Viewpoint: according to the latest PMI data, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole maintained a good foundation. With the inflation peaking expectation strengthened and the RRR reduction expectation landed, the expectation of monetary easing increased again, bringing an overall boost to the market. Under the expectation of monetary and credit easing in the coming year, the market is also expected to gradually open a good trend. In the short term, after last week’s adjustment, the index bottomed out and rebounded this week, and ushered in a general rise. In terms of stage, under the reduction of reserve requirement and LPR, the expectation of monetary easing cycle is enhanced, which is expected to support the bottom of the market. The logic of A-share structure has not changed, and bargain hunting is still a good bargain hunting opportunity.
Today, both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened high and fluctuated after the opening. Under the arrangement of heavyweights, the Shanghai index operated in a small space and turned green slightly in the afternoon. The performance of Chinese theme stocks was strong under the boost of peripheral medium concept stocks, which boosted the performance of gem and Shenzhen composite index. So far, the short-term adjustment since the 13th has basically come to an end. In terms of sectors, the media sector led the rise, while many sectors such as electronics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and building materials strengthened, while real estate ushered in a retreat, and architectural decoration, steel and non bank finance fell.
Yesterday, more than 3400 stocks rose in the two cities, which is also the day with the largest number of gainers in the two cities for some time, which fully shows that the overall mood of the market is good. Today, the index ushered in differentiation, especially the callback after the continuous sharp rise of the real estate industry chain, which caused some inhibition to the market. However, it is reasonable. After all, yesterday we also proposed that the differentiation after the continuous rise of the real estate sector is inevitable. However, for the real estate sector, the rebound trend of the sector under the policy boost is not over, and there are still repeated.
For today’s market differentiation, on the one hand, it is the impact of the return of blue chips such as real estate. On the other hand, it is also a digestion after yesterday’s general rise; In addition, the rise of overseas Chinese concept stocks stimulated the continuous rebound of the gem and Shenzhen composite index. Therefore, the overall performance of the market is healthy, the overall momentum is under rotation, and the structural market is still strong.
Since last week, there have been continuous adjustments in the market. We believe that the adjustment here is a benign step back, mainly due to the previous continuous and rapid upward decline in demand and the impact of sharp fluctuations in overseas markets. Of course, there is also the suppression of news in the Chinese market. With the support of fundamentals, the two days ushered in a gradual recovery. With the central bank’s RRR reduction and LPR reduction, the easing cycle has been opened, and the overall liquidity may tend to be abundant under stable liquidity, which will boost the market. The stage adjustment is expected to come to an end and continue the overall good trend.
In short, with the policy of steady growth, we continue to be optimistic about the market in the next year and the first quarter of next year. In the recent consolidation process, investors can still consider bargain hunting for appropriate allocation. In terms of specific opportunities, it is suggested to explore from three angles: first, the “steady growth” or phased main line from the policy perspective, and the involved sectors can track building materials, construction machinery, food and beverage and household appliances; Secondly, it can also be superimposed with varieties with high attention to funds in the north, such as financial and other value blue chips, in which it can focus on the securities sector with undervalued value and good performance; Third, science and technology and new energy are mainly varieties with relatively uncertain growth under the downward pressure of the economy.
(Jufeng Finance)
