Despite a huge loss of more than 13.3 billion yuan, the record of investor relations activities released by Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) february 27 showed that 441 foreign institutional investors participated in a roadshow of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) .
As for the pig price, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) said that it is optimistic that the pig price may enter the upward channel of the next cycle after the third quarter of 2022; It is pessimistic to estimate that 2022 is still at the social average breakeven line, and it may not enter the upward channel of the next cycle until 2023.
survey of 441 institutional investors
On February 23, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) released the performance express for 2021. During the reporting period, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 64.963 billion yuan, a total profit of -13.083 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of -13.337 billion yuan.
Although the huge loss of more than 13.3 billion yuan hit the worst performance since the listing, investors' interest in Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) has not weakened.
At the investor face-to-face roadshow (online) on February 24, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 441 Chinese and foreign institutional investors investigated Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) including e fund, GF fund, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities, GIC (Singapore Government Investment Corporation), J.P. Morgan and other well-known institutions.
Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) introduces that in 2022, the company's annual comprehensive cost of raising pigs (including other profits and losses such as eliminating sows) is 8-8.5 yuan / kg, and the company's expected target of marketing volume in 2022 is about 18 million. The company's existing pig farm has a completed production capacity of about 46 million. In the long run, the company's primary plan is to gradually increase the output and achieve the maximum and full production.
In 2022, the overall complete cost target of wool chicken will be reduced to 6.1 yuan / kg. Continue to make efforts to transform and upgrade the poultry industry, develop fresh and cooked products, and continue to extend the industrial chain. It is preliminarily planned to sell nearly 200 million fresh products in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than 30%; About 20 million cooked foods, an increase of about 40% year-on-year.
Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) said that generally speaking, according to the capital stress test, the company is currently in a safe and stable state. If the current low pig price continues, the company also has sufficient confidence and confidence to successfully pass the bottom of this round of pig cycle. If the follow-up market is good and the capital is abundant, the company will continue to increase the stock of some fertile sows to meet the needs of future development.
optimistic estimation: pig price will enter the upward channel after the third quarter
For this year's pig price, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) said that the recent pig price is low, and the industry is in the stage of general loss and capacity removal. From the supply side, some of the production capacity has been removed, but the duration is short, and the production capacity has not been completely cleared. At present, it is in the process of oscillation at the bottom of the cycle. According to the national breeding sow stock data released by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the current stock is still higher than the normal level, and the deregulation of pig production capacity will continue. The future market trend mainly depends on the length and depth of deregulation of production capacity. From the demand side, according to the experience of previous years, the traditional off-season for pork consumption is generally after the Spring Festival. It is preliminarily estimated that the pig price will remain at a low position in the first half of 2022, and the de industrialization of industrial capacity will accelerate. It is optimistically estimated that after the third quarter of 2022, pig prices may enter the upward channel of the next cycle; It is pessimistic to estimate that 2022 is still at the social average breakeven line, and it may take 2023 to enter the upward channel of the next cycle.
For this year's yellow feather broiler market, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) believes that in 2020, the chicken industry suffered from covid-19 pneumonia and overcapacity caused by a large increase in production capacity in 2019, resulting in serious losses in the industry and some de production capacity. In the second quarter and the third quarter of 2021, the chicken price was low, and the deregulation of industrial capacity accelerated. The price of yellow feather chicken has performed well recently. It is expected that the chicken industry will have normal and reasonable income in 2022.
Institution: the downward space of pig price is very limited
In addition to Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , many companies in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector suffered losses or decreased performance in 2021 Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) performance forecast shows that the company expects a loss of 18.2-19.7 billion yuan in 2021 Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) performance forecast shows that the company's net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 36.54% in 2021.
However, the institution is relatively optimistic about the future market of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery.
East Asia Qianhai Securities said that the current trend of agricultural upgrading is obvious, and each segment is expected to usher in a configuration period in which "cycle" and "growth" resonate in the recovery stage. It can be arranged around three main lines: the pig breeding industry affected by "covid-19 epidemic situation" and "non epidemic situation"; The epidemic has impacted the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply chain, and the rising grain prices have driven the booming seed industry; The supply side epidemic has led to the rise of labor and transportation costs, the difficulty of circulation on the demand side and the reduction of demand on the catering B side.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) said that the pig price is in the process of the second bottom of the "W bottom". At present, the downward space of the pig price is very limited, and the valuation of the sector, especially the leader, is still at the bottom, with sufficient margin of safety; The fundamentals of the yellow feather broiler industry have maintained an upward trend after the continuous elimination of production capacity. With the withdrawal of small and medium-sized production capacity, the industry concentration has further improved, and the investment opportunities of the Yellow Feather Broiler sector continue to be optimistic; In terms of seed industry, the revision of Seed Law and the promotion of transgenic commercialization will promote the improvement of industry concentration and the expansion of market space, and continue to be optimistic about the growth of leading enterprises; In terms of feed, the recovery of pig production capacity will continue to support the feed sales in the first half of the year, and pay attention to the price of feed raw materials in the second half of the year; In terms of dynamic insurance, it is in the period of industry reform. With the improvement of industry concentration, the advantages of leading enterprises will be gradually clear; Be optimistic about the consumption and growth attributes of pet track.
