Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the peak of geographical impact has passed, and the “three bottoms” of A-Shares have been confirmed in turn! Layout around “two low positions”
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the high point of geo risk impact may have passed, and the risk disturbance is mainly reflected in the emotional level. March will enter the preliminary effect observation period of stable growth policy, and it is expected that the follow-up policies will continue to increase and enter the centralized development period. The “three bottoms” of A-Shares have been confirmed in turn, and it is suggested to maintain a high position and stick to the main line of stable growth, Adhere to the balanced allocation of the two dimensions of industry and style, and focus on the layout of “two low positions”.
First of all, the peak impact of geopolitical risks on the global market may have passed, the possibility of further proliferation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is relatively low, and the disturbance impact is expected to weaken. Secondly, the resumption of six geopolitical conflicts in history shows that the geopolitical conflict does not change the medium-term trend of China US stock market, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not expected to change the medium-term trend of A-share improvement and medium-term adjustment of US stock market. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25bps in March, which is lower than the previous expectation. Thirdly, in March, the national “two sessions” are expected to further strengthen the expectation of stable growth policy and clarify the annual GDP growth target of 5.5%. The policy will continue to increase and enter the centralized development period. Finally, the “three bottoms” of A-Shares have been confirmed in turn. The high point of external impact disturbance may have passed, and the internal fundamentals are expected to enter the repair channel with the support of policies.
it is suggested to adhere to the balanced allocation of industry and style, and actively layout around the “two low positions”. Specifically include: varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be relatively low, focusing on midstream manufacturing suppressed by cost problems in the early stage, such as automobiles and parts, photovoltaic wind power equipment, etc., and airlines and hotels whose fundamentals are expected to be still low; For the varieties with relatively low valuation, it is recommended to pay attention to the high-quality developers, building materials and household enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, communication operators with significantly improved cash flow, smart grids and energy storage in the field of new infrastructure, data centers and cloud infrastructure benefiting from “East data and West computing”, and Internet leaders driven by the content of Hong Kong stocks after the decline of some leaders, And fine chemical enterprises with the ability to develop new businesses such as new materials
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: undervalued value is still dominant, grasp steady growth and layout consumption
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that under the influence of external events, inflation is disturbed and risk assets are gradually desensitized. In terms of style, the undervalued sector is still dominant. We should focus on the direction of impaired early profits and marginal improvement power, grasp steady growth and layout consumption.
Affected by peripheral events such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the market fluctuated and fell this week, and the Shanghai index closed down 1.13%, showing a structural rebalancing at the style level. In the short term, under the background that the downward pressure on earnings has not been alleviated and the inflection point of global liquidity has arrived, risk appetite has become the main disturbance factor of the market. As for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, first, it affects the risk appetite, and the current risk aversion is dominant; Second, by affecting the supply of energy and other commodities, it will raise global inflation expectations. From a medium-term perspective, China’s economic recovery is still the core. Considering the marginal relaxation in the real estate sector (the proportion of down payment, the relaxation of purchase and loan restrictions), the expectation of wide credit will rise again, and the driving of credit cycle → profit cycle will boost the steady growth market.
industry configuration: focus on the direction with impaired early profits and marginal improvement power, and look for the intersection of undervalued value and profit improvement. Recommendations: Infrastructure / consumption / Finance / consumer electronics, etc
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : the “emotional bottom” of A-Shares is expected to be gradually confirmed
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that looking forward to the future, the policy bottom has been relatively clear. The higher than expected credit social finance data in January further confirmed the “policy bottom”. If the geography and epidemic situation no longer exceed the expectations, the “emotional bottom” is expected to be gradually confirmed. Later, with the gradual implementation of the steady growth policy, the “growth bottom” may also gradually appear from the first quarter to the second quarter, There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the market. In terms of structure, the risk of growth stocks has been released in the early sharp correction, and they are gradually entering the stage of “bargain hunting”; The “steady growth” sector fluctuates more, but there may still be room for performance in the future. On the whole, compared with the “stable growth” in the early stage, the market style is likely to gradually transition to a relatively balanced stage.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the disturbance is fading away, which is a good time to layout the market in spring
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine had escalated significantly recently. On February 24, the stock markets at home and abroad fell sharply. On that day, the CSI 300 index hit a new low in the past year, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 3400 points. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has significantly affected investors’ risk appetite in the short term, but we think this impact will gradually dissipate. At present, it is a good time to layout the market in spring.
Historical data show that the impact of regional conflict on the stock market is relatively short. With reference to 14 years, the impact of Russia Ukraine conflict on the stock market may gradually disappear. The market fell at the beginning of the year due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the disturbance of the expectation of interest rate increase in the United States. The disturbance dissipated, and the spring market with steady growth was just at that time. The market style is moving from value led to growth led, such as photovoltaic wind power in low-carbon economy and cloud computing data center in digital economy.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: the market is still in a favorable window period, and A-Shares will face four challenges
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities said that there are many variables in the follow-up of the Russian Ukrainian conflict and NATO sanctions, but the market is still in a favorable window period. With the approaching of the two sessions, the stable growth of the infrastructure chain has begun to be realized gradually. Subsequently, with the cooling of the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates in March and the decline of the yield of China’s long-end treasury bonds, the environment of the growth sector has improved, and it is optimistic about the high prosperity power semiconductors Photovoltaic, CXO with expected marginal improvement, etc., while paying attention to the aluminum and crude oil chain benefiting from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, thermal power benefiting from the downward coal price, digital economy supported by policies, etc.
In the medium term, A-Shares will still face four major challenges: the downward pressure on performance brought by the economic bottoming period, the rhythm and intensity of policies, the interest rate increase cycle of the Federal Reserve, and the China policy of the US mid-term election year. Take the lead in configuration: grasp the “three low and one change” (low undervalued value and low congestion, with fundamental marginal improvement expectation), make high dividends as the bottom position, counter cyclical upward industry as the main force, and make the theme of marginal improvement of low distribution industry.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : the market has ushered in phased repair, and March is still an important observation window
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that the market ushered in phased repair. With the Fed’s interest rate hike, the market congestion of the main ETF sector has been alleviated in advance, leading the market to some extent.
However, the probability of “V-shaped” reversal in the short term is small, and March is still an important observation window. 1. The Fed raised interest rates and the trend of US bond interest rates. 2. On the Chinese side, the two sessions will also be held on March 4. 3. In the middle and late March, on the one hand, the prosperity indicators of popular tracks, such as the sales volume of new energy vehicles and the prospect of the first quarterly report, will be released one after another. On the other hand, China’s economic and financial data from January to February will also be released, which will become an important basis for the market to judge the effect of “steady growth” in the early stage and predict the rhythm and strength of follow-up policies. 4. The progress of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the price trend of bulk commodities such as oil prices.
Investment strategy: in the short term, first, find the target that meets the characteristics of “small high-tech” from bottom to top in the adjusted medicine, computer and “new semi army”; Second, oil, petrochemicals and other bulk resource products that are expected to increase in price under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine; Third, under the “steady growth”, the undervalued value of financial, real estate and other sectors was repaired. In the long term, we will continue to focus on the five major directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : repeated grinding makes the bottom more solid, and the bargain hunting layout of three main lines
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that due to geographical emergencies, investors’ risk appetite decreased, resulting in increased global asset volatility. Given that China has a complete industrial chain and little inflation pressure in China, RMB assets have been given the attribute of risk aversion. It is expected that the disturbance of overseas risk events to the A-share market is relatively short. The following two sessions will be held, and it is expected that the steady growth policy will still be intensively implemented, and A-Shares are still in the policy dividend period; In addition, A-share enterprises have successively entered the disclosure period of the first quarterly report of the annual report, and the sectors with high profit growth and business reversal will become the main line.
In terms of allocation, there are three main investment lines: first, the allocation varieties of “stable growth” policy, such as “bank, real estate, building materials and construction”; Second, “food and beverage, breeding, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) “, etc. expected to benefit from price increase (price increase); Third, the theme of benefiting from the promotion of policies (support), “new energy (vehicles), digital economy, East West calculation, agriculture, rural areas and farmers”, etc.
Guosheng Securities: when the decision is not reached in the short term, the market continues in the lunar year, and the balanced rebound is expected to continue
Guosheng Securities believes that the core feature of the recent market is that the style is heavy and the main line is unclear. With the commencement and resumption of production in the peak season approaching, the landing effect of stable growth in the early stage is about to usher in an important observation period. The next 1-2 months will be an important decision-making window for a shares. We will deduce two scenarios of the medium-term trend of the market.
Resume the capital market performance during the four typical geographical conflicts since the 21st century, and the local war is not a variable to determine the market trend. Moreover, in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, foreign capital only flowed out slightly, and the RMB reached a new high since mid-2018. Therefore, even if the situation between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, it will not have a greater negative impact on a shares. From a short-term perspective, between now and the two sessions, it is in a window period with good odds and odds. The market in the lunar year is expected to continue. The trading bottom of the high boom track may have appeared, and the style probability is balanced; However, in the medium-term dimension, the trend of accelerating the entry of incremental funds into the market and the downward trend of global interest rates has shifted, and the simple boom chasing strategy may fail. As far as the current situation is concerned, we are still in the macro combination of weak economy and low credit. The further trend in the future needs to wait for subsequent decisions. However, in any case, it is necessary to increase the allocation of relatively low positions and undervalued sectors.
(I) recommendation of high-quality building materials industry and confirmation of high-quality building materials industry credit policy: (I) promotion of high-quality building materials industry and banks; （2） The market sentiment is repaired from the bottom, and the computer catalyzed by the concept of communication and digital economy in the direction of new infrastructure development is recommended; （3） Household appliances with relatively low valuation in the real estate cycle and tourism trips with the concept of dilemma reversal.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) : geo risk is bad or not exhausted, it is recommended to pay appropriate attention to bottom opportunities
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that this week, the A-share market was affected by the escalating geopolitical risks and had a large shock, with a deep correction on Tuesday and Thursday. Some funds believe that the geopolitical crisis triggered short-term fluctuations in market sentiment. Russia and Ukraine launched a war and smashed a “golden pit”. They accelerated the admission of “bottom reading” on Friday, and the market trading was active, driving the recovery of several A-share sectors.
At present, the A-share market is not able to take action as a whole, or will continue to fluctuate under the background of lower profits driven by China’s economic downturn and increased overseas uncertainty. The recovery of market sentiment on Friday was partly boosted by the news that “Russia and Ukraine are expected to negotiate”. However, at present, the negotiations have miscarried again, the sanctions have started, the overseas epidemic is still erupting, and the Chinese epidemic is resurgent. The overall market sentiment may be impacted again, especially the sanctions on international settlement may affect the trade settlement of China’s import and export to Russia, In order to impact the business development and capital flow of China’s import and export enterprises, we must be vigilant against the resulting impact and risks. At the same time, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Structural opportunities still exist. It is suggested to focus on the bottom opportunities in the adjustment in combination with the macro policy trend, industrial logic, defense capability, valuation level of different style sectors and expected repair logic. At the same time, it is again emphasized to closely follow the marginal changes of overseas situation and remain relatively cautious.
In the medium and long term, we suggest investors continue to focus on three directions. Consumption sector: medicine and consumption upgrading. Long term high-quality track: carbon neutralization, scientific and technological innovation and new infrastructure. Stable bottom position variety: big finance.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : expected to rebound in growth stage in April
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said that looking forward to 2022, we believe that different from 2019 and 2021, we need to pay attention to the potential impact of some macro variables. On the one hand, China’s steady growth progress, on the other hand, the rhythm of the Fed’s interest rate hike and the fluctuation of us stocks. In this context, we propose the “three low” allocation strategy, that is, taking the “three low” (undervalued value, low stock price and low position) as the anchor to explore the “double long” (steady growth and new growth), and the current market characteristics of stock game deduce or show the seesaw effect.
Looking forward to the second quarter, we expect the rebound window of growth stocks to be from late March to April. The reasons are as follows: first, from a macro perspective, April is the marginal mitigation window of the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates; Second, from a meso perspective, the successive disclosure of the first quarter forecast in 2022 is expected to boost market sentiment. Among them, in addition to the oversold rebound of track stocks, the new growth focuses on automotive electronics, semiconductor materials and simulation design, specialization and innovation, etc.
