice that of silicon-based IGBT.
Tesla's model 3 and model y have been fully upgraded to SiC main drive inverter, which is expected to be fully applied to all models next year. Chen Dongpo said that Byd Company Limited(002594) , Volkswagen and Geely are more and more mature in the OBC (electric vehicle on-board charger) scenario; At present, only Byd Company Limited(002594) and Tesla have mass production capacity in terms of main drive. Although Geely and BAIC have some relatively clear plans, in comparison, new car making forces such as ideal and Xiaopeng will be more active in importing SiC modules.
IHS report shows that the market scale of SiC power devices is expected to exceed US $10 billion in 2027, of which the sales of new energy vehicles continue to exceed expectations, making SiC MOSFET expected to become the best-selling power device and maintain a rapid growth rate. In addition, according to the estimation of DIGITIMES research, a research and adjustment organization, the market scale of SiC in electric vehicle application can reach US $650 million in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 25-30% from 2021 to 2025.
In this context, SiC leading suppliers have actively expanded their production. recently, the Nikkei reported that Japanese enterprises have increased their investment in SiC. Roma plans to expand the production capacity of SiC power semiconductors to more than five times by 2025. Geely's pure electric vehicles have decided to adopt Roma products; Toshiba plans to increase the output of SiC plant in Hyogo Prefecture, Japan, to more than 3 times that of 2020 in 2023 and 10 times as soon as possible, and plans to obtain a global share of more than 10% in 2030; Fuji Electric is also considering putting SiC products into production six months to one year ahead of the original plan (2025). In addition, in November this year, ansenmey also acquired gtat, which is mainly used to ensure the supply of SiC wafers in the future.
Among Chinese manufacturers, China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) released 1200V SiC MOSFET products independently developed and produced on December 17, which can be applied to new energy vehicle OBC, charging pile and other scenarios; Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) is the first manufacturer in China to complete the mass production platform of SiC MOSFET devices. At present, it is accelerating the layout of SiC vertical industrial chain; The SiC module of Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) has obtained several new fixed points of 800V platform motor controller; Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) is the leader of China's high-voltage on-board electronic control system. All products adopt SiC power devices and have a large number of relevant technical reserves.
In addition, Zhejiang Tony Electronic Co.Ltd(603595) and Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) have recently announced that they will raise funds by fixed increase to build SiC projects. Among them, Zhejiang Tony Electronic Co.Ltd(603595) plans to produce 120000 SiC semiconductor materials per year, Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) plans to promote the R & D and industrialization of SiC power devices and packaging and testing.
Big news comes from chip giants. This device may accelerate the penetration of Tesla, Huawei and other giants competing for layout (attached shares)
(Financial Associated Press)
