Recently, the Baijiu Baijiu shares that have not performed well this year suddenly turned red, adding strong performance and valuation advantages. Zhang Kun, Liu Yanchun, Wang Zonghe, Xiao Nan and other star fund managers weigh heavily in Baijiu stock. Is their fund worth looking forward to?
This year, the Baijiu plate is very disappointing. Overall, as of November 26th (the same date), the shwan Baijiu industry index fell 5.46% in the beginning of this year, and the three quarter was a 13.58% drop.
but the Baijiu stock Baijiu suddenly rose in recent years, and Shen Wan liquor index has risen nearly 9% since mid November. The Baijiu index (2021-11-22 to 2021-11-26) rose nearly 4.75% this week.
Among individual stocks, this week Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) (600702. SH) led the rise, soaring by 20.11%, followed by Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (000799. SZ) 9.52%, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (600519. SH) 6.16%, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) (603589. SH) 6.00%, Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) (600779. SH) 5.64%, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (000858. SZ) 4.83%.
In addition, Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) (603198. SH), Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) (603919. SH), Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (000568. SZ), Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) (600559. SH), Qinghai Huzhu Barley Wine Co.Ltd(002646) (002646. SZ), Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (600809. SH), Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) (600197. Sh), Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) (002304. SZ) performed well this week and achieved positive returns.
This week only 4 Baijiu stocks fell, and the decline was more than 1%, namely: Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co.Ltd(600199) (600199.SH) -1.08%, Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) (000860.SZ) -1.37%, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (603369.SH) -1.70%, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (000596.SZ) -1.91%.
It is worth mentioning that north capital has poured into the Baijiu unit again. Its ten largest additional stocks this week included three Baijiu, including Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) .
Baijiu liquor red logic
Recently, agencies have expressed their optimism about Baijiu, especially the high-end and Baijiu liquor.
The overall logic behind sellers’ optimism for Baijiu stocks is:
On the one hand, Baijiu sales will soon enter the traditional Spring Festival peak season, and the high-end liquor scene will remain good.
On the other hand, Baijiu three quarterly earnings growth is stable, and the overall decline in the overall sector since the first quarter, the current plate valuation is relatively low.
The most important concern is that in November 24th Goldman Sachs resumed tracking a number of Baijiu shares, which is a strong shot in the Baijiu stock market.
Among them, Goldman Sachs is optimistic about Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and gives a “buy” rating.
Goldman Sachs resumed tracking Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and bought ratings, with a target price of 2101 yuan, an increase of 11%;
The tracking Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) was resumed, the rating was bought, and the target price was 252 yuan, an increase of 17%;
In addition, Goldman Sachs resumed tracking Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , with a neutral rating and a target price of 245.47 yuan;
Give Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) a neutral initial rating with a target price of 200 yuan.
Many sellers have expressed their optimism about the Baijiu plate, but the potential for differentiation is on the plate.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said Baijiu Baijiu is divided, high-end and secondary liquor continues to expand, and demand for popular Baijiu is weak.
Looking forward Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu will continue to focus on differentiation in 2022. China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) recommends attention to high-end liquor with pricing power and performance certainty, continuous upgrading of structure and emblem of reform and expectation of the liquor and wine, and the second high-end liquor that is still in the stage of national expansion.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) said in the research report that the value of high-end Baijiu is outstanding.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) pointed out that the information feedback continued to catalyze the end of the Baijiu, and the development of the volume and price of high-end cottonbaijiu five Lu has obvious marginal changes. The valuation level is at a reasonable level. Moutai accelerates, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is expected to be low and the value of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) is low, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) is highly elastic, and multiple factors are catalyzed. When the value of high-end liquor is outstanding, the layout is focused on: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) .
Bohai Securities pointed out that this week, the food and beverage sector was highlighted by baijiu. The recent rise in Baijiu plate is mainly related to the handover of valuation at the end of the year. In addition, the December will also usher in the Spring Festival season stocking and leading liquor enterprises distributors conference, or will continue to catalyze.
Bohai Securities believes that Baijiu is still operating in the boom cycle and the price cycle of high-end Baijiu will be extended due to price control, and the fine products of public products have opened the price raising cycle. On the plate, we suggest that we must focus on the more high-end Baijiu, and change the space with time, and pay attention to the secondary high-end market.
In addition, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) , Ping An Securities, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) , Huachang securities, Chuang Cai securities and a large number of securities companies have recently released research reports to show their appreciation of Baijiu stock.
The buyers also share the Baijiu stock.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said that “this week’s consumer sector has rebounded, especially in Baijiu and other food and beverage sectors. Many investors are looking forward to whether Baijiu and other food and beverage sectors can lead the rise of consumer stocks, and even lead the gradual launch of the inter annual business.”
“Before and after the Spring Festival is the traditional peak season for consumption, especially in Spring Festival, people drink more. But after a large adjustment in the previous period, the liquor sector has gradually invested in value, especially the leading line of Baijiu Baijiu liquor, and gradually entered the configurable section. Yang Delong said.
In the three quarter, the liquor sector fell more than 13%, heavy star Baijiu Baijiu fund managers still stick to it.
Star fund manager Wang Zong and his fund heavily loaded Baijiu shares, he said in the three quarterly report, “our overall performance in consumer, pharmaceutical and manufacturing sectors is not good enough, resulting in a certain drag on the whole portfolio.”
However, he said, “we believe that these companies in the scope of reasonable valuation can continue to create value. In the future, we will still adhere to in-depth research and value investment, and use time to test our choice of these stocks and industries.”
The recent reversal of the Baijiu plate also has the power of funds.
This week (from November 22, 2021 to November 26, 2021), the total net inflow of northbound funds into A-Shares this week was RMB 14.003 billion.
Among them, the north capital is particularly favored by the Baijiu group. The ten largest stocks are 3 Baijiu shares, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) are ranked two or three and eight respectively, and the market value increases are 1 billion 830 million yuan, 875 million yuan and 586 million yuan respectively.
Can Baijiu save star fund?
According to the data, 698 alcohol theme industry theme funds have an average return of 0.26% this week. But the differentiation is obvious, with the highest return of 4.67% and the lowest return of – 3.32%.
Among them, the Baijiu LOF, the Baijiu fund of 92 billion 900 million yuan, has risen 2.51% this week.
In addition, a large number of heavily loaded Baijiu star fund has also risen.
Li Xiaoxi’s Huatai Bairui consumption growth rose 1.97% this week. The fund has three Baijiu shares at the end of the ten quarter of the three quarter, including Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) .
Wang Zonghe’s Penghua pension industry fund rose 1.95% this week. Half of the ten heavy stocks at the end of the three quarter were Baijiu stocks, including the first heavy warehouse Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , second heavily loaded stocks Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , fourth heavy warehouse stocks Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , fifth heavy duty stocks Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , seventh heavy duty old stock.
Huitianfu consumer industry under Hu Xinwei rose 1.38% this week. The fund is 20 billion 900 million yuan, and half of the ten heavily loaded stocks are Baijiu stocks. The top three heavy positions are Baijiu shares, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) respectively, and sixth, eighth heavy warehouse stocks, and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) .
However, the heavy Baijiu stock also failed to save some fund managers’ performance.
For example, Zhang Kun’s heavy Baijiu blue chip selection, Yi Fang Da quality enterprises held for three years, this week, all fell more than 1.4%.
Take the example of the blue diamond selection of Yi Fang Da, the fund is 69 billion 900 million yuan, and has heavily loaded 4 Baijiu shares. The top three heavy positions are Baijiu shares, including old kiln, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and sixth big warehouse stocks Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) . All 4 Baijiu stock prices rose all week, of which Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) rose more than 6%.
But the rise in Baijiu shares also failed to keep up with the decline in other heavy positions of Yi Fang Da LAN, among which Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) -6.57%, Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) (002415.SZ) -5.33%, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (3968.HK) -4.41%, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (600036.SH) -4.26%, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (E), Hongkong exchange (HK), and (()) – eventually the fund fell 1.43% this week.
Liu Yanchun’s fund performance is also the same. The 6 funds managed by the fund are heavily loaded with Baijiu shares. This week’s earnings are between -2.16% and 0.36%.
Taking the emerging growth of Jingshun Great Wall, the largest managed by Liu Yanchun, as an example, the fund has a scale of 54.3 billion yuan, with an income of 0.36% this week and – 11.73% this year.
INVESCO the Great Wall emerging growth fund has 4 Baijiu shares at the end of the ten quarter of the three quarter, including the first heavy warehouse Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , the fourth big warehouse stocks Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , the ninth heavy warehouse Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and the tenth heavy duty old stock. The 4 Baijiu stock markets rose 3 times in the week, but Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) fell by only 1.91%.
However, the other six heavyweight stocks of Jingshun Great Wall emerging growth fund, except Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) which rose 7.18% this week, all performed poorly – meituan-w (3690. HK), China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (601888. SH), Yaoming Biology (2269. HK) and Tencent holdings fell by more than 6%, and Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) fell by more than 4%.
The funds managed by Xiao Nan also performed poorly this week. E fund’s consumer industry gained 0.11% this week, and the other four funds gained negative this week.
Take the yfonfonda consumer industry fund as an example, the fund is the representative fund of Shaun Nan, with a scale of 29 billion 900 million yuan. The top 5 top ten heavily stock positions in the three quarter of the year are Baijiu shares, including Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) . The 5 Baijiu stock week rose 4, but Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) fell 1.91% only.
The other five heavyweight stocks of e fund consumer industry fund – Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) (002714. SZ), Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) (600660. SH), Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) (002568. SZ), Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (000333. SZ), Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) (000860. SZ) – all fell, of which Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) fell by more than 5%. This has dragged down the net performance of the fund.
(21st Century Business Herald)
