Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities: the high outlook of the military industry is expected to continue at the current time point. It is suggested to configure "four dimensions"
After the occurrence of previous overseas wars, the performance of China's military stocks is not obvious. Since the establishment of the military industry index and CSI 300 index was relatively late, we chose Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) and Shanghai Composite Index to characterize the military industry sector and market. Through the statistics of the relative performance of military industry stocks before and after the five overseas wars from 1999 to 2011, we found that the relative return of military industry stocks was the most significant one week before the war (T-7), with a winning rate of 4 / 6, The winning rate continued to decline within one week after the war began. The winning rate on T + 1 day was 2 / 5, and the winning rates on T + 2 and T + 3 days were 1 / 5, indicating that the performance of military stocks was not ideal. The Russian Ukrainian war took place against the background of the sharp correction of the military industry sector in the early stage. With the help of the catalysis of this event, the gain of the CSI military industry index relative to the Shanghai index reached 5.6% and the Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) relative gain reached 10.9% in the week before the war. However, we believe that after the war, the emotional factors of the military industry board will gradually weaken within a week and be dominated by the fundamental logic again.
The high outlook of the military industry is expected to continue. 2022 should be "light track, heavy individual stocks". At the current time point, it is recommended to configure "four dimensions": 1) oversold rebound targets, including Avicopter Plc(600038) , Fujian Torch Electron Technology Co.Ltd(603678) , Nanjing Quanxin Cable Technology Co.Ltd(300447) and Guangdong Shenglu Telecommunication Tech.Co.Ltd(002446) ; 2) Targets with both performance growth and valuation, including Nancal Technology Co.Ltd(603859) , Tianjin 712 Communication & Broadcasting Co.Ltd(603712) , Beijing Relpow Technology Co.Ltd(300593) ; 3) Performance exceeding expectations and high growth targets with certainty, including China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) ; 4) The targets of performance growth improvement by state-owned enterprise reform include Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Addsino Co.Ltd(000547) , China Marine Information Electronics Company Limited(600764) , etc.
Guosheng Securities: the military communication sector, as part of the traditional blue chip sector of the communication industry, has entered the low end of the valuation range
The military communications sector, as a traditional blue chip sector in the communications industry, currently Tianjin 712 Communication & Broadcasting Co.Ltd(603712) , Guangzhou Haige Communications Group Incorporated Company(002465) and other representative companies have reached the low valuation range after the industry adjustment, which is expected to usher in better valuation repair opportunities with the recovery of sentiment in the sector caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the release of subsequent performance. Meanwhile, on January 28, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued several opinions on the promotion and application of Beidou in the field of mass consumption, pointing out the need to speed up the exploration of Beidou's commercial application. We believe that with the continuous promotion of commercial exploration and the development of Southeast Asian market, Beidou's market is expected to usher in considerable development. It is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai Huace Navigation Technology Ltd(300627) , Tianjin 712 Communication & Broadcasting Co.Ltd(603712) , Guangzhou Haige Communications Group Incorporated Company(002465) , Shenzhen H&T Intelligent Control Co.Ltd(002402) Beijing Bdstar Navigation Co.Ltd(002151) and other high-quality companies in the industrial chain.
AVIC Securities: we should not be overly pessimistic and blindly sell down! The military industry has entered the stage of exchanging time for space
At the current time point, our judgment is that the current large-scale adjustment is unrealistic. The valuation of the military industry has become cheap and has entered the configuration range with cost performance again. In the face of irrational adjustment, it is more necessary to be rational and calm at the current stage. The space for further deep adjustment is limited. Although it still takes time for confidence recovery and style transformation, the bottom is approaching and has entered the stage of time for space. It is not suitable to be overly pessimistic and blindly kill. Although the recent geopolitical conflict appears to be only a short-term stimulus to the military industry, in essence, it highlights the importance and urgency of developing the military industry, which is the big logic to support the industry and the long logic to support the market.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : the military industry index is expected to replicate the performance of the wind power index in the second half of 2021 in 2022
Military industry welcomes the dual wheel drive of "endogenous + extension", and the two wings of "domestic demand + foreign trade" and "military products + civilian products" fly together. 1) The military industry of national defense has a high growth certainty. In 2022, it entered a two wheel drive sweet period of "business cycle + asset integration" and "endogenous + extension". In the follow-up, "domestic demand + foreign trade" and "military products + civilian products", the military industry index is expected to replicate the performance of the wind power index in the second half of 2021 in 2022, and the latter ranks first.
2) 2022 is the year when the "three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform" ends, and the relevant reform process is expected to accelerate. A proposal to focus on the development of the company'self-development and the state-owned enterprise reform. Coupled with the resonance of the coupling resonance between the development of the company itself and the reform of state-owned enterprises, a proposal to focus attention on the development of the company itself and the coupling resonance of the state-owned enterprise reform. It's suggested to focus on the company's own development and the coupling resonance of the coupled resonance of the coupling resonance of the coupling resonance between the company's own development and the reform of state-owned enterprises. It's suggested to focus attention on the development of the company itself and the development of the company itself and the reform of state-owned enterprises. The relevant targets that could be expected to benefit are like: 60076 Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) 's\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\482 , China Marine Information Electronics Company Limited(600764) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , etc.
3) scale effect + refined management, "small core and large cooperation", and the performance flexibility of the main engine plant in the next five years: Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group Corporation Co.Ltd(600967) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , China Cssc Holdings Limited(600150) .
4) raw materials and core sets: look at high barriers / high scarcity / competitive landscape: high barriers to high barriers / high scarcity / competitive landscape good competition pattern: high-high barriers to high barriers / high scarcity / high competition pattern of high-a high-a high-a high-a high-a high-a competition pattern of a high-a high-a high-a high-a high-a high-a high-a high-a high-a high-a high-a high barrier / high scarcity / a competitive landscape of a good pattern of high-a high-a high-a high barrier / high scarcity / competition pattern of a high-a high-a high-a high-a barrier / high a high-a high-a scarcity / high-a high-a high-level alloy / composite / component level matching / engine forging and casting parts of engine forging. Subdivision tracks: , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) , Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co.Ltd(002651) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) Wuxi Hyatech Co.Ltd(688510) Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co.Ltd(603308) Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) Xi'An Bright Laser Technologies Co.Ltd(688333) 。
5) missiles and informatization with high industry growth: Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co.Ltd(300395) , Fujian Torch Electron Technology Co.Ltd(603678) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Chengdu Zhimingda Electronics Co.Ltd(688636) , Wuhan Guide Infrared Co.Ltd(002414) , Zhejiang Dali Technology Co.Ltd(002214) , China Marine Information Electronics Company Limited(600764) .
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : military embedded computer is expected to become the main track of national defense informatization investment
Military embedded computer is the brain of modern military system and plays a core supporting role in information war.
Military embedded computer is a special computer used in weapons and equipment, which has strict requirements for function, volume, reliability and security. Its form is a board or chassis integrating software and hardware. Among them, the hardware is mainly composed of embedded microprocessor and other components, and the software is mainly composed of embedded operating system, driver and application software. Modern war has changed from mechanized military form to information military form. There is an urgent and rigid demand for high-speed video processing, high-speed information storage, high-speed military communication and high-speed digital signal acquisition and processing.
The military embedded computer industry has a good growth, and the market space has rapidly exceeded 10 billion. In terms of scenarios, the missile borne field is expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 50% every year, benefiting from the large volume of main battle missiles and the demand for projectile guidance; In the field of airborne, it is expected to maintain a growth rate of about 30% every year, benefiting from the large volume of main combat aircraft and the increase in the proportion of avionics system value; In the field of vehicle and shipborne, it mainly benefits from the Informatization Transformation of weapon platforms, which is expected to maintain a natural growth of 10-15% every year. Combined with the US Department of Defense's China military and security development report 2021, we estimate that the annual market space of China's military embedded computers exceeds 10 billion yuan and will maintain a high growth rate.
In terms of investment suggestions, military embedded computing has a wide range of use scenarios and considerable monomer value. With the increase of the volume and penetration of main battle equipment, the market space is expected to continue to expand. In addition, the long-term accumulation of relevant enterprises in the military industry and the harsh characteristics of highly customized products build barriers and moats. It is suggested to focus on the Chengdu Zhimingda Electronics Co.Ltd(688636) , which covers the most complete military services and weapon platforms, the Changsha Jingjia Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300474) of airborne display and control system and the Jiangsu Leike Defense Technology Co.Ltd(002413) of radar system.
Minsheng Securities: the current position of military industry has the dual attributes of undervalued value and high growth, and has great allocation value
The current position of military industry has the dual attributes of underestimated value and high growth, and has great configuration value. It is suggested to focus on the information and new material segments in the middle and upper reaches of the industrial chain. Focus on the following: 1) new materials: 1) new materials: 1) focus of focus: 1) focus on the focus: 1) focus on the focus: 1) new materials: 1) new materials: the Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ etc; 2) Informatization: 35353535\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ Zhuzhou Hongda Electronics Corp.Ltd(300726) , Nanjing Quanxin Cable Technology Co.Ltd(300447) etc; 3) The core set of core matching and the host host factory: the core set of the core set and the host factory: the core set and the host factory: the following: ' Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\, Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , etc.
Capital Securities: grasp the main line of aviation equipment investment, military electronics has high independent and controllable growth
Grasp the main line of aviation equipment investment, and the independent and controllable growth of military electronics is high: 1) the contract liabilities of main engine factory + verification of advance payment, and the growth of aviation industry chain will continue to be realized. The performance transmission is effective. From the main engine plant and engine system, to the body system and parts, and then to the upstream raw material sector, the whole industry chain has strong momentum and certainty. The main engine manufacturer pays attention to Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) ; The body system pays attention to Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) ; Aviation parts focus on Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) ; Metal materials focus on Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , etc. 2) The certainty of missile weapons and equipment benefits from actual combat military training. The independent control of military electronics in the field of high-end equipment brings high growth. We pay attention to Chengdu Tianjian Technology Co.Ltd(002977) , Chengdu Rml Technology Co.Ltd(301050) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Beijing Fjr Optoelectronic Technology Co.Ltd(688272) , etc.
Dongguan Securities: optimistic about the high prosperity of the military industry under the demand for equipment upgrading during the 14th five year plan
The valuation of military industry and aviation sector has fallen below the average value of nearly one year, so it can be arranged at an appropriate time. In the short term, the global interest rate increase cycle may have an impact on companies with high valuation. Superimposed on the fact that the performance growth rate of some military industrial groups is lower than expected, the industry may have great volatility in the short term, but the short-term volatility will not affect the high prosperity of the industry during the whole "14th five year plan" period. In the long run, geopolitical events are becoming more and more complicated. The United States and its allies are showing signs of shifting their strategic focus to the Asia Pacific region. The emergence of the US Navy in the South China Sea has become a norm. The number of global military exercises is becoming more and more frequent. Only by improving their military strength can they better cope with the increasingly complex world situation.
Optimistic about the high prosperity of the industry under the demand for equipment upgrading during the 14th Five Year Plan period; From the perspective of usage, with the increase of actual training times, the loss of trainer aircraft and the replenishment of missile inventory are increased. We are optimistic about the aviation industry chain and the missile industry chain with high consumables. On the other hand, Wu Yanhua, deputy director of the National Space Administration, said at the white paper press conference of China's aerospace in 2021 that in the next five years, we should accelerate the transfer and transformation of aerospace technology achievements to economy and society, and be optimistic about the development of Beidou industrial chain under Aerospace industry services and the Internet of things, as well as the development of special chips under the new round of digital currency reform. Target suggestions and concerns: Xi'An Triangle Defense Co.Ltd(300775) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , etc.
