Over the weekend, the overseas market continued to be volatile, and today (February 28) the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded rapidly after opening. In early trading, the trend of Shanghai index was weak, while the trend of gem index and Shenzhen composite index was slightly stronger under the performance of track stocks; In the afternoon, the stock indexes turned red one after another, but the contraction picked up throughout the day, which is worthy of further observation.
As of the close of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets all day, the Shanghai index rose 0.32% to 346231 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.32% to 1345573 points; The gem index rose 0.89% to 288131.
From the disk point of view, under the differentiation pattern, the rise and fall of industry and concept sectors are different, and the local profit-making effect is general. In terms of industries, photovoltaic, energy metals, port shipping, coal, chemical raw materials, medical devices, ships, batteries and other industries led the increase; In terms of subject stocks, digital currency, in vitro diagnosis, data security, covid-19 detection, hit battery, lithium extraction from Salt Lake and scarce resources led the rise.
In terms of funds, according to the news on the central bank’s website on the 28th, in order to maintain stable liquidity at the end of the month, on February 28, 2022, the people’s Bank of China launched a reverse repurchase operation of 300 billion yuan by means of interest rate bidding, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.1%, unchanged from the last time. As 10 billion yuan of reverse repo expired today, a net investment of 290 billion yuan was realized.
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message surface
1. According to the first financial report, on February 28, the Information Office of the State Council held a press conference on “accelerating the construction of a transportation power and striving to be a good pioneer”. In response to a reporter’s question, Dai Dongchang, Vice Minister of the Ministry of transport, said that this year, infrastructure construction and investment will be carried out moderately ahead of schedule, key project construction will be taken as an important starting point for expanding effective investment in transportation, the implementation of transportation projects among 102 major national projects will be promoted in an overall manner, and a number of projects with great significance, far-reaching impact, large volume and good benefits will be implemented Major transportation engineering projects with leading technology.
2. According to the monitoring of the national development and Reform Commission, in the week from February 21 to 25, the national average specific price of pig grain was 4.98 ∶ 1, entering the level I early warning range of excessive decline determined in the working plan for improving the regulation mechanism of government pork reserves and ensuring supply and price stability in the pork market. The national development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, will immediately start the collection and storage of the central frozen pork reserve and guide all localities to actively collect and store. According to preliminary statistics, at present, Beijing, Jiangxi, Hubei, Chongqing, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Ningxia and other places have started collection and storage, and other places will also start in the near future.
3. According to the securities times, the reporter learned on February 28 that in order to further implement the opinions of the general office of the CPC Central Committee and the general office of the State Council on strictly cracking down on securities illegal activities according to law (hereinafter referred to as the opinions of the two offices), recently, with the consent of the Shanghai municipal government, the Shanghai municipal plan on strictly cracking down on securities illegal activities according to law was officially issued.
4. According to Chinanet, the Information Office of the State Council is scheduled to hold a press conference on February 28. Xiao Yaqing, Minister of industry and information technology, said at the press conference that we will continue to implement policies such as subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles, awards and subsidies for charging facilities, vehicle and vessel tax reduction and exemption. At the same time, new energy vehicles, green smart appliances and green building materials will be carried out in the countryside.
institutional views
For the February market, the A-share market fluctuates greatly, and the main trading line switches frequently between the “steady growth” chain and growth style Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) pointed out that looking forward to March, on the one hand, under the background that the impact of the tense situation in Russia and Ukraine on A-share risk appetite has come to an end and the convening of the national two sessions will help the market unify its expectations of economy and policy strength, A-share risk appetite is expected to continue to pick up. But on the other hand, we need to be vigilant against the short-term constraints on the formation of A-Shares by the Fed’s interest rate hike. Therefore, under the “wrist breaking” of the two forces, the market volatility may further increase. It is suggested to maintain a balanced allocation, but the position is gradually inclined to the growth style and actively participate in the market in the third stage of growth.
Ping An securities mentioned that the A-share market is still dominated by shocks, but structural opportunities are expected to increase, and the overall performance will be better than that in February. After March, with the release of economic data, the policy statements of the two sessions and the performance of listed companies, the uncertainty of the market will gradually decrease and the bottom of the market will be closer and closer. Structurally, it is suggested to focus on the energy and chemical sector that benefits from the expected catalysis of rising energy prices, and the policy direction represented by information + green energy new infrastructure.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that China’s financial and economic environment is stable, A-Shares are still promising, and pay attention to cost performance in the short term. Compared with overseas liquidity contraction, high inflation and other adverse factors, China’s financial and economic environment is relatively stable. With the support of policies, the downstream demand can gradually recover. The emergence of the economic bottom will significantly boost the market, but in the short term, we need to pay attention to the cost performance and alpha value of allocation. The main line of the industry is still to focus on the areas that benefit from the national long-term strategic support or the support of short-term stable growth policies.
Looking forward to the future, AVIC Securities believes that the first quarter and the second quarter of 2022 are the window period for China’s steady growth policy. From the perspective of counter cyclical regulation and RMB, the overall opportunities of A-Shares may be mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. At present, there is a stage outperforming basis for the value style of a shares. In terms of strategy, control the overall position and tap the relevant stocks with continuous outbreak of fundamentals. It is suggested to take steady growth and strategic support as the main line and lay out high-quality tracks with low value, strong certainty and core competitiveness. For example, high-quality developers, new and old infrastructure and sectors with the potential to develop new businesses after the release of real estate credit risk, such as digital economy, new materials and new energy.
YueKai Securities pointed out that the recent geopolitical conflict + interest rate increase is expected to continue to disturb the market, and foreign capital may be disturbed in the short term. However, combined with the market performance, it has less impact on the consumption sector and more significant impact on the high valuation TMT sector. In addition, March will usher in the convening of the heavyweight meeting. Looking at the overall situation, we expect the market to remain stable during the two sessions. On the whole, the market is dominated by structural rebound and oversold repair. In terms of layout ideas, maintain balanced configuration:
1) steady growth, both offensive and defensive. In terms of fundamentals, we expect that steady growth will still be the main market. Due to the data vacuum at this stage, the bottom supporting effect of the steady growth policy on the economy remains to be observed. If the transmission from wide currency to wide credit to the real economy is smooth, the focus of steady growth in the next stage will be to boost domestic demand; If the transmission path is not smooth and the data shows that the economy is still facing great pressure, the infrastructure investment base may expand to infrastructure real estate. In this scenario, we can pay attention to new and old infrastructure and large finance (banks, real estate and post cycle chain of real estate).
2) reproduce the scarce growth of cost performance. Based on the performance of foreign capital after being disturbed by the impact, not all the overvalued sectors have been abandoned. The advantageous industries with core competitiveness have better anti risk and anti fluctuation ability. Under the energy revolution, the new energy development road represented by “scenery hydrogen storage” has a long slope and thick snow, and the long-term layout value is reproduced after adjustment.
