Xun Yugen, chief economist, believes that the market structure will be more balanced at the end of this year and the beginning of this year, focusing on underestimated big finance, high prosperity hard technology and consumption. Looking forward to 2022, it is expected that commodity prices priced internationally will rise, pig prices will reverse or appear near the second quarter of next year, and copper, crude oil and pig industrial chain will be one of the structural highlights of next year.
The full text of the research report is as follows
Qu Zequan, wrong is straight – China’s capital market outlook in 2022
core conclusion: ① similar to the U.S. stocks in the 1980s, Niu, the head of a shares, has been slowly launched. There are two driving forces: the upgrading of industrial structure promotes the enterprise roe, and the transfer of asset allocation raises the valuation center. ② The bull also has a rest period, with 22 years of disturbance: inflation restricts the periodic decline of interest rate level and profits. The cross-year market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year is the best window period. ③ At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, we will allocate finance, real estate, hard technology and consumption in a balanced manner. Next year’s structural highlights: some price increase fields (copper, pigs, etc.) and consumer services with reversal of difficulties.
At the beginning of the 19th century, we proposed that the era of China’s long-term equity investment is coming. Driven by the improvement of fundamentals and capital, A-Shares are expected to usher in a bull similar to the U.S. stocks after the 1980s. Of course, the development of things is a process of wave advance and spiral rise. Although the direction is advance and rise, the process may be tortuous. Therefore, we also pointed out at the beginning of the 19th that from the perspective of the small bull bear cycle, this round of A-share bull market may last for three years, and the Wande all a index is expected to achieve a rare annual line of three consecutive positive this year. Looking forward to 2022, under the dual disturbance of high inflation and cyclical decline of earnings, A-Shares may usher in consolidation in the long bull. This does not change the general trend of China’s long-term equity investment era. Short-term twists and turns are the driving force for the long-term rise of savings. As stated in the Tao Te Ching: “Qu is complete, and waste is straight”.
1。 vision: full and straight is the direction
Since the beginning of 2019, many reports have discussed that China is similar to the United States in the 1980s. The curtain of economic transformation has opened, and the era of equity investment is slowly unfolding. The core behind Beijing Dynamic Power Co.Ltd(600405) is that the upgrading of industrial structure will lead to the rise of enterprise roe and the migration of investor asset allocation structure to the stock market. After more than two years, standing at the current time point, we can find that positive changes are already taking place. Previous reports such as “now is similar to 2005-20190217”, “we will look down on the present – on the current China is similar to the United States in the 1980s-20191217”, “big wave: residents from house purchase to allotment-20200213”, “A-share valuation center may be moving up-20210507”, etc.
foundation 1 of longbull: transformation promotes the enterprise roe center. specifically, from the perspective of macro background, China is similar to the United States in the 1980s. The economic growth center is in the downward trend and is in the key stage of macro-economy from large to strong and industrial structure transformation and upgrading. At present, China’s industrial transformation and upgrading has a solid foundation in three aspects:
① In terms of human capital, China’s talent bonus is rising. In 2020, the proportion of China’s population with higher education has reached 15%, the number of ordinary college graduates has reached 8.7 million, and the proportion of stem major has reached 62%. The number of scientists and engineers has increased from 620000 in 2003 to 1.1 million in 2018, and the engineer bonus will gradually appear. ② In terms of policies, China has taken self-reliance and self-improvement in science and technology as the strategic support for national development. At the same time, financial policies are also actively promoting scientific and technological innovation. The reform of the registration system of the science and innovation board and the gem and the establishment of the Beijing stock exchange provide better support for the financing of the science and technology industry. ③ In terms of technology accumulation, China has made certain advantages in 5g, new energy technology and other fields. For example, as of February 21, Huawei’s 5g patent share accounted for 15.4% in the world, which is in a leading position; In terms of new energy technologies, in 2020, China’s total installed capacity of PV accounted for about 36% of the world, and 21q1 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) power cells accounted for 32% of the global market, ranking first in the world.
Referring to the experience of the United States in the 1980s, the industrial structure of the United States has been optimized after 1980. From the perspective of the proportion of industry added value in GDP, the proportion of manufacturing added value in GDP has decreased from 20% to 11% in 2020, while the total proportion of information industry and consumer industry has steadily increased from 11% to 17% in the same period. Consumption and technology with relatively higher profitability push up the overall micro enterprise roe. Under the background of the overall downward movement of the U.S. GDP growth center, the S & P 500 ROE (TTM, holistic approach) center increased from 14% in 1976-1985 to 16% in 1986-2020. In contrast, China’s industrial structure has been dominated by labor-intensive manufacturing industry for a long time. With the decline of the proportion of the working population and the acceleration of population aging after 2010, the proportion of the working age (15-64 years old) population in the total population decreased from 74.5% in 2010 to 68.6% in 2020. The inflection point of China’s demographic dividend has emerged. The advantages of traditional labor-intensive manufacturing industry are gradually disappearing, while the cost is rising The decline in profitability led to the overall downward movement of all A-share roe centers in the past decade, and all A-share ROE (TTM) continued to decline from about 16% of the highest in 10q4 to 8% of the lowest in 20q2. In the future, with the deepening of the transformation and upgrading of China’s industrial structure, the A-share roe center will gradually rise similar to the U.S. stocks in the 1980s.
bull foundation 2: the transfer of asset allocation helps to move the stock market valuation up. with the changes of industrial structure and population structure, the proportion of equity in the asset allocation of Chinese residents is expected to rise. At the same time, the asset allocation of institutional investors such as bank financial management and insurance capital also tends to be biased towards equity. Driven by the allocation force, A-Shares will be similar to US stocks in the 1980s, and the valuation center is expected to rise systematically.
In terms of residents’ asset allocation, the asset allocation structure of Chinese residents has been obviously biased towards real estate for a long time, and the equity category (stocks, equity biased funds, etc.) accounts for only 2%, lower than 34% in the United States, 12% in Germany and 9% in Japan. However, the industrial structure and population structure factors that promote residents’ asset allocation to real estate in the early stage are changing: on the one hand, China’s economy has changed from high-speed growth stage to high-quality development stage, the industrial structure is changing from industry led to information + service industry, and the financing structure of the whole society will change from bank credit to equity financing. On the other hand, in 2020, the average age of China’s population has reached 38.8 years old, with a per capita housing area of about 39.8 square meters, close to the world’s medium level, and the residents’ rigid demand for real estate will decline. In addition, in the past, China’s house prices rose high and the volatility was small. Compared with other major categories of assets in China, the cost performance of real estate investment is very high. In the future, China’s real estate tax reform pilot may reduce the investment attraction of housing assets and highlight the cost performance of equity assets, so as to boost the asset allocation of Chinese residents from real estate to equity. In terms of institutional asset allocation, with the countdown to the transition period of new asset management regulations, banks and financial companies are strengthening the layout of equity assets by issuing fof products. Since the current bull market, the asset allocation of insurance capital has also shown a trend of bias towards equity assets. The proportion of equity investment of insurance capital has increased to 13.7% in 20 years. Since this year, the proportion of equity asset allocation has also been higher than the average level of 18 and 19 years.
Drawing on the history of U.S. stocks, the United States successively launched individual pension accounts (i.e. IRAs plan) and 401 (k) plan in the 1970s, making private pension the main source of funds in the U.S. mutual fund and capital market, and promoting the transfer of asset allocation of U.S. residents to the securities market. Driven by the power of asset allocation, the valuation center of US stocks began to rise since 1980. The standard & Poor’s 500 PE (TTM, the same below) center has increased from 15.0 times in 1954-79 to 18.7 times since 1980 (as of 21 / 12 / 10, the same below). Over the past two decades, the asset allocation structure of Chinese residents has obviously biased towards real estate, which can also be seen from the asset valuation. In the past ten years, the rent return rate of beishangshen has been basically 2% or less. If the stock valuation method is used as an analogy, the rent return rate of beishangshen and other first tier cities corresponds to more than 50 times of PE, which is very high and very stable in the past. Since 2010, the downward trend of A-share valuation center has been obvious: the CSI 300 PE center has decreased from 23.7 times in 2005-10 to 12.3 times since 2011. In our report “A-share valuation center may be moving up-20210507”, we proposed that from a medium and long-term perspective, driven by the upward movement of A-share roe center, the shift of asset allocation to equity and the downward movement of interest rate center, A-share will be similar to US stocks after 1980s in the future, and the valuation center is expected to move up systematically.
A-Shares gradually evolved into low volatility bull long bear short. on the whole, driven by the upward movement of roe center of A-share and the shift of asset allocation to equity, China’s long-term equity investment era is slowly unfolding. Referring to the experience of U.S. stocks after 1980, the volatility of U.S. stocks decreased significantly after 1980, and the bull market slowed down, but the time was longer: for example, the bull market of U.S. stocks in 1920s and 1930 lasted only 5-8 years, with an annualized increase of about 30%, while the average bull market of U.S. stocks after 1980 extended to nearly 12 years, and the average annualized increase decreased to 15%. According to our analysis in “do you want to choose the time? — A-Shares vs. US stocks – 20200615”, the overall fluctuation of the stock market can actually be disassembled from the two dimensions of profit and valuation. There are two reasons for the low fluctuation of US stocks after 1980: first, the higher proportion of consumption and technology profits with more stable performance makes the profit fluctuation of US stocks small; Second, the high proportion of institutional investors in U.S. stocks makes the valuation fluctuation of U.S. stocks relatively gentle.
Judging from the trend of this round of bull market, there are actually signs of bull slow bull, head of stock a. In the past, the duration of A-share bull market was shorter than that of U.S. stocks, and the fluctuation of bull bear market was higher. However, since this bull market, the increase of stock index has been much milder than that of previous bull markets. Since 19 years (as of December 10, 2021, the same below), the annualized increase of Shanghai Composite Index (CSI 300) has been 15% (20%), while the annualized increase of Shanghai Composite Index (CSI 300) in the previous three bull markets has exceeded 100% (130%). Similar to U.S. stocks after 1980, behind the lengthening and slowing of this bull market is the continuous development of China’s industrial structure and investor structure: ① the proportion of profits in strong cycle industries has decreased. In 2000, industries with strong periodicity such as real estate, energy and materials accounted for nearly 50% of the profits in a shares, while in 2010, the proportion decreased to about 30% and further decreased to about 20% in 21q3; ② The proportion of institutional investors continued to rise. From 2010 to 2021q3, the proportion of Chinese institutional investors (public funds, insurance and foreign capital) increased from 19% to 30%, and from 6% to 15% in terms of the total market value. From the perspective of the duration of bull bear market in China and the United States, the time ratio of bull, bear and shock market in U.S. stocks has been 8:1:1 since 1980, while the time ratio of bull, bear and shock market in A-Shares has been 4:2:4 since 1990. In the future, with the further evolution of China’s industrial structure and investor structure, the form of A-share market will gradually develop into low volatility bull long bear short.
In the future, the form of A-Shares is expected to usher in low volatility bull long bear short, but this does not mean that there is no volatility. We analyzed in from housing market to stock market: real estate tax reform pilot assisted allocation migration-20211118. Drawing lessons from the past US stocks and China’s housing market, we can find that there is also retreat and rest in the long bull. The rest in the long bull occurs every 3-4 years. The macro background is often that the economic cycle is in the stagflation stage. In terms of decline, since 1980, the average retreat rate of American stock chief Niu Zhong has been about 13% (excluding the sharp decline of American stocks caused by the impact of events in 1987 and 2020). Similarly, the retreat rate of China’s housing market is also close to that of American stocks. The largest decline in second-hand house prices in Beishang Shenzhen in 2005 is about 10%. China has a short economic cycle, and the inventory cycle is about 3-4 years. Combined with the long bull trend of U.S. stocks and China’s housing market in the past, the withdrawal of A-share bull in the future may also occur once in about 3-4 years, and the background may be that the investment clock is in the stagflation stage.
2。 close up: Qu he Wu is the process
We mentioned above that there will also be a retreat and rest in the process of stock market bull growth. The A-share bull market opened in 2019 has experienced three years of rise. Looking forward to 2022, under the dual disturbance of high inflation and cyclical decline of profits, A-shares may usher in a rest in the long bull, which is a stage of momentum.
disturbance 1: inflationary pressure. looking back on the typical inflation cycle since 2000, the upward period of CPI and PPI in 2006-08 lasted 25 and 28 months respectively, and the upward period of CPI and PPI in 2009-11 lasted 24 months. In the current round of inflation cycle, the low point of CPI is – 0.5% in November of 20 years and the low point of PPI is – 3.7% in May of 20 years. As of November of 21 years, it has only risen for 12 months and 18 months respectively. From the perspective of time dimension, the upward cycle of inflation has not been completed. Looking forward to next year, we believe that price increase is still one of the key words in the macro dimension. First, the global economic recovery promotes the upward price of internationally priced commodities, and China is facing imported inflation pressure. Second, the upward pig cycle next year may push up China’s CPI.
Under the impact of the epidemic, the current round of economic operation is similar to that before and after 2009-11. It has experienced the process of “crisis → drainage → recovery → inflation”. Drawing on history, the rise of commodity prices in the process of global recovery is divided into two stages. In the first stage, the rise in prices is mainly due to abundant liquidity, and in the second stage, the continued rise in inflation is due to the improvement of fundamentals. In terms of price rise time, the upward cycle of CRB commodity index began at the low point of 2009 / 02, and the high point was 2011 / 05, lasting for 27 months; The upward cycle of LME copper price began from the low point of 2008 / 12 and the high point was 2011 / 04 for 28 months. In the 20-year round of commodity price increases, the copper lows of CRB and LME are 2020 / 04 and 2020 / 03 respectively. The upward price has continued for 20 and 21 months. Compared with the upward time in 2009-11, this upward cycle has not been completed.
The prices of CRB, copper and other commodities priced internationally depend on global demand and liquidity. The GDP of developed economies such as the United States and Europe accounts for nearly 60% of the world. Therefore, the economic operation status of developed economies such as the United States and Europe is more related to the trend of commodity prices. Looking forward to next year, vaccination and specific drugs will escort the global economic recovery. According to the prediction of the IMF, the year-on-year growth rate of global GDP in 2022 is expected to reach 4.9%. Among them, developed economies such as the United States and Europe are expected to become the leader in overseas economic recovery. It is expected that the GDP growth rate of the United States and the euro zone will reach 5.2% and 4.3% in 22 years, which is significantly higher than the average growth rate of 1.3% and – 0.7% in 20 and 21 years. Therefore, it is expected that internationally priced commodities such as copper and crude oil will usher in the second wave of rise driven by fundamentals, and China’s PPI will face the pressure of imported inflation.
Since this year, compared with the continuously rising PPI, CPI has only risen moderately year-on-year, mainly because the continuous decline of pig prices has restrained the rise of CPI. Looking forward to 22 years, pig prices are expected to start rising in the second quarter, and there will be upward pressure on CPI. In pig breeding, the profit of farmers and the stock of fertile sows are two important indicators to judge the inflection point of pig cycle. The profit change of farmers is the core reason to drive the spontaneous adjustment of the stock of fertile sows. The stock of fertile sows directly affects the stock of pigs after 10 months, and then affects the price of pork. In the downward process of pig prices since July 20, farmers’ losses far exceeded the previous two pig cycles. The maximum losses of purchased piglets and self bred pigs reached 1571 yuan / head and 771 yuan / head respectively. Under the huge losses, the stock of fertile sows may have ushered in an inflection point in July and began the process of decontamination: the stock of fertile sows decreased from 25.7% in June to 24.5% in July, further decreased to 6.6% in October, and the stock of fertile sows was – 0.5% month on month in July. This is the first decline in the stock of fertile sows since September 19, and the decline expanded to – 2.5% month on month in October. Combined with the losses of farmers and the changes in the stock of fertile sows, we believe that the pig price may bottom out near the second quarter of next year, or it may push the CPI upward.
The rise of internationally priced commodity prices will push up global inflation expectations. It is difficult to have room for loose monetary policy, and the expectation of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve is heating up. According to Bloomberg’s prediction, the probability of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve is high in the second half of 22 years, and the interest rate center of U.S. ten-year Treasury bonds is likely to move upward. In the context of the improvement of global economic synchronization, the interest rates of China and the United States ten-year Treasury bonds have been basically positively correlated since the end of 2008. The center of US Treasury bond interest rates has moved up, and it is difficult for China’s treasury bond interest rates to go down. In addition, learning from history, the annual average interest rate of China’s ten-year Treasury bonds and the annual average inflation (the average value of CPI and PPI) are highly synchronized. Next year, China’s inflation pressure still exists, and it is difficult for the interest rate of ten-year Treasury bonds to decline. From the perspective of the relative valuation of a shares, the risk premium rate (the difference between the reciprocal PE of A-Shares and the yield of ten-year Treasury bonds) is 2.13%, the average value since 13 years (as of 21 / 12 / 10, the same below) is 2.37%, the stock bond yield ratio (CSI 300 dividend yield (past 12 months) / yield of ten-year Treasury bonds) is 0.72, and the average value since 13 years is 0.71. It can be seen that the current valuation comparison between the stock market and the bond market is near the average value since 13 years. The interest rate of ten-year Treasury bonds is difficult to go down, which will restrict the valuation of a shares.
disturbance 2: cyclical fluctuation of profit. looking back on the history, the profit is characterized by the year-on-year net profit attributable to the parent of all A-Shares and ROE (TTM, overall method). Since 2002, the profit of A-Shares has experienced five complete cycles, namely 2002 / 06-06 / 03, 2006 / 06-09 / 06, 2009 / 09-13 / 03, 2013 / 06-16 / 06 and 2016 / 09-20 / 06. At present, A-Shares are in the sixth profit cycle. In the first three rounds of profit cycles, the growth rate of net profit attributable to parent of A-Shares showed strong cyclical fluctuations, and the roe center moved upward. In the last two rounds of profit cycles, the growth rate of net profit attributable to parent of A-Shares showed smaller cyclical fluctuations, and the roe center moved downward. This is related to the transformation of China’s economic structure since 2010. The economy has gradually shifted from investment driven to consumption driven, with less volatility of economic growth. We mentioned earlier that in the future, with the deepening of China’s industrial structure transformation and upgrading process, the roe center of A-Shares will gradually rise similar to the U.S. stocks in the 1980s, but the cyclical fluctuation of A-share profits is inevitable. Looking back at history, in terms of range, the average fluctuation range of net profit growth in the first three profit cycles is 77 percentage points, roe is 4.2 percentage points, and the last two profit cycles are 31 percentage points and 3.3 percentage points respectively. In terms of time, according to the statistics of roe changes, the past five rounds of profit cycles lasted an average of 14.6 quarters, including 6.4 quarters of upward cycles and 8.2 quarters of downward cycles, of which the first two rounds of profit cycles averaged 8.5 quarters of upward and 6.0 quarters of downward, and the last three rounds of profit cycles averaged 5.0 quarters of upward and 9.7 quarters of downward, This is because the downward trend of roe has lengthened the downward cycle since 2011.
We believe that this round of profit recovery cycle is not over yet. In terms of time, this round of roe bottomed out in 20q2 and began to recover in 20q3. It has only lasted for five quarters so far, and the time is not enough. After the 730 Politburo meeting, the policy began to fine tune and the margin of monetary policy was relaxed. At present, the policy is gradually moving from wide currency to wide credit. Therefore, the recovery of roe is expected to last for 7 quarters and will last until the first quarter of 2022, reaching about 10.2%. Looking back, after the second quarter of next year, the roe of A-Shares will start to enter a downward cycle, because historical experience shows that the roe of A-Shares will gradually deteriorate in the later stage of inflation. Specifically, ① in the inflation cycle of 2006-08, CPI rose for 25 months (06 / 04-08 / 04) and PPI rose for 28 months (06 / 05-08 / 08). In the early stage of inflation, A-Shares excluding financial roe continued to rise, rising from 7.0% in 06q1 to 16.0% in 07q4, Since then, it began to fall back and fell to 13.5% by 08q3 inflation peak. ② In the inflation cycle of 2009-11, both CPI and PPI rose for 24 months (09 / 08-11 / 07). In the early stage of inflation, A-share excluding financial roe continued to rise, rising from a low of 7.5% in 09q2 to a high of 13.6% in 10q4. After that, it began to fall back and fell to 13.0% by the high of inflation in 11q2. Overall, in the late stage of the inflation cycle, A-share excluding financial roe began to enter the downward cycle. In this round of inflation cycle, the year-on-year low point of CPI is – 0.5% in November of 20 years, and the year-on-year low point of PPI is – 3.7% in June of 20 years. As of November of 21 years, they have risen for 12 and 18 months respectively. According to historical experience, each round of inflation cycle lasts for 2 ~ 2.5 years. After the first quarter of next year, this round of inflation cycle will enter the later stage, and the downward pressure on A-share roe will increase at that time.
At the same time, combined with the experience that the growth trend of nominal GDP and A-share net profit tends to be consistent, China’s nominal GDP is 2.5% year-on-year in 2020, the net profit attributable to the parent of all A-shares is 1.8% year-on-year, and the two are 13.9% and 25.1% respectively in the first three quarters of 2021. According to wind’s unanimous expectation, China’s nominal GDP is 8% year-on-year in 2022, so it is expected that the growth rate of A-share net profit will also fall in 2022. According to the year-on-year fitting of nominal GDP and year-on-year net profit of a shares, and combined with the bottom-up summary of industry analysts’ forecasts, we get that the year-on-year net profit excluding finance of A-Shares in 2022 is expected to be 3% and that of all A-Shares is 5%.
reduce annual expectations and pay attention to opportunities at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. in the long run, there is a law of mean regression in everything, and so is the operation of the stock market. Taking the split share structure reform in 2005 as the starting point, the annualized rate of return of Wande all a index so far (as of December 10, 2021) is 13%. Looking back, the rise and fall of Wande all a index in the past three years are 33% in 2019, 26% in 2020 and 10% since 2021 respectively. Starting from early 19, the annualized increase of Wande all a in the past three years is 23%, which is significantly higher than the historical average. By replacing wandequan a index with CSI 300 and common stock fund index, we can also draw the same conclusion: the annualized increase of CSI 300 (common stock fund index) since 2005 is about 10% (18%), and the annualized return in the three years from 19 to 21 is 19% (38%), which is also significantly higher than the historical average. From the perspective of bull bear cycle, we divide the market since 2005 into three big bear bull cycles: 05-12, 13-18 and 19 to now, and calculate the yield center of broad-based indexes (wandequan a, CSI 300 and CSI 500). We find that the annualized yield of each broad-based index in the 05-12 cycle is about 10%, about 5% in 13-18 years and about 15% in this round, Obviously higher than the first two rounds, so it may be difficult to say that the stock market will have a big chance of systematization next year. Overall, we believe that the index will be relatively flat next year, and investors need to reduce their expectations of annual yield.
Although we expect that the expected return of the stock market for the whole year next year will be difficult to reproduce the glory of 19-20 years, the market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year is still worth looking forward to. We analyzed in how to understand the low volatility of the market? – 20211128 that the current market amplitude has reached a new low since 2005. Looking back on the law of the amplitude of Wande all a index since 2005, we can find that the index amplitude tends to converge to a low at the end of the year and then expand again. This expansion is the well-known restless market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. Since late November this year, we have analyzed the cross-year market at the end of this year and the beginning of this year in many reports or started it ahead of schedule this year for three reasons: first, the effect of the credit easing policy is emerging after the 730 Politburo meeting, and residents’ housing loans and local government special bonds have begun to improve recently. From December 8 to 10, the central economic work conference was held in Beijing. The conference called for stability and progress in economic work next year. All regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, and make appropriate policy efforts. Second, as mentioned earlier, the current roe is still in the recovery cycle. Third, from the review of previous restless market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the cross year market usually occurs every year. The reason behind this is that the end of the year and the beginning of the year are often the time window for major meetings. At the same time, there are few fundamental data disclosure of A-Shares from November to March, and the capital interest rate usually drops at the beginning of the year, so the risk preference of investors at the beginning of the year is relatively higher. On the whole, the market performance from July to October this year is relatively weak, the current valuation is acceptable, the liquidity is relatively abundant, and the cross-year market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year is worth looking forward to.
3。 investment strategy: Hang Wen Zhiyuan
balanced allocation at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. there is usually a cross year market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. Considering the weak overall performance of the market from July to October this year, we can learn from history and start this cross year market in advance this year. In the past, the agitation market in the early years of the year can be divided into two scenarios. First, the industries with better performance in the early stage continue to lead and go to the bubble, such as Baijiu at the beginning of this year and the beginning of this year. Second, the undervalued sectors in the early stage ushered in a counter attack, such as financial real estate at the end of 2014. In addition, it was analyzed in the previous report “taking history as a mirror: the characteristics of bull market highs are zhonglele-20210824”. In history, when the bull market index reached its peak, most industry valuations were o
