Today (December 1), the three major A-share indexes opened low. After the shock consolidation at the beginning of the session, the Shanghai index once rose and turned red, and then fell rapidly. The gem index showed a pulse downward. On the whole, the pattern of strong and weak Shanghai is obvious. From the disk point of view, the rise and fall of the industry and concept sectors are different, led by the rise of tobacco, papermaking and other targets, the rise of hydrogen energy continues, coal and natural gas also perform prominently, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
YueKai Securities said that it is expected that the market will probably remain volatile in the short term, and it is recommended that investors pay attention to structural opportunities. In the future, we will pay attention to the impact of the mutated virus. China's "rapid clearing" epidemic prevention control mode is conducive to maintaining a good state and has little impact on China's economy and policies; If the impact of the mutant virus exceeds expectations, it may slow down the tightening pace of overseas monetary policy, and China's supply chain advantage will be highlighted again.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme I] tobacco
Previously, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) mentioned that e-cigarettes were officially incorporated into the tobacco system supervision and legalization of identity. On November 26, 2021, the State Council officially issued the decision on Amending the regulations for the implementation of the tobacco monopoly law of the people's Republic of China, adding a new article that "e-cigarettes and other new tobacco products shall be implemented with reference to the relevant provisions on cigarettes in these Regulations", and e-cigarettes have been officially incorporated into the supervision of the tobacco system. We believe that: (1) e-cigarette has a formal identity and the industry has entered the stage of orderly supervision; (2) E-cigarettes and other new types of tobacco are included in the sales system of China tobacco, and policies and norms are carried out along the direction of strengthening China Tobacco supervision; (3) After being incorporated into tobacco management, China tobacco pipe has two ends of nicotine and tobacco sales, and continues to pay attention to the promotion of tax and other detailed rules; (4) After the management department is determined, various standards, such as the national standard of electronic cigarettes, production standards, sales channels and other detailed rules will be gradually determined; (5) Benefit manufacturers with high production standards, high-tech reserves and high capital reserves.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said that on November 30, the national standard information public service platform released the draft for comments of the national standard plan e-cigarette, which is a further promotion after entering the drafting stage on November 18, clarifying the definition, standards, technology and other details of e-cigarette products, and standardizing the e-cigarette industry on the product side, We believe that the certainty of the long-term healthy growth of e-cigarettes under China's norms has been strengthened, and we continue to be optimistic about the subsequent improvement of the share of leading brands.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) pointed out that the draft of the national standard is friendly to the e-cigarette industry. Although it stipulates restrictions on the nicotine content, which will reduce the attraction of e-cigarettes to mature smokers, given that the main consumers of e-cigarettes in China are young groups, we believe that reducing the nicotine content of e-cigarettes has little impact on the mainstream consumers of e-cigarettes in China, It will also reduce social concerns about the disadvantages of the development of e-cigarette industry and reduce the pressure of public opinion. At the same time, further standardizing the hardware standards will help accelerate the concentration of China's e-cigarette set and cigarette bomb manufacturing links to head enterprises.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that with the introduction of the draft of the national standard for electronic cigarettes, we expect relevant policy-making to enter an accelerated period. In terms of investment suggestions, the content of the national standard of e-cigarette meets our expectations. With the clarification of the regulatory body, we believe that the formulation of regulatory policies for the e-cigarette industry is expected to accelerate, and the subsequent industries are expected to continue to expand under standardized management. []
[Topic 2] papermaking
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) according to the analysis, from a fundamental point of view, cultural paper has entered the bidding and production stage of teaching auxiliary teaching materials in the spring of 2022, and the demand margin has improved. At the same time, due to the initial bad basically exhausted, with the reduction of imported paper, the demand margin has improved and the cost has been gradually alleviated.
CITIC futures said that there is no deterministic demand driven growth of cultural paper in 2022, but due to the great impact in 2021, the most common next year may be the normal growth of demand. At the same time, considering the current high inventory of cultural paper, it is expected that the second half of the year will be better than the first half of the year.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that the downstream demand of wood pulp was low, and the packaging paper grew steadily under the waste prohibition order. The demand for wood pulp has not improved, the demand for cultural paper has declined significantly year-on-year, and the paper price has remained depressed; Under the waste prohibition order, the demand for packaging paper has increased steadily since April 2021, and the proportion of imports has decreased, supporting the demand for domestic paper. However, the industrial chain is not willing to store goods, so it is difficult to have a large market. In 2022, it is expected to usher in a new papermaking market after inventory digestion and demand repair.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) mentioned that at present, the prices of most kinds of paper are low, among which the prices of cultural paper and white cardboard are at the bottom. We believe that there may be a tight balance between supply and demand in the paper industry. The "double control" policy helps to limit production and ensure prices, enhance the willingness of downstream replenishment, and improve the supply and demand of the industry. (1) Short term: pay attention to the follow-up demand (core factors), the strength and sustainability of power restriction policy, and the progress of new capacity launch; (2) In the medium and long term, the "double control" policy helps to speed up the clearing of production capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises, make it easier for large factories to pass the approval of new projects, and further improve the industry concentration. []
[Topic 3] hydrogen energy
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities mentioned that on November 8, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the opinions on deepening the battle of pollution prevention and control. The opinions pointed out from many aspects that we should further standardize the pollution control of traditional diesel trucks and continue to promote the use of hydrogen energy vehicles. We believe that the opinions focus on promoting the hydrogen energy of trucks and passenger vehicles, which is in line with the actual development trend of the industry and is conducive to the industrial chain related to hydrogen energy.
The agency further analyzed that under the background of "carbon neutralization" and vigorously developing hydrogen energy, we expect that the market scale of hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars is expected to exceed 160 billion yuan from 2021 to 2025, and passenger cars and heavy trucks are expected to remain the main models in the medium and short term. This opinion focuses on the hydrogen energy of freight vehicles, public transport and official vehicles, which is in line with the actual development trend of the industry. This opinion focuses on the pollution control of diesel freight vehicles (engines), hydrogen energy generation of freight vehicles, hydrogen energy generation of public transport and official vehicles. We suggest that we continue to focus on the leader of heavy truck vehicles and parts, the leader of hydrogen energy trucks Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , the leader of hydrogen energy passenger vehicles Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) , Beiqi Foton Motor Co.Ltd(600166) and the Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) with relatively perfect layout of hydrogen energy passenger vehicles.
Dongguan Securities pointed out that fuel cell vehicles are one of the important directions of new energy vehicles. China's fuel cell vehicle industry is brewing a new round of development. In recent years, the attention of national policies to fuel cell vehicles has increased rapidly, giving hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry a higher strategic position. According to the plan of energy saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap 2.0, by 2025, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will reach about 100000 and the number of hydrogen refueling stations will reach more than 1000; By 2035, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will reach about 1 million, and the number of hydrogen refueling stations will reach more than 5000.
Dongguan securities also mentioned that it is suggested to focus on investment opportunities in the core links of the hydrogen fuel cell industry chain. Under the guidance of China's carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutralization in 2060, the transformation of energy structure and the development of new energy vehicles are the only way. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is one of the important technical routes of new energy vehicles. In recent years, with the strong support of national policies, the hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle industry has ushered in major development opportunities, and the market attention of major enterprises in the industrial chain is expected to gradually increase. []
[Topic 4] coal
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) mentioned that since mid October, coal price supervision and intervention policies are still advancing, putting pressure on market sentiment. However, judging from the current coal price expectation, Q4 and next year's performance of coal enterprises are still expected to remain high. With the gradual implementation of the policy, the market's negative expectation or basic digestion of price limit, the marginal relaxation of the policy of the real estate industry chain, the further release of demand in the peak season in December and the expectation of dividends from leading enterprises all contribute to the recovery of market sentiment, which is expected to become a catalyst for valuation repair after the sharp decline of the coal sector.
Kaiyuan Securities said that under the expectation of cold winter, the coal consumption demand will rise rapidly this winter and next spring, and the terminal replenishment demand may continue to be strong throughout the peak season; On the supply side, with the implementation of nuclear capacity increase, the production area will accelerate the release of increment, and the supply tension will be alleviated. In terms of coal price, the national development and Reform Commission recently held a symposium to study and improve the coal price formation mechanism, stressed the great significance of establishing a coal price range regulation mechanism, guided the coal price to operate in a reasonable range, and made the coal price truly reflect the fundamentals of market supply and demand. It is expected that the intervention and regulation of coal prices by policies in the future will be continued, and it may be difficult for coal prices to rise or fall sharply. At the same time, we may pay more attention to the definition of a reasonable range. In addition, the national coal Fair will be held in early December, so we need to pay attention to the signing of the 2022 long-term association and the changes in the pricing mechanism of the long-term association.
The agency further analyzed that the current coal stocks are basically at the bottom. With the stabilization of the coal price correction policy, the risk factors that the pit mouth exceeds the expected price limit in the early stage have been basically released, and the coal stocks will return to the main investment line supported by performance. On the basis of stable performance, the characteristics of undervaluation are highlighted again. At the same time, under the background of double carbon, the coal supply is expected to peak ahead of demand, Under the expectation of medium and long-term tight supply normalization, the value of coal enterprises needs to be revalued. []
