The latest strategic views of the top ten securities companies are fresh, as follows:
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the peak of geo impact has passed, and the “three bottoms” confirm the balanced configuration
The high point of geo risk impact may have passed, and the risk disturbance is mainly reflected in the emotional level. March will enter the preliminary effect observation period of stable growth policy. It is expected that the follow-up policies will continue to increase and enter the centralized development period. The “three bottoms” of A-Shares have been confirmed in turn. It is suggested to maintain a high position, stick to the main line of stable growth, and adhere to the balanced allocation of industry and style, Layout around “two low positions”. First of all, the peak impact of geopolitical risks on the global market may have passed, the possibility of further proliferation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is relatively low, and the disturbance impact is expected to weaken. Secondly, the resumption of six geopolitical conflicts in history shows that the geopolitical conflict does not change the medium-term trend of China US stock market, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not expected to change the medium-term trend of A-share improvement and medium-term adjustment of US stock market. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25bps in March, which is lower than the previous expectation. Thirdly, in March, the national “two sessions” are expected to further strengthen the expectation of stable growth policy and clarify the annual GDP growth target of 5.5%. The policy will continue to increase and enter the centralized development period. Finally, the “three bottoms” of A-Shares have been confirmed in turn. The high point of external impact disturbance may have passed, and the internal fundamentals are expected to enter the repair channel with the support of policies.
Closely follow the main line of steady growth, adhere to the balanced allocation of industries and styles, and focus on the layout of “two low positions”. We still emphasize adhering to the annual blue chip style. At present, we still need to keep close to the main line of steady growth. Compared with the previous main line, this main line focuses more on traditional industries with undervalued value. After the policy diffusion, it is expected that the main line will be more diversified and the style of value and growth in the main line of steady growth will be more balanced. It is suggested to adhere to the balanced allocation of the two dimensions of industry and style, and actively layout around the “two low positions”. Specifically include: varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be relatively low, focusing on midstream manufacturing suppressed by cost problems in the early stage, such as automobiles and parts, photovoltaic wind power equipment, etc., and airlines and hotels whose fundamentals are expected to be still low; For the varieties with relatively low valuation, it is recommended to pay attention to the high-quality developers, building materials and household enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, communication operators with significantly improved cash flow, smart grids and energy storage in the field of new infrastructure, data centers and cloud infrastructure benefiting from “East data and West computing”, and Internet leaders driven by the content of Hong Kong stocks after the decline of some leaders, And fine chemical enterprises with the ability to develop new businesses such as new materials.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : grow first under balance
Looking forward to March, on the one hand, under the background that the impact of the tense situation in Russia and Ukraine on A-share risk appetite has come to an end and the convening of the national two sessions will help the market unify its expectations of economy and policy strength, A-share risk appetite is expected to continue to pick up. But on the other hand, we need to be vigilant against the short-term constraints on the formation of A-Shares by the Fed’s interest rate hike. Therefore, under the “wrist breaking” of the two forces, the market volatility may further increase. It is suggested to maintain a balanced allocation, but the position is gradually inclined to the growth style and actively participate in the market in the third stage of growth.
In March, the overall idea of allocation is balanced, right and growth first. On the whole, it can be configured around three main lines. Main line 1: actively participate in the market in the third stage of growth. Pay attention to the growth main line represented by double carbon and semiconductor and the communication, computer and military industry under the growth diffusion; Main line 2: under steady growth, the economic data in March is expected to exceed expectations. Under the expected difference, we can gradually layout new and old infrastructure fields such as building materials, building decoration, urban pipe network transformation and new power grid construction, as well as relevant opportunities such as real estate and banking; Main line 3: in terms of consumption, in the short term, we will continue to pay attention to the travel chain of airport, tourism, catering, leisure and other services catalyzed by the rescue policy, as well as the concept of pharmaceutical cro, which benefits from the approval of Pfizer covid-19 drugs and is expected to pick up the performance under new orders; In the medium and long term, we will continue to pay attention to the price rise opportunities of consumer goods such as dairy products and planting industry with price rise as the main line; In terms of theme, we will continue to pay attention to opportunities related to the digital economy and the reform of state-owned enterprises.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : “emotional bottom” is gradually confirmed, and the style is more balanced
Historical Shanghai outlying risks will affect China’s stock market in the short term and remain limited in the medium term. We believe that the impact of this round of medium-term uncertainty is that if the situation continues to escalate, it may exacerbate the premium of resource supply and have an adverse impact on overseas inflation and monetary policy.
Looking ahead to the future, we recently stressed that the first half of this year experienced a “policy bottom, sentiment bottom and growth bottom” in turn. At present, the policy bottom has been relatively clear. The higher than expected credit social finance data in January further confirmed the “policy bottom”. If the geography and epidemic situation no longer exceed the expected period, the “sentiment bottom” is expected to be gradually confirmed, and the subsequent steady growth policy will be gradually implemented, The “bottom of growth” may also gradually appear from the first quarter to the second quarter, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the big market in the follow-up. From the perspective of structure, we believe that the risks of growth stocks have been released in the early sharp correction, and are gradually entering the stage of “bargain hunting”; The “steady growth” sector fluctuates more, but there may still be room for performance in the future. On the whole, compared with the “stable growth” in the early stage, the market style is likely to gradually transition to a relatively balanced stage.
At present, we pay attention to three directions: 1) potential support areas for policy development, including infrastructure, real estate, stable demand related industrial chains (building materials, construction, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.), brokerage finance, etc; 2) For the middle and lower reaches consumption that has been adjusted in 2021, the valuation is not high and the medium and long-term prospects are still clear, choose stocks from the bottom up, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, the Internet, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc; 3) Manufacturing growth sectors, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, have released risks, and may enter the bargain hunting stage in the future.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) : improve profits and resist risk disturbance
Under the influence of external events, inflation is disturbed and risk assets are gradually desensitized. In terms of style, the undervalued sector is still dominant. We should focus on the direction of impaired early profits and marginal improvement power, grasp steady growth and layout consumption.
Industry configuration: focus on the direction of early profit impairment and marginal improvement power, and look for the intersection of undervalued value and profit improvement. Recommendations: Infrastructure / consumption / Finance / consumer electronics, etc.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the disturbance is gradually gone, and the market is just at that time in spring
Historical data show that the impact of regional conflict on the stock market is relatively short. With reference to 14 years, the impact of Russia Ukraine conflict on the stock market may gradually disappear. The market fell at the beginning of the year due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the disturbance of the expectation of interest rate increase in the United States. The disturbance dissipated, and the spring market with steady growth was just at that time. The market style is moving from value led to growth led, such as photovoltaic wind power in low-carbon economy and cloud computing data center in digital economy.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : growth oversold rebound is in sight
In terms of the outlook of the A-share market in spring, the growth oversold rebound is just around the corner.
In the first 30 trading days of the credit pulse, the market fell as a whole, the steady growth direction performed better, and the undervalued value was relatively resistant to decline. 60 trading days after the credit pulse, the market rose as a whole. Generally, the growth of medium and small cap is dominant or the style is relatively balanced.
Specific details of short-term style change: Finance / cycle / value first, and then growth. For a period of time after the date of data release, the market is often dominated by finance, cycle and value (in most cases, it continues the previous style trend); The inflection point is about 10 trading days after the date of data release. After that, the growth style will rebound (12 years, 14 years, 16 years) or even dominate the trend (19 years, 20 years).
Which companies can still win after the growth rate slows down—— After deceleration, the growth rate shall be greater than 30%, and the deceleration range shall not exceed 50%. According to this screening, in the growth direction, focus on: smart cars, components and inverters, semiconductor equipment and materials, batteries and lithium battery equipment, financial it and industrial Internet.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : geo risk enhancement “careful thinking and practice”
The A-share year of the tiger started off well and rebounded, encountering geopolitical risks from Russia and Ukraine. Geopolitical risk will not dominate the stock market trend, but will accelerate the weak market that has not yet formed a consensus. If the situation in Russia and Ukraine eases in stages, it will provide a good opportunity to control portfolio risks. Russia Ukraine geopolitical risks strengthen the “supply and demand gap” of global resources / raw materials. We transfer it into the combination to maintain the balanced allocation of high region and low region: (1) resources / materials benefiting from the inflation logic of “supply and demand gap” (coal / aluminum / potassium fertilizer); (2) Intersection of “steady growth” and “double carbon new cycle” in low-lying areas (real estate / building materials / coal chemical industry); (3) Technology track stocks gradually agreed by PEG (new energy vehicle / wind power photovoltaic / digital economy).
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : repeated grinding makes the bottom more solid, and the layout of three main lines
Affected by geopolitical emergencies, investors’ risk appetite decreased, resulting in increased volatility of global assets. Given that China has a complete industrial chain and little inflation pressure in China, RMB assets have been given the attribute of risk aversion. It is expected that the disturbance of overseas risk events to the A-share market is relatively short. The following two sessions will be held, and it is expected that the steady growth policy will still be intensively implemented, and A-Shares are still in the policy dividend period; In addition, A-share enterprises have successively entered the disclosure period of the first quarterly report of the annual report, and the sectors with high profit growth and business reversal will become the main line.
In terms of allocation, there are three main investment lines: first, the allocation varieties of “stable growth” policy, such as “bank, real estate, building materials and construction”; Second, “food and beverage, breeding, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) “, etc. expected to benefit from price increase (price increase); Third, the theme of benefiting from the promotion of policies (support), “new energy (vehicles), digital economy, East West calculation, agriculture, rural areas and farmers”, etc.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : from defensive to offensive stage, A-Shares may usher in a small and medium-sized growth moment
“Worry free inside and trouble free outside”, when changing from defense to attack. 1) Overseas, the expectation of raising interest rates is fully priced, the impact of shrinking the table may be relatively mild, and the trend of strong performance supporting the stabilization and recovery of US stocks is becoming increasingly clear; 2) In China, the short-term annual report shows a relatively stable trend. The first quarter report may be differentiated, the upstream fell month on month, the gross profit of the middle and downstream improved, and the boom track such as new energy maintained a high boom. Credit has gradually stabilized and rebounded, the trend of wide credit is expected to continue, and the credit structure will continue to be optimized. The current market sentiment is still at a relatively low point, so we can be more optimistic.
Under the defensive idea, the undervalued value is preferred, but in the subsequent context of “worry free inside and trouble free outside”, when A-Shares change from defensive to offensive, the undervalued value sector is difficult to have relative returns, even the infrastructure sector with stable growth attribute. The inflection point of the growth curve of the new energy sector is still difficult to see in the short term, and the medium and long-term logic is difficult to prove. The sector continues to adjust under the current negative capital feedback, and may usher in a deterministic recovery after the landing of performance uncertainty.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: Russia Ukraine crisis pushes up global inflation, China waits for the policies of the two sessions
Generally speaking, there are many variables in the follow-up of the Russia Ukraine conflict and NATO sanctions, but the market is still in a favorable window period. With the approaching of the two sessions, the stable growth of the infrastructure chain has begun to be realized gradually. Subsequently, with the cooling of the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike in March and the return of China’s long-end treasury bond yield, the environment of the growth sector has improved, and we are optimistic about the power semiconductors and photovoltaic with high prosperity, CXO with expected marginal improvement, while paying attention to the aluminum and crude oil chain benefiting from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, thermal power benefiting from the downward coal price, digital economy supported by policies, etc.
In the medium term, A-Shares will still face four major challenges: the downward pressure on performance brought by the economic bottoming period, the rhythm and intensity of policies, the interest rate increase cycle of the Federal Reserve, and the China policy of the US mid-term election year. Take the lead in configuration: grasp the “three low and one change” (low undervalued value and low congestion, with fundamental marginal improvement expectation), make high dividends as the bottom position, counter cyclical upward industry as the main force, and make the theme of marginal improvement of low distribution industry.
