Today, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector with a total market value of more than 1.6 trillion soared by 2.5%, which is the fourth consecutive day that the sector closed positive! The concepts of pork and seed industry are active. As of today’s closing, Fujian Tianma Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(603668) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) limit; Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Cofco Biotechnology Co.Ltd(000930) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) rose by more than 6%.
North ambush seed industry and pork
East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) choice data show that in the past month, northbound funds known as “smart money” have ambushed agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery concept stocks in advance.
Specifically, it mainly focuses on the concepts of seed industry and pork, Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) obtained more than 10 million shares, of which Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) increased by more than 40 million shares, an increase of 96% compared with the proportion of shareholding change at the beginning of October.
And Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) obtained an increase of more than 37 million shares, an increase of nearly 60% compared with the proportion of shareholding change in early October
From the perspective of agricultural prices, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) research report shows that the increase of breeding scale drives the sharp increase of corn demand, and China’s corn shows a situation of insufficient production and demand for two consecutive years. The temporary storage inventory is exhausted, driving the import dependence from 3% to 8-10%. The impact of overseas prices is increasing day by day. As one of the core logic supporting the seed industry sector, the easy rise and difficult fall of corn prices will bring direct benefits to the seed industry sector.
In terms of staple food, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that the price trend of wheat and corn formed a resonance under the cross substitution of feed demand. After the launch since the beginning of 2020, China’s temporary storage inventory is expected to have decreased by 40% compared with the beginning of last year. With the significant delay in sowing of rainy winter wheat this autumn (accounting for 85%), the wheat price will remain strong, and the price of staple food will be strong, which is good for planting enterprises.
In addition to the seed industry, pork concept stocks have also obtained positive positions of northward funds. According to the data of East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) choice, the northward capital increased the position of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 15 million shares in more than one month, an increase of 10% compared with the proportion of shareholding change at the beginning of October. In addition, Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) also obtained more than 4 million shares and 2 million shares respectively.
public and private fundraising “bottom reading”
In addition to northward funds, major funds such as public offering and private placement have also increased their holdings of pork leading concept stocks recently.
For example, while pork leader Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) released the third quarter on October 18, it also announced a fixed increase plan. The company plans to issue no more than 149216612 shares (including this number) in non-public, all of which are subscribed by muyuan group, the controlling shareholder of the company, in cash, with a total fund-raising of no more than 6 billion yuan.
On November 1, New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) announced that on November 1, 2021, the company received a notice from the fund manager beijing Ruiyi Investment Management Co., Ltd. that its plan to increase its holdings of the company’s shares has been completed. During the period of increase, the fund increased its holdings of the company’s shares by 1970.44 million shares, accounting for 0.44% of the company’s total share capital (based on the statistics of the company’s total share capital as of October 29, 2021), The total amount of increased holdings is 256 million yuan (including transaction fees).
Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) according to the previous three quarterly reports, Feng Liu’s gaoyilinshan No. 1 Yuanwang fund has become the fifth largest circulating shareholder of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) with a reference market value of 1.034 billion yuan at the end of the period.
rebound is not an inflection point
Pork prices have rebounded since mid October. Judging from the pig futures market in October, pork has shown a rising trend.
From the perspective of comprehensive institutions, the rebound means that it may be close to the bottom, but it is not an inflection point. Pig enterprises may suffer losses for some time.
AVIC Securities said that at the same time, under the low pig price and high food price, the breeding profit is under pressure. The head pig breeding enterprises have reported huge losses in the third quarter, and the maximum loss may be the night before the worst comes. The phased bottoming of absolute pig prices means that the most pessimistic expectations of the sector have been fully released. Both pig prices and stock prices are basically at a relatively low point. There is very limited room to continue downward, and the safety margin of sector investment is relatively high. However, without a fundamental change in core capacity, it still takes time for the inflection point of the pig cycle.
On October 20, at the press conference of the State Council Information Office, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas said that from January to September this year, the slaughter of pigs by designated pig slaughtering enterprises above designated scale increased by 60.9% year-on-year, including 95.2% year-on-year in September. Pig production has fully recovered in the second quarter. Due to the inertial growth of production, there is a phased surplus in the current market supply.
For the market trend of pigs in the coming period, Kong Liang, head of the animal husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, said that since March, the number of newborn pigs in large-scale pig farms has been more than 30 million per month, and has continued to grow. From August to September, the stock of fertile sows in China was close to 110% of the normal stock. It is expected that the number of fat pigs listed from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year will increase significantly year-on-year, and the relative surplus of pig supply will continue for some time.
