Today (November 30), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock pattern as a whole. The three major stock indexes opened higher all over the board. At the beginning of the session, the stock index was differentiated. The Shanghai index was relatively strong in the morning, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the gem index opened higher and went lower; In the afternoon, the stock index accelerated its adjustment and rebounded slightly near the end of the trading day. The Shanghai index barely turned red. The gem index and Shenzhen Composite Index regretted to close down, and the green market closed.
In this regard, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that towards the end of the year, all parties in the market are more cautious. It is suggested that investors should pay attention to the policy and capital aspects and make balanced allocation at the same time. Whether the stock index can break through the market situation and rise again in the future still needs external forces and the continuous promotion of leading hot spots.
At the same time, Guosheng Securities pointed out that looking back on the moments of market panic caused by the epidemic before, it often becomes a good opportunity for phased allocation of funds. With the prominent toughness of Chinese high-quality enterprises, the attraction of Chinese assets to overseas investors will also be enhanced. With the expectation of steady growth, the loose monetary policy is expected to heat up and the cross-year market is expected to unfold slowly, The valuation of undervalued sector may be repaired or become the main feature of the market. In terms of investment, it is recommended to maintain the balanced allocation of growth and value.
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I. military industry
Dongguan Securities pointed out that the recent geopolitical events are becoming more and more complicated, and the number of global military exercises is becoming more and more frequent. Only by improving their own military strength can they better cope with the increasingly complex world situation. In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the high prosperity of the industry under the demand for equipment upgrading during the 14th Five Year Plan period. At the same time, we also expect the return of funds under the acceleration of domestic substitution, and we are optimistic about the follow-up development of the aviation industry chain; On the other hand, we are optimistic about the development of Beidou industrial chain under the Internet of things and special chips.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) mentioned that we attach importance to the medium and long-term growth logic of military industry, and this round of market is far from over. On the one hand, there is a big gap between China’s national defense strength and economic strength at the present stage. China needs a large number of new weapons and equipment to make up for its military shortcomings, and the national defense investment is expected to continue to grow. On the other hand, advanced military technology has spillover characteristics. The military technology incubated by military enterprises has great civil value and can be extended to many industries such as semiconductors, civil aviation, commercial aerospace, new energy, consumer electronics, smart cars and smart homes. There is a huge market space for both military and civil uses. Finally, in recent years, conflicts continue in some parts of the world, countries with weak military industry have strong demand for military trade products, China has a complete military scientific research and production system, excellent performance and competitiveness of military trade products, and its share in the international military trade market is expected to continue to increase. The military industry has a broad market space, and the super military industry is at the right time.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities believes that the prosperity can be expected to continue to improve, and it is recommended to actively increase positions. In the short term, first of all, the performance of the third quarterly report of the military industry is still beautiful, and the performance growth in relevant sub fields is basically in line with expectations; Secondly, tensions in the surrounding areas are escalating, market expectations are further narrowed, and investment risk appetite is expected to improve; Thirdly, the valuation quantile is about 65%, and the lifting limit is far from coming. In the medium term, the removal of capacity bottlenecks will help the industry continue to improve its prosperity, and the rapid growth in the next three years is still expected. In the long run, the Centennial goal of building the army is nearly late, and the “Centennial change” accelerates the development of the industry, which is expected to welcome the golden age.
2、 medicine
Open source Securities pointed out that on November 11, 2021, covid-19 virus B.1 The 1.529 mutant (Omicron) was found in southern Africa, then quickly spread in Gauteng Province, South Africa, and successively appeared in many regions on three continents. At present, it has been upgraded to VOC level by who. The changes of pathogenicity, infectivity and immune escape of Omicron virus still need to be evaluated by subsequent in vitro experimental data, and the impact on the existing epidemic prevention measures has become the focus of attention. It is suggested to pay attention to: (1) vaccine sector: Based on the changes of infectivity and immune escape, the new strain Omicron may promote the global renewal of the new strain vaccine and the promotion of needle reinforcement. Nucleic acid vaccine has the advantage of research and development speed and has the ability of rapid response to the research and development of mutant vaccine. (2) Epidemic prevention materials: the duration of the global covid-19 pandemic may be prolonged, and the demand for epidemic prevention materials is expected to return to a high level. (3) Covid-19 detection: the duration of the global covid-19 pandemic may be prolonged, and the demand for covid-19 detection outside China is expected to remain high for a long time.
Donghai Securities said that in the short term, the market is expected to gradually return to rationality. On the premise that the prosperity of the industry has not changed, it is firmly optimistic about the target with high-quality track and strong moat; In the case of intensified market shock, we suggest to adopt a prudent investment strategy. At present, the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is about 34.6 times, which is in a relatively reasonable range. The pharmaceutical sector is highly defensive, and the pharmaceutical sector still has the advantage of high cost performance.
In addition, for the traditional Chinese medicine industry, Xiangcai securities mentioned that from the perspective of policy, the traditional Chinese medicine industry is expected to usher in greater policy support space than in the past. In terms of performance, since 2021, the revenue and net profit of the traditional Chinese medicine industry have continued to improve, and the marginal improvement trend is expected to continue. From the perspective of valuation, the traditional Chinese medicine industry has obvious absolute valuation advantages over other sub industries. Therefore, “frequent favorable policies + industrial chain extension highlighting consumption attributes + absolute valuation advantages” constitute investment opportunities in the traditional Chinese medicine industry.
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