As the new year approaches, the cooling trend of the national property market continues.
On November 15, the National Bureau of statistics released the statistical data on the changes of commercial housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in November 2021. Data show that national house prices have continued the overall month on month downward trend since August, the number of cities with rising house prices has reached a new low, and the number of cities with rising prices of new houses and second-hand houses has dropped to single digits.
Among them, the number of cities with rising new house prices fell from 13 in the previous month to 9, falling for six consecutive months, and the new house prices in 59 cities fell month on month, the largest number of cities with falling new house prices since March 2015; The number of cities with second-hand housing prices rising month on month is still in single digits (3), a decrease of 1 compared with last month, and the second-hand housing prices in 63 cities fell month on month.
In cities with rising house prices, the increase is also at a historically low level. Sanya and Hangzhou are the cities with the largest month on month increase in new house prices, with an increase of only 0.7% and 0.5%; Haikou and Ganzhou, the cities with the largest month on month rise in second-hand housing prices, have not yet reached 0.5%. in addition, there are only two cities in Sanya and Changsha this month, and the prices of new houses and second-hand houses keep rising month on month.
However, with the gradual relaxation of personal credit policy, commercial housing transactions rebounded. According to the national real estate development investment and sales data from January to November 2021 released by the National Bureau of statistics on the same day, from January to November, the sales area of commercial housing was 1581.31 million square meters, an increase of 6.2% over January to November 2019 and an average increase of 3.1% over the two years. Among them, the residential sales area increased by 4.4%, and the residential sales increased by 9.3%.
From the monthly data, the national commercial housing sales area in November was 150.9 million square meters, while the national commercial housing sales area last month was 127.09 million square meters, a slight increase of about 19% month on month, but it is still lower than the sales data in September. The expected repair of home buyers still needs time.
Specifically, in terms of new houses, the new house prices in the first tier cities were flat month on month, and the new house prices in the second and third tier cities continued to decline month on month. Among them, the decline in the new house prices in the second tier cities increased by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous month.
Among the first tier cities, the price of new houses in Guangzhou has become a major drag. In November, the prices of new houses in Beijing and Shanghai increased by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively month on month, and the increase in Beijing converged by 0.3 percentage points month on month; New house prices in Shenzhen fell month on month and became flat; New house prices in Guangzhou fell 0.6% month on month, with a decline of 0.3 percentage points.
Yan Yuejin, director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, said that in November, the general downward trend of house prices was more prominent in 70 cities across the country, and all line cities were facing cooling pressure, indicating that the current financial pressure of real estate enterprises is relatively large. The follow-up should focus on the third and fourth tier cities with greater pressure on inventory backlog and dominated by the new housing market.
First finance and economics noted that in order to curb the price reduction and promotion of real estate enterprises and disrupt the market order, in the third and fourth tier cities that have issued the “price limit order”, the real estate market regulation has gradually achieved results, and there has been a slight month on month rise and slowdown in the decline of new house prices in some cities. For example, Yueyang new house prices rose 0.3% month on month, Kunming new house prices fell 0.8% month on month to flat, and the decline of new house prices in Tangshan and other places also slowed down.
On the other hand, at a time when the national new housing market is generally cold, the new housing prices in Sanya have increased greatly for two consecutive months. In November, the price of new houses in Sanya increased by 0.7 percentage points month on month, while last month, the price of new houses in Sanya increased by 0.8 percentage points month on month, ranking the first for two consecutive months. Some analysts said that this may be related to the low supply of new houses in Sanya.
In terms of second-hand housing, the cooling trend is more obvious. In November, the prices of second-hand houses in the first, second and third tier cities fell by – 0.3%, – 0.4% and – 0.4% respectively month on month. Among them, the price decline of second-hand houses in the second and third tier cities increased by 0.1 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month, and the decline continued to expand for two consecutive months.
However, the overall decline in second-hand housing prices in first tier cities converged by 0.2 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, the prices of second-hand houses in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased by 0.2%, 0.1%, 0.5% and 0.2% month on month respectively. Except Shenzhen, the price decline of second-hand houses in other three cities narrowed.
The callback sign of the second-hand housing market in first tier cities is also reflected in the trading volume. For example, the trading volume of second-hand housing markets in Beijing and Shenzhen rebounded for the first time after seven consecutive months of decline, but it was still cold compared with last year. Among them, the turnover of second-hand houses in Beijing in the current month was about 10352 units, slightly higher than that in the previous month, but it was still at a low level in the year and still decreased year-on-year; In Shenzhen, according to the data of China Index Research Institute, as of the end of November, the number of second-hand housing transactions and transaction area in Shenzhen increased by 115.6% and 119.7% month on month respectively, but still far lower than that in the same period last year.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, said that behind the first narrowing of the decline in second-hand housing prices in first tier cities and a few hot cities such as Hangzhou, it is related to the high replacement proportion of housing market in such cities. In the past two months, the improvement of the credit environment has promoted the flow of the house exchange chain, the trading volume of the real estate market in hot cities has shown signs of recovery, and the market expectation has improved, driving the decline of house prices to narrow.
Looking forward to the future, Xu Xiaole said that the decline in house prices across the country is expected to gradually narrow. According to the data of Shell Research Institute, the trading volume of second-hand houses in shell 50 city continued to rise from October to November, and the market showed signs of recovery. According to the basic law of “quantity first, price first”, the initial correction of quantity will lay a foundation for the stop of price decline in the later stage.
In terms of expectations, since December, the “50 city second-hand housing landscape index” released by the shell Research Institute has also shown signs of stopping the decline and improvement, among which the expected improvement of key cities in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta is relatively more obvious.
With the signals of “supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers” and “promoting the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban implementation”, Xu Xiaole expects that the subsequent personal housing credit environment will be further improved. Under the background of urban implementation, some cities may introduce supporting policies for the first house and improved housing, This will accelerate the recovery of market transactions and slow down the downward pressure on house prices.
(First Finance)
