Today (November 30), the three major A-share indexes opened higher. At the beginning of the session, there were signs of stock index differentiation. The gem index plunged back rapidly, while the Shanghai index rose rapidly after consolidation, and then weakened with the gem index. Fortunately, it stabilized in time and maintained the shock consolidation pattern. From the disk point of view, the light index and heavy stocks continued, the performance of digital currency, automobile, hydrogen energy, military industry and other sectors was outstanding, and the local profit-making effect still existed.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that the emergence of the new variant of covid-19 has limited negative impact on a shares, and may even drive the amplification of volume and energy, drive the early start of the cross-year market, and bring trend market opportunities to some sectors of the market.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[Topic 1] digital currency
Previously, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) mentioned that under the joint promotion of Internet industry policy and payment industry policy, head Payment institutions have been accelerating the interconnection of payment services since September. At present, the interconnection process presents the characteristics of point and area, from surrounding scenes to core scenes, and from offline to online.
The agency further analyzed that whether the barcode “mutual recognition and mutual scanning” of offline and head Payment institutions or the jump call of online payment scenarios will help UnionPay and commercial banks intervene in the business related to the unique scenarios of past payment institutions, and the number, frequency and stickiness of APP customers are expected to be improved. In addition, with the promotion of digital RMB, the function of digital RMB wallet is expected to enable relevant banks to enhance their participation in micro payment scenarios.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) talking about digital currency, bank it leadership + great transformation I: previously, the dominant power in the payment field has always been controlled by third-party payment institutions and other Internet manufacturers. However, with the implementation of DCEP, the banking system is expected to return to the dominant position, and the banking technology subsidiaries and Bank IT manufacturers are expected to assist in scene operation. Change 2: the new pattern does not completely subvert the business model of the payment industry, but the new payment terminals have the need for upgrading, and the large-scale transformation of intelligent POS machines and ATMs bear the brunt.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that with the acceleration of the promotion of digital currency and the approach of the time point of full implementation, various preparations and infrastructure upgrading will be gradually accelerated, and companies in relevant industrial chains will usher in the opportunity of accelerated development. It is suggested to pay attention to three main investment lines.
The first main line suggests paying attention to the payment hardware market. The promotion of digital currency and the implementation of barcode payment supervision and other policies will drive the iterative upgrading of payment hardware, and the suppliers of intelligent payment equipment at the receiving end and physical hardware wallet at the paying end will benefit. The second main line suggests paying attention to the bank it upgrading market. Banks play a great role in the issuance and trading of digital RMB. Due to their legal currency positioning, banks need to upgrade their systems to meet the trading needs of digital currency in the future.
The third main line suggests paying attention to the promotion and scenario service companies serving digital RMB. Specifically, third-party payment services and acquiring companies will also benefit from the implementation of digital currency.
[Topic 2] automobile
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned that there are two core supporting logic of this round of automobile market: 1) the chip alleviates the demand for replenishment in the passenger car industry, and 2021q4-2022q3 enters the cycle of continuous improvement of production and sales data year-on-year. 2) With the opening of Guangzhou auto show, a new round of new cars of independent brands will be intensively listed, and the market share of independent brands will be improved with higher quality in 2022.
Wanlian Securities said that with the gradual easing of the shortage of automobile chips and the recovery of consumer demand at the end of the year, it is expected that the automobile production and sales volume will further increase in the fourth quarter. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities for the expected improvement of performance brought by high-quality automobile parts suppliers with the recovery of downstream vehicle sales and the decline of raw material prices.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) pointed out that the parts sector faced double killing of volume and profit in the first three quarters of this year. The batch sales of downstream main engine plants were affected by the “lack of core”, the cost side was under pressure due to the price rise of bulk, raw materials and freight, and the profitability of the parts sector hit the bottom in Q3. We believe that in the future, with the recovery of downstream prosperity, the industry will enter the replenishment cycle, the capacity utilization rate will rise, and the costs of raw materials and freight will decline. The performance flexibility of parts enterprises with large operating leverage will be greater, and the sector is expected to usher in a new era.
In addition, the agency believes that with the reshaping of the downstream vehicle industry, domestic parts have also ushered in the best era, mainly for the following three reasons: ① following the rise of independent brand vehicle enterprises; ② In the past, the track that failed to achieve import substitution ushered in a breakthrough, and the track substitution that has achieved a breakthrough accelerated; ③ For the transformation of electric vehicles, domestic enterprises are well prepared, and high-quality enterprises in the electric vehicle industry chain bloom.
[Topic 3] hydrogen energy
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities mentioned that on November 8, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the opinions on deepening the battle of pollution prevention and control. The opinions pointed out from many aspects that we should further standardize the pollution control of traditional diesel trucks and continue to promote the use of hydrogen energy vehicles. We believe that the opinions focus on promoting the hydrogen energy of trucks and passenger vehicles, which is in line with the actual development trend of the industry and is conducive to the industrial chain related to hydrogen energy.
The agency further analyzed that under the background of “carbon neutralization” and vigorously developing hydrogen energy, we expect that the market scale of hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars is expected to exceed 160 billion yuan from 2021 to 2025, and passenger cars and heavy trucks are expected to remain the main models in the medium and short term. This opinion focuses on the hydrogen energy of freight vehicles, public transport and official vehicles, which is in line with the actual development trend of the industry. This opinion focuses on the pollution control of diesel freight vehicles (engines), hydrogen energy generation of freight vehicles, hydrogen energy generation of public transport and official vehicles. We suggest that we continue to focus on the leader of heavy truck vehicles and parts, the leader of hydrogen energy trucks Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , the leader of hydrogen energy passenger vehicles Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) , Beiqi Foton Motor Co.Ltd(600166) and the Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) with relatively perfect layout of hydrogen energy passenger vehicles.
Dongguan Securities pointed out that fuel cell vehicles are one of the important directions of new energy vehicles. China’s fuel cell vehicle industry is brewing a new round of development. In recent years, the attention of national policies to fuel cell vehicles has increased rapidly, giving hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry a higher strategic position. According to the plan of energy saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap 2.0, by 2025, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will reach about 100000 and the number of hydrogen refueling stations will reach more than 1000; By 2035, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will reach about 1 million, and the number of hydrogen refueling stations will reach more than 5000.
Dongguan securities also mentioned that it is suggested to focus on investment opportunities in the core links of the hydrogen fuel cell industry chain. Under the guidance of China’s carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutralization in 2060, the transformation of energy structure and the development of new energy vehicles are the only way. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is one of the important technical routes of new energy vehicles. In recent years, with the strong support of national policies, the hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle industry has ushered in major development opportunities, and the market attention of major enterprises in the industrial chain is expected to gradually increase.
[theme 4] military industry
Dongguan Securities pointed out that the recent geopolitical events are becoming more and more complicated, and the number of global military exercises is becoming more and more frequent. Only by improving their own military strength can they better cope with the increasingly complex world situation. In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the high prosperity of the industry under the demand for equipment upgrading during the 14th Five Year Plan period. At the same time, we also expect the return of funds under the acceleration of domestic substitution, and we are optimistic about the follow-up development of the aviation industry chain; On the other hand, we are optimistic about the development of Beidou industrial chain under the Internet of things and special chips.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) mentioned that we attach importance to the medium and long-term growth logic of military industry, and this round of market is far from over. On the one hand, there is a big gap between China’s national defense strength and economic strength at the present stage. China needs a large number of new weapons and equipment to make up for its military shortcomings, and the national defense investment is expected to continue to grow. On the other hand, advanced military technology has spillover characteristics. The military technology incubated by military enterprises has great civil value and can be extended to many industries such as semiconductors, civil aviation, commercial aerospace, new energy, consumer electronics, smart cars and smart homes. There is a huge market space for both military and civil uses. Finally, in recent years, conflicts continue in some parts of the world, countries with weak military industry have strong demand for military trade products, China has a complete military scientific research and production system, excellent performance and competitiveness of military trade products, and its share in the international military trade market is expected to continue to increase. The military industry has a broad market space, and the super military industry is at the right time.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) believes that the growth rate of the military industry is second to none, with outstanding growth compared with other industries. In particular, 2021-2023 is the key to speed up the industry. The compound growth rate is expected to exceed 30%, and the growth rate of subdivided fields is higher. On the valuation side, the CSI military industry index is at the 54.55% quantile in the past five years. On the whole, the military industry has many investment opportunities in aviation, missiles, informatization and other fields, and still has high medium and long-term investment value.
