According to the Research Report of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) took the lead in releasing the first generation sodium ion battery. The performance such as energy density and ab structure innovation exceeded market expectations, highlighting the company’s strong innovation ability and leading industrial development. The global trend of automobile electrification is determined, the high-end power battery is in continuous shortage, and the global energy storage market is approaching the outbreak. As the global leader of large batteries, the company fully enjoys the explosive growth of the industry. The market space brought by energy reform is huge, the company has high growth certainty and long-term allocation value. Considering the high growth of the company’s business, the company is given a PE valuation of 65 times in 2023, with a corresponding market value of 1755 billion yuan and a target price of 754 yuan / share.
full text of Research Report:
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750): take the lead in releasing sodium ion batteries, and technological innovation leads industrial development
On July 29, the company released the first generation sodium ion battery, which made a breakthrough in materials, performance and cost. Our comments are as follows:
took the lead in releasing sodium ion batteries, and Technological Innovation led the development. The company released the first generation sodium ion battery, which exceeded the market expectation. The general situation is as follows:
(I) battery performance parameters: 1) energy density: the energy density of single cell reaches 160wh / kg, exceeding the market expectation (about 120wh / kg). The company expects that the energy density of the next generation sodium ion battery will exceed 200wh / kg; 2) Fast charging capacity: charge for 15min at room temperature, and the power can reach 80%. Under – 20 ℃ low temperature environment, there is more than 90% discharge retention rate, and the low temperature performance is good; 3) The system integration efficiency exceeds 80%.
(II) material system: 1) cathode materials: Prussian white and layered oxide materials with potential commercial value, and the gram capacity has reached 160mah / g, which is close to the existing cathode materials for lithium ion batteries; 2) Negative electrode materials: the company develops hard carbon materials with unique pore structure that can store and pass a large number of sodium ions. The gram capacity can be more than 350mah / g, which is close to graphite materials (about 360mah / g), and has excellent cycle performance; 3) Electrolyte: the company has developed a new and unique electrolyte system, which can be compatible with the current lithium-ion battery manufacturing process and equipment in terms of manufacturing process.
(III) structural innovation: AB battery solution mixes and shares the integration of sodium ion batteries and lithium-ion batteries, and integrates them into the same battery system. They are mixed, connected in series, connected in parallel and integrated according to a certain proportion and arrangement. Through the accurate algorithm of BMS for the balanced control of different battery systems, the lithium sodium battery system is expected to adapt to more application scenarios. Previously, the company launched CTP and CTC solutions in terms of structural innovation. This time, it launched AB battery solutions, which exceeded market expectations.
The company has started the industrialization layout of sodium ion batteries and plans to form a basic industrial chain in 2023. The release of sodium ion battery further demonstrates the company’s R & D and innovation ability.
four innovations support three strategic directions and help accelerate the realization of carbon neutrality.
At present, the company’s four major innovation system directions are mainly material and chemical system innovation, system structure innovation, extreme manufacturing, business model innovation, etc. The four innovation systems help the company achieve three strategic directions: 1) replace fixed fossil energy with renewable energy power generation and energy storage. The company has made a lot of efforts at the power generation end, power grid end and user end, focusing on electrochemical energy storage; 2) Boost the development of electric vehicles with power batteries, continuously improve battery performance and accelerate the comprehensive electrification in the field of transportation; 3) Accelerate the process of new energy substitution in various fields with integrated innovation of electrification + intelligence. The company’s four innovations and three strategies help the country accelerate the realization of carbon neutrality.
China’s share remained high and overseas exports increased significantly.
Under the demand of downstream vehicle enterprises to continuously improve the quality of electric vehicle products, the company, as the absolute leader of first-line power batteries, continues to maintain a high market share. In terms of the Chinese market, according to GGII data, the installed capacity of power battery of 2021h1 company is 20.99gwh (excluding joint venture), a year-on-year increase of + 143%, and the installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery in the same period is 46.4gwh, a year-on-year increase of + 165%. The installed Market share of the company is 45.2%, a year-on-year -4pcts, and the market share remains the first. In the overseas market, according to the statistics of GGII, the global power battery installed capacity of 2021h1 company is 25.73gwh, accounting for 25.6% of the global market, and continues to remain the first. In terms of overseas market, according to the statistics of Ningde customs, the declared export value of power batteries in 2021q1 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is 2.517 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.7 times, and the overseas market has a significant force.
technology leads the industry, deeply expands markets at home and abroad, and the system capacity continues to highlight .
1) technology leading: the company is a global leader in power battery technology, has the above “four innovations” ability and leads the industrial development.
2) capacity expansion: the company continues to increase its capacity investment in Ningde, Fujian, Yibin, Sichuan, Liyang, Jiangsu and Germany. It is expected that the company’s capacity will reach about 90 / 200 / 300gwh (excluding the joint venture) by the end of 2020 / 2021e / 2022e respectively, further increasing the capacity moat.
3) customer breakthrough: in China, the company deeply binds almost all mainstream electric vehicle enterprises (including traditional automobile enterprises such as SAIC, Geely, Yutong, BAIC and GAC, as well as new car manufacturers such as Weilai, Weima and Xiaopeng), and establishes joint ventures with SAIC, Geely, GAC, Dongfeng and FAW; Overseas, the company has cooperated with BMW, Daimler, Volkswagen, Honda, Jaguar Land Rover, PSA and other international brands, and provided comprehensive and in-depth support to overseas giant customers such as Tesla.
4) comprehensive layout: in the field of lithium battery and energy storage, the company has successively taken shares in Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Fujian Yongfu Power Engineering Co.Ltd(300712) and Canadian lithium mining company; In the field of new energy vehicles, cooperate with Huawei Changan to build vehicles; In the field of automatic driving, invest in yingche technology; Chip field, investment horizon.
risk factors:
The sales volume of downstream new energy vehicles did not meet expectations; The price of power battery went down more than expected; Price fluctuation of raw materials; Technical route change, etc.
investment advice:
Adjust the company’s forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 22 and 23 to RMB 10.1/196/27 billion respectively (previously predicted to be RMB 10.8/158/21.4 billion), corresponding to eps4.0 billion 35 / 8.41 / 11.60 yuan (originally predicted 4.65 / 6.77 / 9.19 yuan), and the current price corresponds to 128 / 66 / 50 times of PE in 2021, 22 and 23 respectively. The global trend of automobile electrification is determined, the high-end power battery is in continuous shortage, and the global energy storage market is approaching the outbreak. As the global leader of large batteries, the company fully enjoys the explosive growth of the industry. The market space brought by energy reform is huge, the company has high growth certainty and long-term allocation value. Considering the high growth of the company’s business, the company is given a PE valuation of 65 times in 2023, with a corresponding market value of 1755 billion yuan and a target price of 754 yuan / share. Continue to recommend and maintain the “buy” rating.
related interpretation:
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) here comes the sodium ion battery! Concept stocks doubled in two months. Which stocks in the industrial chain have the opportunity to understand?
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(Securities Times)
