Over the past week, the sudden change in the situation in Ukraine has basically dominated the global capital market. A shares are no exception, especially last Thursday, when the sound of Ukrainian artillery came, the three major stock indexes fell. On the same day, the turnover of the two markets exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan, a new high in nearly five months, indicating that some funds were selling intensively.
In the face of the rapidly changing overseas situation, the micro changes of some A shares themselves are easy to be ignored. The performance express of key companies, the latest trend of northbound funds and the trading data of derivatives... Although these micro changes are not as noticeable as "fierce war" and "explosion", they may be the key factors to guide the future direction of the market.
blue chip varieties independently strengthened
Last week, about 500 listed companies disclosed the 2021 annual performance express, which was the most intensive week of performance disclosure this year. This should have attracted great attention from the market, but it was covered by the turmoil of the overseas situation.
The reporter of Shanghai Securities News found that last week, eight companies received at least two securities companies to raise their EPS (earnings per share) forecast for 2022 by more than 10%. The higher than expected performance express is the main reason for the centralized increase of profit forecast by securities companies. In addition, some companies have signed large orders, which are also regarded as the top line.
Combined with the market, seven of the eight companies that have received substantial revision of profit forecasts by securities companies rose last week, with an average increase of 9.29%, and achieved significant excess returns compared with the broader market. More importantly, the earnings of key companies exceeded expectations, which confirmed the high outlook of the industry, thus driving the relevant sectors out of the independent market.
For example, Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) 22 disclosed the performance express. In 2021, the company achieved a net profit of 925 million yuan, an increase of 185.5%. The company also disclosed the performance forecast. It is expected to achieve a net profit of 900 million to 1.2 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 105367% to 143822%.
As soon as the performance came out, a number of securities companies followed up the research report. Guosheng Securities said, Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) this performance "greatly exceeded market expectations". Under the high prosperity of lithium salt industry, the company's single ton profit level increased significantly and the profit of lithium business increased significantly; Raise the company's EPS forecast for 2022 to 3.68 yuan, up 204% from the previous forecast (1.21 yuan).
Reflected in the share price, Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) rose 29.63% last week. Driven by it, the lithium resources sector broke away from the market and went out of the independent market. The lithium mine index rose by 5.73% in a single week. Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) and others recorded different increases, which were not disturbed by the overall sentiment of the market.
Another example is Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) last week's announcement of signing a large order of 3.542 billion yuan, highlighting the company's comprehensive strength in the small molecule cdmo industry. After the release of relevant announcements, Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) last week, more than 10 securities companies raised their profit forecasts, among which the EPS forecasts for 2022 given by China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) and Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) all increased by more than 50%.
Combined with Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) the newly signed order of 681 million US dollars, the market position of China's cro industry in the international pharmaceutical field is reflected. Relevant stocks also gradually got rid of the early decline. The cro index rose 5.08% last week and has rebounded about 15% in the past two weeks.
From this point of view, although the recent overseas situation has been turbulent, there are still main funds to focus on the adjustment of the performance of listed companies and the profit of sellers, so as to capture the investment opportunities of potential blue chip stocks.
institutional funds are relatively "calm"
Although uncertainties are increasing, foreign capital did not withdraw significantly from the A-share market last week. On Thursday, the most volatile stock index, northbound funds sold only 3.358 billion yuan, and the outflow was made up the next day. Last Friday, northbound funds bought a substantial net 6.385 billion yuan, with a cumulative net purchase of 18.707 billion yuan so far this year.
The stock selection preference of foreign capital is also very clear - continue to increase positions in growth sectors such as new energy. Based on the change in the number of shares held by northbound capital multiplied by the average transaction price, last week, 17 of the top 30 heavy positions of northbound capital were increased by foreign capital, Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) received a net purchase of 1.279 billion yuan, ranking the first. In addition, almost all the other increased positions by foreign capital were growth stocks.
Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) two photovoltaic leaders received net purchases of 643 million yuan and 477 million yuan respectively from BEIXIANG last week; Cro leader Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) received a net purchase of 417 million yuan, and semiconductor leader Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) received a net purchase of 210 million yuan The net purchases of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) and other key new energy companies exceeded 200 million yuan.
For the reasons why foreign capital did not withdraw significantly and significantly increased its position in growth stocks, some views put forward by the institution are worthy of reference. In the long run, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that China's market environment of "low inflation + prudent monetary policy + reasonable equity valuation" in 2022 is better than the combination of "high inflation + tight monetary policy + high equity valuation" in European and American markets. In the short term, Jiasheng group said that under the background of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Federal Reserve may slow down the process of monetary tightening to maintain the stability of the US economy.
Also "calm" are some domestic institutions. On the one hand, the tide of self purchase of public funds is still continuing. Last week, CAITONG asset management and Nanfang Fund issued self purchase plans to show their confidence in the company's active investment management ability; On the other hand, Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) , Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) and other Baima stocks had block transactions of RMB 100 million last week, and the recipients of these block transactions were institutional seats.
three major periods of rising water
There are also positive signals in the stock index futures market that deserve attention, especially in the process of market shock on Thursday, some main futures index contracts turned from discount to premium.
Around the afternoon of last Thursday, the situation in Russia and Ukraine suddenly changed, and the financial sentiment was impacted. In just five minutes after the afternoon opening, the Shanghai Composite Index retreated by more than 1% and the gem index fell by nearly 2%. Although the spot stock index has been significantly adjusted, the corresponding stock index futures trend is much "calm".
As of the closing of last Thursday, the main contract of CSI 300 index has changed from the discount of 5.85 points of the previous day to the premium of 4.68 points; CSI 500 refers to the main contract from the previous day's discount of 2.22 points to a premium of 8.72 points; The main contract of SSE 50 index also expanded from the previous day's premium of 5.76 points to 6.96 points. By analyzing the high-frequency data, it can be found that the specific time points of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 futures indexes from discount to premium appeared in the process of violent market fluctuations in the afternoon of that day.
Due to factors such as stock dividends, market environment and trading liquidity, the above stock index futures remain at a discount for most of the time. For this reason, the jump of futures index from discount to premium has become an important indicator to observe the capital sentiment of derivatives market.
LUZHENG futures believes that the departure of hedging and the active involvement of bottom reading funds are the main reasons for promoting the jump of futures index market from discount to premium structure. At the same time, the jump of stock index futures from discount to premium structure after a long decline reflects that market investors are no longer bearish on a shares. Although the spot market may still be in a volatile decline pattern during this period, the decline of the spot market at this time is not enough to shake the premium pattern under the "not pessimistic" benchmark of the futures market.
\u3000\u3000 "IC and if contracts in recent months have turned into premium status, and IH contract premium in recent months has continued to expand. From this point of view, under the background of the decline of the spot market, the performance of futures is relatively calm, and there are continuous differences between financial derivatives and spot, which does not resonate, indicating that the market is not extremely bearish. On the other hand, the implied volatility of stock index options increased by only 2 percentage points on Thursday, which also indicates that the derivatives market The mood is relatively calm. " China Merchants futures analyst Yu Hushan said.
