Affected by the geographical situation, the global capital market fluctuated violently last week, and the risk aversion increased. While the prices of risky assets such as stocks were significantly adjusted, the prices of commodities such as gold and oil fluctuated higher, and the net value of related theme funds also rose.
Public funders pointed out that the market presents obvious “risk aversion” characteristics, but the geographical situation is not the decisive factor of the current market trend. Investors should not panic about this. Investment needs to focus on long-term logic.
stock market is expected to gradually recover
Data show that last week, the Russian stock index fell nearly 30%, the Polish stock index fell nearly 15%, and the stock indexes of Hungary, Austria, Turkey and other countries fell more than 5%. In terms of a shares, the main stock indexes followed the adjustment in the first half of last week, but after the rebound in the second half of last week, some stock indexes have turned red.
South Fund pointed out that the geographical situation is the main disturbing factor of the current stock market. At present, the geographical situation is still uncertain, and short-term asset price fluctuations are inevitable. Ping An Fund said that the geographical situation will reduce the risk appetite of global investors, but also shrink the supply of crude oil, natural gas, high-end industrial raw materials and other fields, thus pushing up the level of global inflation and interfering with the global economic recovery. Qianhai open source Fund believes that due to the tense geographical situation and the rising global risk aversion, the A-share trading sentiment will naturally be affected, but investors should not panic about it, and current investors should not leave the market.
“Affected by the geographical situation, the global market fluctuates obviously, but the geographical situation is not the decisive factor of the market trend.” Wang Jing, chief strategist of ChuangJin Hexin fund, told the China Securities Journal that the main reason for the recent global asset price fluctuations is that from the second half of 2021, the energy shortage has pushed up the inflation level of American and European economies, and the Federal Reserve plans to raise interest rates and shrink the table. Previously, asset prices and valuations continued to rise, benefiting from loose liquidity in the context of the epidemic. Now, under inflation expectations, the market is more sensitive to these assets, and the prices naturally fluctuate sharply.
Taking A-Shares as an example, Wang Jing further analyzed that growth stocks rebounded against the trend last week under the background of fluctuations in the peripheral market. On the one hand, favorable policies such as “counting from the east to the west” have driven the rise of computer, communication and other sectors; On the other hand, new energy and semiconductor racetracks were boosted by fundamentals such as industry demand data and better than expected enterprise performance, and the funds returned to some extent. The underlying reason why these sectors can withstand the impact of external market fluctuations is that the “scissors gap” between the growth and value style of A-Shares since this year is large, and the short-term repair is reasonable.
“In fact, A-Shares have shown signs of rebound recently, and external factors have only interfered with the repair rhythm of a shares. With the gradual strengthening of the expectation of” steady growth “of the economy and combined with the current overall valuation level, there is little room for A-Shares to continue to fall sharply, but the repair rise process will not be smooth, and more patience is needed at present.” Cinda Australia Bank Fund said.
China Merchants Fund said that the current position does not need to be pessimistic about the short-term fluctuations of a shares. It is expected that the market will gradually heat up after March. At present, the core of risk preference is the rhythm change of wide credit. Local debt and real estate, as the leading factors of wide credit, are important observation points. Under the trend of “steady growth”, infrastructure, as an important starting point, will continue to work. The Chinese market still needs to continue to absorb the impact of monetary policy expectations of overseas economies. With the weakening of US economic data and the peak of inflation, the expectation of interest rate hike is also expected to peak in the first quarter. In March, the impact of overseas liquidity expectation will tend to weaken. With the gradual emergence of positive factors, the market is expected to gradually pick up.
high popularity of safe haven assets
Under the fluctuation of equity market, the performance of hedging assets is very different.
China Southern Fund pointed out that under the influence of the geographical situation, the current market transactions show an obvious “risk aversion” feature. For example, the market is worried about the supply of commodities such as crude oil, which has led to the rise of relevant commodity prices, further pushing up overseas inflationary pressure. In addition, the US dollar index has strengthened, the pressure of capital outflow from the non US market has increased, and gold, as a safe haven asset, has benefited relatively.
The oil theme fund performed well. Data show that seven crude oil funds rose last week, harvest crude oil fund rose by more than 6%, e fund crude oil a, China Southern crude oil a and other products rose by more than 3%, and Warburg S & P oil and gas theme fund rose by more than 1%. For a long time, as of February 25, the yields of harvest crude oil fund, e-fonda crude oil a RMB, southern crude oil a, GF Dow Jones American oil and other products have exceeded 20%, ranking in the first camp of theme funds with the highest performance this year.
Qianhai open source Fund said that from a medium-term perspective, the development of the geographical situation may restrict the trade of crude oil and non-ferrous metals, and the short-term high-risk premium of relevant subjects will continue to the medium-term dimension; The short-term rise in crude oil prices may continue to raise inflation expectations.
Song Qing, general manager of the International Business Department of noan fund and fund manager of noan oil and gas energy fund, analyzed to the reporter of China Securities Journal that in 2022, with the gradual recovery of global social activities and the gradual recovery of economy, the side effect of the Central Bank of important economies on significantly releasing liquidity began to appear, and the price of bulk commodities began to rise, Inflation in developed economies in Europe and the United States began to heat up. In this context, investors’ concern that the supply side of crude oil may not keep up with the demand side began to ferment, and funds continued to flow into the spot market to hoard spot, leading to the rise of spot prices.
The performance of resource theme funds such as gold and jewelry is also commendable. Data show that with the rise of precious metal prices, especially spot gold once stood at the $1970 / ounce mark last week, the net value of theme funds performed positively. As of February 25, the net value of Qianhai Kaiyuan gold, silver and jewelry a has increased by more than 10% this year, the theme a of ChuangJin Hexin resources has increased by more than 7%, and the dollar of e fund gold theme a has increased by 5%. The net value growth rate of e fund resources industry, Penghua Guozheng non ferrous metals industry ETF, noan global gold and other products exceeded 3%.
Li Bei (pseudonym), a public offering investment researcher, told the China Securities Journal that the geographical situation is the direct reason for the recent strength of precious metal themed products. In the current situation is not yet clear, gold and other precious metals still have investment opportunities. However, the price of such assets is easy to fluctuate sharply with the change of geographical situation, and the investment needs to focus on the long-term logic.
Qianhai open source Fund pointed out that under the demand for hedging, the warming of short-term hedging sentiment will continue to push up the US dollar index, and traditional hedging assets such as gold may continue to benefit. In the medium term, the support of risk aversion to the US dollar index cannot be sustained, and the trend of the Fed’s monetary policy is still the main logic of the medium-term trend of the US dollar index. In terms of gold price, the uncertainty of risk evolution may lead to the rise of gold price. In the medium term, the tightening monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will push up the yield of US bonds, which may continue to suppress the price of gold.
“steady income” fund favored
The risk appetite of Jimin has also changed significantly, and they are adjusting their investment strategies according to their own conditions. Under the appeal of “steady income”, many funders turned to “solid income +” and other “steady income” funds.
In the context of intensified market volatility, the equity fund held by Shenzhen Jimin Chen Xiaohua (pseudonym) has suffered continuous losses recently.
Chen Xiaohua, a financial practitioner, told the China Securities Journal that after the Spring Festival holiday, he originally wanted to use the year-end bonus to buy some equity funds. But recently, the market continues to adjust and dare not increase positions for a long time. “Especially after seeing the sharp fluctuations in the market last week, I feel that the investment return expectation should be appropriately reduced in 2022. Next, after the market is slightly stable, I will consider configuring some funds with ‘steady return’ attribute.”
“Year-end bonus money has been worrying me since the Spring Festival holiday. Not only has the new energy track been turned off, but also other Baijiu, medicine and other tracks have been delayed. Chen Bin (pseudonym), who works in Qianhai, Shenzhen, told the China Securities Journal that after some trade-offs and comparisons, he recently bought a “fixed income +” fund with part of the year-end bonus. The highest equity investment proportion of this fund is no more than 30%. The return rate since its establishment in July 2021 is about 5%. At present, the scale is more than 1 billion yuan, and the investment strategy has great flexibility.
Chen Bin specifically mentioned one detail. The “fixed income +” fund he bought has a holding period of 9 months. He said that the reason why he chose to hold funds is to restrict his trading impulse in this way. “Long-term holding good funds is an important foundation for investment profits. In 2021 Baijiu and medicine and other track fund continued to lose money, and personal investment sentiment will inevitably be affected, so this time chose a holding period fund.”
Compared with Chen Bin, Lu Feng (a pseudonym), who works in a wealth management organization, appears to be “calm” a lot. Different from most Jimin, Lu Feng’s fund investment has significant characteristics of “personal asset allocation”. “My personal assets are divided into several parts, namely stocks, funds, insurance and cash. Since 2021, fund investment has basically been in balance, Baijiu pharmaceutical fund has seen a big loss. Fortunately, the fund of science and technology has achieved a certain increase. Since 2022, the market volatility has further intensified, and my risk appetite has also dropped. Jin kept still, took some cash and bought some ‘fixed income +’ and fund in fund (fof) products. In the current market environment, in addition to updating some short-term insurance, I prefer to hold stable income assets. In addition to fof and ‘fixed income +’, I may configure some pure debt funds next. ” Lu Feng told the China Securities Journal.
Lu Feng said that he was originally an investor and gradually transferred the capital allocation to the fund in recent years. “In my personal experience, retail investors can’t make a lot of money by investing in stocks. It’s just that some people don’t want to admit it or remember only a few occasional profits. Now, I prefer to participate in investment through funds.”
“I usually pay close attention to the market dynamics and the prediction of fund managers. From the current situation, I feel that the geographical situation will not have a decisive impact on the A-share market. After some factors are digested, the market will still return to its own track.” Lu Feng said.
