Next week (November 29 – December 3), 50 stocks will face the lifting of the ban, with a scale of 52.357 billion yuan. Among them, 19 stocks were the first original shareholders’ shares and the first strategic placement shares, with a scale of 19.403 billion yuan, accounting for more than 37.1%.
It is worth noting that 790 million shares of diesel engine Bull Stock Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) with a market value of 120 billion yuan will be lifted, with a market value of more than 12.4 billion yuan, which is also the largest individual stock with the market value lifted next week. However, based on the current stock price, the rate of return on the lifting of the ban is – 2.31%, and even restricted shareholders have been covered. The yield of lifting the ban on individual stocks such as China Enterprise Company Limited(600675) , Tunghsu Azure Renewable Energy Co.Ltd(000040) , Weilong Grape Wine Co.Ltd(603779) , Zhejiang Wazam New Materials Co.Ltd(603186) is also negative, which means that the probability of these shareholders leaving the market will not be too high.
From the perspective of market performance, the share capital of Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Shanghai Allist Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(688578) – u, which ranks first in the market value of lifting the ban next week, fell to varying degrees. Investors have predicted the tide of lifting the ban and avoided risks in advance.
From the historical data, the impact of lifting the ban on the company’s stock price will probably be short-term, and the fundamentals should be paid more attention to. The share price fell after the lifting of the ban, which may provide investors with buying opportunities.
The current price of 7 stocks is lower than the locked price
The latest closing data show that the current prices of at least seven stocks are lower than the lock-in price, namely Tunghsu Azure Renewable Energy Co.Ltd(000040) , Weilong Grape Wine Co.Ltd(603779) , China Enterprise Company Limited(600675) , Zhejiang Wazam New Materials Co.Ltd(603186) , Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600248) , Chison Medical Technologies Co.Ltd(688358) , Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) . Except that the Chison Medical Technologies Co.Ltd(688358) lifting type is the initial strategic placement of shares, other lifting types are private placement. This shows that private placement does not necessarily bring excess returns to the secondary market.
On December 1, Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) 793 million shares will be lifted. When Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) implemented the fixed increase, the issue price was 16.40 yuan / share, but after the fixed increase lock period ended, the share price did not rise but fell, and the investors participating in Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) fixed increase may have no “power” to reduce their holdings.
At that time, the 39 investors participating in Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) fixed growth had a strong lineup. Among many investors, UBS was allocated the largest amount, 72.1378 million shares, with a corresponding amount of 1.183 billion yuan. Secondly, CAITONG fund was allocated 53.7762 million shares, with a corresponding amount of 882 million yuan. In addition, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) , Guohai Franklin, Hongde fund, Boshi fund, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) and other large securities companies, public offerings and insurance funds are also on the list.
From the stock price trend, some stocks have “fallen first for respect”, Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) this week (November 22 to November 26) fell by 2.73%. Stocks with high yield after lifting the ban fell more significantly. Photovoltaic bull stocks Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , whose share price doubled this year, had a yield of 1014% and a decline of 12.63% this week. The yield of Ningbo Fangzheng Automobile Mould Co.Ltd(300998) lifting the ban was 574%, and the decline this week also reached 8.67%.
A senior investment manager of a state-owned bank who has participated in the strategic placement told reporters that the lifting of the ban on restricted shares means that more circulating shares may flow into the market, which will form a certain selling pressure on the market. In particular, if the restricted shareholders obtain higher profits, the power of profit taking will be greater. However, many shareholders holding Limited shares may also face other options, which will lead them not to easily sell their shares, and may even attract funds after other stock holders sell their shares. Therefore, whether the lifting of the ban on restricted shares constitutes bad for the stock price should be analyzed in detail.
when the ban is lifted, what should investors do?
From the increase proportion of tradable shares before and after the lifting of the ban, the listed number of restricted shares of Dezhong automobile, Shanghai Allist Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(688578) -u, Yunnan Jianzhijia Health-Chain Co.Ltd(605266) , Bluesword Intelligent Technology Co.Ltd(688557) , Shenzhen Longli Technology Co.Ltd(300752) , Hunan Yujing Machinery Co.Ltd(002943) , Jiangsu Xiehe Electronic Co.Ltd(605258) , Xinxiang Richful Lube Additive Co.Ltd(300910) 8 companies accounted for more than 80% of the Tradable share capital. After the lifting of the ban, the number of tradable shares will increase sharply, which is worthy of investors’ attention.
Among them, Hunan Yujing Machinery Co.Ltd(002943) 46.85 million shares of the most “cow” industrial machine concept shares will be lifted on November 29. After the lifting of the ban, the number of restricted shares will account for 89% of the circulating share capital and 46.85% of the total share capital. In the face of a huge lifting of the ban, its share price may face a “stress test”.
From November 8 to November 24, Hunan Yujing Machinery Co.Ltd(002943) obtained eight trading boards, and the stock price increased by 147.21%. On November 25, Hunan Yujing Machinery Co.Ltd(002943) was suspended to check the abnormal fluctuation of stock trading.
The investment manager of the above-mentioned state-owned bank said that when the ban on individual shares held by investors is lifted, it is advisable to make preparations in three aspects:
First, predict whether there will be a wave of selling by minority shareholders in the secondary market a few days before the lifting of the ban. There will certainly be fluctuations in the short term, which can be avoided in the short term;
The second is to grasp the fundamental analysis. When the company’s share price is undervalued, the current price is not far from the cost price of shareholders, the shareholders have little room for profit from exercising and selling, and the space for share price decline is limited or even may not fall;
Third, it depends on whether the major shareholders say they hold stocks. If they buy instead of selling stocks, it will increase investor confidence and promote the rise of stock prices.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that from the statistical results of the historical data of the first ten weeks with the highest lifting scale since 2012, the high lifting scale of a single week has not had a significant impact on the overall performance of the short-term market before and after the lifting of the ban, and the impact brought by the lifting of the ban is more reflected in the individual stock level. From the perspective of different types of lifting the ban, compared with the lifting of the ban on the shares of the original initial shareholders and the lifting of the ban on equity incentive shares, the negative impact of the lifting of the ban on the placement shares of fixed value-added institutions on the performance of individual shares is more obvious.
(Shanghai Securities News)
