Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that the performance volatility of S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) in the past decade was mainly due to the mismatch between production capacity and demand. SF production capacity was previously invested and built according to the time effective business plan, and the demand was often determined by the supply side of the company’s new product promotion, resulting in an obvious production performance cycle. The company’s current performance pressure mainly lies in the fact that the business scale exceeds the bottleneck of network capacity. We believe that SF is in the stage of the latest round of production capacity upward. In the second half of the year, some new production capacity and the four networks financing materials will be effective, and the company’s performance is expected to improve year-on-year. At the same time, after the new round of production capacity upward period, it is expected that the company will enter a ramp up period of production capacity utilization with improved cost next year, and the company’s performance will be significantly repaired in combination with Kerry Logistics. We adjusted the company’s EPS forecast for 2021 / 22 / 23 to 1.00/1.72/2.24 yuan (the original forecast was 1.01/1.42/1.82 yuan), and the current price corresponding to PE was 73 / 42 / 32 times. Under the segment valuation method, 25 times PE for time effective business and 1.5 times PS for other businesses are given. It is estimated that the company’s target market value is about 400 billion yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
(Securities Times)
