Not afraid of external disturbances, today (November 29) A-Shares walked out of the independent market of first restraining and then rising. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board, and then the gem quickly became red, driving the Shanghai index upward. Near the noon, the stock index was strong sideways consolidation, and the stock index quickly fell back in the afternoon, and then gradually picked up again.
In this regard, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) pointed out that the impact of the new mutant on A-Shares is limited, which is at most a short-term “false alarm”, and the cross-year market will continue. Under China’s epidemic prevention mechanism, new overseas mutants are difficult to cause a systematic rebound of China’s epidemic situation, and have limited impact on the A-share market. Therefore, the big logic of the cross year market has not changed. If the global turmoil under the new mutant leads to short-term fluctuations of a shares, it is a buying point worth grasping.
At the same time, Anxin securities mentioned that it paid attention to the stability of performance and the certainty of high prosperity next year, and suggested to temporarily avoid some industries that may be affected by the outbreak of the epidemic. At present, the high prosperity and long track represented by “Ning combination” is mainly configured, including photovoltaic, new energy vehicles (auto parts, lithium resources, lithium batteries), CXO, military industry, etc. Continue to pay attention to the opportunities for valuation repair of food and beverage sectors. Avoid tourism, catering, aviation and other industries that may be affected by the outbreak of the epidemic.
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1, Baijiu
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) points out that the current wholesale price of Sanmao fluctuates around 2690 yuan, the inventory is very low, and the annual delivery will be completed around the end of the month; The price of puwu and Guojiao remained stable. At present, the market has price increase expectations for some wine enterprises. From the perspective of long-term sustainable development, the price increase still needs to be matched with channel control and brand strength. It is suggested to pay attention to the channel feedback after the price increase of puwu. The short-term proposal also focuses on the catalytic factors such as the good start of the Spring Festival. High end leaders and sub high-end reform targets with strong performance certainty are still recommended in the medium and long term.
Huachang Securities said that it should emphasize the Baijiu market, and choose the top end to accelerate Moutai and strong potential Fen Liquor, and recommend the theme of reform in the Yanghe River. The market demand for Baijiu in the next year is still controversial, but from the market performance, Baijiu terminal demand is stronger, and the channel is relatively healthy. The report has the spare power, and Q1 has more strong foundation than the other. Short term recommendations should be emphasized at the end of the year, including the dealer conference, the disclosure of Baijiu enterprises’ business plan in the coming year, and the preparation for the peak season.
Kaiyuan securities mentioned that looking forward to 2022, the background environment is that economic activities are still slowly recovering in the later stage of the epidemic. After the economic fluctuation in 2021 and the weakening of consumption, from the perspective of fundamentals, most sub industries should be in the process of recovery and improvement in 2022; From the perspective of valuation, food and beverage has entered a reasonable range. The valuation is stable in 2022, and the sector still needs to return to the main line of performance growth. We choose the four main lines of the 2022 food and beverage trading strategy: first, we should focus on the main line of consumption upgrading and layout baijiu. Second, pay attention to the theme of price transmission and layout price increasing varieties; Third, pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by Rural Revitalization under the background of common prosperity. Fourth, in 2021, some industries are in business difficulties due to the impact of base, epidemic situation and channel structure transformation. A reversal is expected in 2022, focusing on opportunities in condiment, quick-frozen and snack food industries.
II. Lithium battery
Open source securities mentioned that the next year is the third stage of upward cycle investment in new energy vehicles. The high-quality supply end of the lithium battery industry chain is expected to achieve a breakthrough, and the investment opportunities are reflected in the following aspects. (1) High barriers to long-term growth: batteries, diaphragms, negative electrodes, etc; Among them, the battery link will benefit from the loosening of upstream price margin, the improvement of downstream penetration and product innovation in the next year, which is in a good investment period. (2) Post cycle direction of prosperity improvement in 2022: energy storage, equipment, auxiliary materials, etc; Among them, the energy storage industry chain benefits from carbon neutralization and the rigid demand for clean energy. (3) New technologies are expected to achieve breakthroughs: 4680 battery, lifsi, etc; The product innovation led by these leading companies is expected to bring continuous cost reduction and safety improvement, so as to further open the future growth space of lithium batteries.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) pointed out that the supply of lithium salt contracted in winter, but the demand continued to rise and the inventory was low, causing all parties to compete for supply. In winter, the output of salt lake at the supply side shrinks to a certain extent, and there is little supply increment; However, on the demand side, on the one hand, the lithium battery production schedule increases month by month, and the battery factory and midstream material factory gradually prepare goods before the year. On the other hand, the regional power restriction is gradually alleviated, and the demand is further released; At the same time, with the continuous rise of lithium price and the determination of storage nature since this year, the lithium salt inventory of traders and material factories has been gradually consumed, and the inventory of all parties in the industry is at a low level; With the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand, the spot price continues to rise, the contract price among large factories also rises month by month, and the lithium price is still supported and rising by the relationship between supply and demand.
The agency further analyzed that the global competition for lithium resources is intense, the contradiction between supply and demand is still tense, and the strategic attribute is strengthened to be independent and controllable. Under the background of high growth of large new energy industries, the difficulty and progress of lithium resource development are difficult to match the speed and magnitude of downstream demand growth, and high-quality resources are scarce. All parties in the industrial chain continue to increase the layout of lithium resources and smelters around the world. French Eichmann group and Qingshan industry restart the construction of lithium extraction plant in Argentina’s centenario ratones Salt Lake, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) compete for the assets of Millennium lithium Argentina salt lake. The global competition for resources is intense, reflecting the scarcity and importance of lithium resources. Independent control of lithium resources is the strategic demand of the new energy industry chain.
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