Today (February 28), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a strong shock pattern as a whole. The three major A-share indexes opened low across the board, and the overall trend in the morning was weak. The index rebounded in the afternoon, and the three indexes gradually turned red, and finally closed up slightly.
In this regard, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the high point of geo risk impact may have passed, and the risk disturbance is mainly reflected in the emotional level. March will enter the preliminary effect observation period of stable growth policy, and it is expected that the follow-up policy will continue to increase and enter the centralized development period.
At the same time, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) mentioned that due to geographical emergencies, investors' risk appetite decreased, resulting in increased global asset volatility. Given that China has a complete industrial chain and little inflation pressure in China, RMB assets have been given the attribute of risk aversion. It is expected that the disturbance of overseas risk events to the A-share market is relatively short. The following two sessions will be held, and it is expected that the steady growth policy will still be intensively implemented, and A-Shares are still in the policy dividend period; In addition, A-share enterprises have successively entered the disclosure period of the first quarterly report of the annual report, and the sectors with high profit growth and business reversal will become the main line.
sector:
I. lithium battery
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities mentioned that China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile had a good start. In January, the production and sales volume reached 452000 and 431000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times respectively, continuing the high growth trend of last year. Under the condition that the downstream terminal demand continues to be hot, the lithium resources in the upstream of the industrial chain maintain a high boom, and the price of lithium salt continues to rise, breaking through the 400000 yuan / ton mark. The world's leading lithium battery enterprises revealed that the shortage of lithium supply could not be solved in the short term, and the global lithium resource leader improved. The global lithium demand is expected to reach 1.5 million tons in 2025. LCE also alleviated the market's concern about the sustainability of the prosperity of the lithium industry to a certain extent.
The agency further analyzed that according to the published forecast of the annual report of 2021, the performance of leading enterprises in the lithium industry began to release significantly from 21q4, while the prosperity of the lithium industry remained unchanged in 2022, and the lithium price remained strong and continued to rise, which made the performance of leading enterprises highly uncertain. Superimposed with the correction of the stock price in the early stage of the lithium sector, the valuation and investment cost performance of the lithium sector is high at present, After the leading 3 Guangdong Tengen Industrial Group Co.Ltd(003003) 00750\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\35.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) pointed out that in 2022 and 2023, the deterministic supply-demand gap of lithium ore will be greatly alleviated in 2024 and 2025. The sustainability of this round of supply-demand mismatch will exceed expectations and continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the lithium sector. Focus on the idea of "performance + growth". Focus on companies with resources, processing capacity and growth in the future, such as leading companies Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng lithium industry, flexible targets Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , etc.
Logic 1: the supply cycle of lithium ore is 6-8 years on average, and the supply growth rate is slow. In the supply cycle of mines in Australia, the exploration and research stage needs to go through three stages: project feasibility study (DFS) and final investment decision (FID), with an average time of more than 5 years; After the feasibility study, the average time of mine design preparation, commissioning and approval is 1-2 years; The average time from mine production to production is 1-2 years; The average production cycle of the mine after shutdown is 2-5 years. Most of the mines to be developed in the world are in the DFS stage and are expected to be put into production in 24-26 years.
Logic 2: lithium battery industry chain expansion cycle mismatch. The price rise logic of silicon and lithium ore in 2021 is resumed, and the mismatch between supply and demand is the main reason. However, more than 80% of silicon production capacity is concentrated in China, and the average period of production expansion is 1.5 years. The release of production capacity in 2022 may stabilize the demand, the industry enters a new round of balance, and the high silicon price is difficult to sustain. 80% of lithium ore production capacity is concentrated abroad. The construction and operation cycle is 3-5 years on average, and the production progress may be less than expected. The release speed and difficulty of the supply side determine the difference between the follow-up trend of lithium ore and silicon material, and the lithium price is difficult to have a big inflection point in recent years.
Logic 3: high quality resources are scarce and the incremental scale is limited. Projects with a single production capacity of more than 50000 tons are very scarce. In the next 2-3 years, most of the new projects are small-scale and can really disturb the supply increment: talison phase 3, Yabao wodgina2, phase 3, sqm expansion and Manono The spot supply of lithium concentrate is tight, which is basically sold in the form of underwriting, and only a small part is sold in the form of loose orders.
II. Electric power
Yingda Securities said that the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan attaches great importance to promoting the technological development and large-scale application of the new energy storage industry, emphasizes clarifying the transmission mechanism of energy storage price, accelerating the large-scale development of energy storage on the power supply side, power grid side and user side, and supporting the construction of a new power system. By 2025, new energy storage will enter the stage of large-scale development from the initial stage of commercialization and have the conditions for large-scale commercial application. By 2030, new energy storage will be fully market-oriented, basically meeting the needs of building a new power system, and comprehensively supporting the realization of the goal of carbon peak in the energy field as scheduled. With the cost reduction driven by technological progress and the continuous improvement of price mechanism and market mechanism, the types of new energy storage will be enriched, and the industry will usher in a period of rapid development.
Galaxy Securities pointed out that renewable energy, large bases, pumped storage, energy storage, etc. are the hot words mentioned most in the energy work of all provinces in 2022, and they are also the focus of the work in 2022. With the continuous promotion of the "double carbon" goal, the advantages of green power with carbon reduction attribute will be further highlighted, and the demand is expected to continue to increase. It is expected that this year, the detailed rules for the minimum proportion of green power consumption of high energy consuming enterprises in all provinces, the detailed rules for green power trading in all provinces, as well as the deductible carbon emissions of green power will be introduced.
Chuancai securities mentioned that with the deepening of the "double carbon" policy, the proportion of photovoltaic wind power and other new energy power generation in the energy structure continues to increase, but the intermittent and unstable characteristics of new energy power generation pose a challenge to the consumption capacity of the power grid. The development of new energy storage will effectively improve the grid connection and consumption capacity of new energy, promote the construction of new power system, and provide guarantee for the vigorous development of new energy.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that under the background of accelerating the construction of new power system, the investment in power grid increased during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and there were great opportunities for structural investment in some fields. Suggestions: 1) UHV and Gil: Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Jiangsu Ankura Smart Transmission Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300617) ; 2) Grid side energy storage: Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) , China Southern Power Grid technology, Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) , Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co.Ltd(002169) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) ; 3) Smart meter: Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co.Ltd(300360) , Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Hexing Electrical Co.Ltd(603556) , Beijing Yupont Electric Power Technology Co.Ltd(688597) ; 4) Energy saving transformer: Yunlu shares, Advanced Technology & Materials Co.Ltd(000969) , Jiangsu Yangdian Science & Technology Co.Ltd(301012) , State Grid Yingda Co.Ltd(600517) ; 5) Intelligent monitoring and maintenance of power grid: Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co.Ltd(688611) , Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.Ltd(688191) , Hangzhou Shenhao Technology Co.Ltd(300853) , Yijiahe Technology Co.Ltd(603666) , China Southern Power Grid technology.
one drawing summary:
