Affected by the sudden change in the international situation, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell into shock adjustment again today (February 28). The three major A-share indexes opened low across the board. After rapidly rising at the beginning of the session, they dived back. Then the stock index kept jumping up and down near the closing point of last Friday, with a clear view of the situation of repeated shocks. From the disk, grandma Jin and Uncle Li have shown their skills, the oil and medical sectors have become “sweet pastries”, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the high point of the geo risk impact may have passed, and the risk disturbance is mainly reflected in the emotional level. March will enter the preliminary effect observation period of the steady growth policy, and it is expected that the follow-up policies will continue to increase and enter the centralized development period. The “three bottoms” of A-Shares have been confirmed in turn. It is suggested to maintain a high position and stick to the main line of steady growth, Adhere to the balanced allocation of the two dimensions of industry and style, and focus on the layout of “two low positions”.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[Theme 2] golden concept
East Asia Qianhai securities mentioned that the overseas epidemic and geopolitical conflict intensified, economic uncertainty increased, and gold prices were supported. In the context of the continuous spread of the global epidemic, the uncertainty of the future economic situation still exists. On the other hand, geopolitical conflicts such as the Ukrainian issue continue to appear, which exacerbates the volatility of the global market. Therefore, the global economic uncertainty increases and the gold price is ready to go.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) futures believes that, based on the existing understanding of the precious metal pricing framework, we believe that the event type impulse hedging demand will cause a short-term rise in the gold price, but whether it can form a trend impact needs to see two driving points: first, the further escalation of hedging events; Or, second, the hedge drive resonates with the interest rate drive, which can also give gold better upward flexibility.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that there are local conflicts in the international situation, and there is a high probability that the short-term gold price trend will rise. Historically, the rise of gold price is conducive to the improvement of gross profit margin of gold jewelry sales, so as to stimulate the overall profitability of the industry. We have repeatedly stressed the view that we are optimistic about the gold and jewelry sub sector in 1h2022, and believe that the prosperity of gold and jewelry still has no obvious downward trend. In particular, various gold jewelry companies focusing on gold sales still have pulse opportunities in the short term. On the contrary, the demand for mass consumer goods still lacks long-term driving factors, the offline retail sector is still under pressure, and short-term suggestions are mainly on the sidelines. To sum up, we are most optimistic about the gold jewelry sector, and the valuation of gold jewelry companies is generally low and relatively safe.
[Theme 2] lithium extraction from Salt Lake
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) pointed out that in 2022 and 2023, the deterministic supply-demand gap of lithium ore will be greatly alleviated in 2024 and 2025. The sustainability of this round of supply-demand mismatch will exceed expectations and continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the lithium sector. Focus on the idea of “performance + growth”. Focus on companies with resources, processing capacity and growth in the future, such as leading companies Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng lithium industry, flexible targets Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , etc.
Logic 1: the supply cycle of lithium ore is 6-8 years on average, and the supply growth rate is slow. In the supply cycle of mines in Australia, the exploration and research stage needs to go through three stages: project feasibility study (DFS) and final investment decision (FID), with an average time of more than 5 years; After the feasibility study, the average time of mine design preparation, commissioning and approval is 1-2 years; The average time from mine production to production is 1-2 years; The average production cycle of the mine after shutdown is 2-5 years. Most of the mines to be developed in the world are in the DFS stage and are expected to be put into production in 24-26 years.
Logic 2: lithium battery industry chain expansion cycle mismatch. The price rise logic of silicon and lithium ore in 2021 is resumed, and the mismatch between supply and demand is the main reason. However, more than 80% of silicon production capacity is concentrated in China, and the average period of production expansion is 1.5 years. The release of production capacity in 2022 may stabilize the demand, the industry enters a new round of balance, and the high silicon price is difficult to sustain. 80% of lithium ore production capacity is concentrated abroad. The construction and operation cycle is 3-5 years on average, and the production progress may be less than expected. The release speed and difficulty of the supply side determine the difference between the follow-up trend of lithium ore and silicon material, and the lithium price is difficult to have a big inflection point in recent years.
Logic 3: high quality resources are scarce and the incremental scale is limited. Projects with a single production capacity of more than 50000 tons are very scarce. In the next 2-3 years, most of the new projects are small-scale and can really disturb the supply increment: talison phase 3, Yabao wodgina2, phase 3, sqm expansion and Manono The spot supply of lithium concentrate is tight, which is basically sold in the form of underwriting, and only a small part is sold in the form of loose orders.
In addition, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities believes that China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile has made a good start. In January, the production and sales volume reached 452000 and 431000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times respectively, continuing the high growth trend of last year. Under the condition that the downstream terminal demand continues to be hot, the lithium resources in the upstream of the industrial chain maintain a high boom, and the price of lithium salt continues to rise, breaking through the 400000 yuan / ton mark. The world’s leading lithium battery enterprises revealed that the shortage of lithium supply could not be solved in the short term, and the global lithium resource leader improved. The global lithium demand is expected to reach 1.5 million tons in 2025. LCE also alleviated the market’s concern about the sustainability of the prosperity of the lithium industry to a certain extent.
[Theme 3] oil and gas
Minsheng Securities said that geopolitics, the weakening influence of Omicron and the decline of crude oil inventories are the short-term catalytic factors leading to the recent rise in crude oil prices. Among them, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine affects the market’s expectation of the reduction of global crude oil supply: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has a long history. Recently, Russia and Ukraine have once again entered the tension on the edge of conflict. Due to Russia’s important position in the world crude oil market (according to OPEC world, Russia’s daily average crude oil production in 2021q4 is 10.8 million barrels / day, accounting for more than 10% of the world’s total output), the market is worried that Russia will be subject to economic export sanctions due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which will affect the supply of crude oil market. Among them, Russian crude oil exports account for about 42% – 45% of the output. If Russian crude oil exports are sanctioned, the impact on the supply of global crude oil market will be greater than 5%.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that the pattern of tight supply and demand fundamentals of crude oil continues, the geopolitical situation is changeable, and the short-term geopolitical risk premium of crude oil increases.
Over the years, affected by the epidemic and low oil price cycle, the global oil and gas exploration expenditure has remained low. We are firmly optimistic about the long-term prosperity of the oil and gas industry. In the follow-up, we will focus on the implementation of OPEC + production increase, the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, the progress of the negotiation of the Iranian nuclear agreement, the spread of Omikron strain, the progress of vaccination and the development of covid-19 specific drugs.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that the short-term oil price still needs to pay close attention to the situation in Russia and Ukraine and other geopolitical factors. If the export of Russian crude oil and natural gas is sanctioned and Iranian crude oil has not returned to the market, the global oil and gas may fall into a supply crisis, and the possibility of sharp rise in oil and gas prices cannot be ruled out. We maintain that the oil price center in 2022 will be significantly higher than the prediction in 2021. We are optimistic about the fundamental pattern of tight supply, which is expected to support Brent’s oil price to remain above $65 or even $70 / barrel in the next 2-3 years.
[Topic 4] covid-19 test
Great Wall Guorui Securities pointed out that the valuation is at the bottom of history and the current investment value of the pharmaceutical industry is prominent. It is suggested to increase the allocation proportion of the industry and pay attention to investment opportunities in six aspects: first, the performance disclosure of the annual report in 2021 and the first quarterly report in 2022 is imminent, and pay attention to the high-quality targets with high growth or higher than expected performance of the annual report and the first quarterly report; Second, with the official release of the 14th five year plan for the development of pharmaceutical industry, under the premise of controlling medical insurance expenses, innovation and internationalization will be the core main line of the industry in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to innovation driven companies and pharmaceutical enterprises with international ability; Third, the CXO industry. Recently, the CXO industry has undergone in-depth adjustment, and the valuation is at the bottom of history. Contrarian, focus on companies with sufficient orders and reasonable current valuation; Fourth, drugstore chain companies with reasonable valuation and stable recovery; Fifth, pay attention to the consumer medical section. Under the background of medical insurance fee control, the ophthalmology, medical beauty and other medical sub industries with consumption attribute have policy immunity, and the consumption upgrading will drive their development; Sixth, pay attention to the traditional Chinese medicine sector. The release of the guiding opinions on medical insurance supporting the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine shows the state’s determination to the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, which will play a positive role in the traditional Chinese medicine industry.
Guosheng Securities said that medicine has entered the medium and long-term layout range, and the medium and short term is still bottom-up, with more emphasis on the three factors of “performance valuation chips”. Up to now, the “double high problem” has been digested. Although there are many assets with unspeakable short-term valuation, extremely cheap and short-term concerns that are difficult to prove false, they have entered the allocation range in the medium and long term. In the short and medium term, in fact, there is no systematic solution. Recently, there have been problems in the chip structure of the whole market. Our idea is still to select individual stocks from bottom to top. There are three points to sum up: 1) select individual stocks with “fundamental common sense valuation oversold and discount”, in other words, they have fallen to the second-order derivative of the irrational valuation range. 2) The sub areas of “domestic demand policy immunity” and “foreign demand is relatively rigid” are selected to take into account the comprehensive and sudden impact of the current geopolitical environment and medical policy environment, especially the emotional impact. Such as adult class II vaccine, self-control, China covid-19 therapeutic drug industry chain, traditional Chinese medicine, rehabilitation, cdmo, etc. 3) Due to the high degree of chaos in stage trading, the chip factor should be fully considered when bottom reading.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that considering the background of the pharmaceutical industry, on the one hand, the uncertainty caused by the continuous implementation of the centralized procurement policy this year (centralized procurement of consumables, national procurement, alliance procurement, etc.), on the other hand, the short-term pharmaceutical industry sector has not seen clear favorable policies / changes, and there is no upward momentum in the short term. It is advisable to look at the quantity of scenery. The valuation of many pharmaceutical companies has reached a very reasonable range. The uncertainty of changes brought by policies makes many investors unable to start. We suggest the direction configuration of this year: Traditional Chinese medicine (policy friendly + undervalued value) + medical equipment (medical infrastructure) + scientific research reagents and upstream + other directions to find the target from bottom to top.
