Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : risks in demand, price and policy are fully released optimistic about the rebound of coal plate
Recently, we believe that the risk release in terms of demand, price and policy is relatively sufficient, and we are optimistic about the rebound of the sector: first, the daily consumption in the early stage has not risen. It is expected that it is mainly related to the poor performance of the demand of coal consuming industries related to real estate (steel, cement, etc., accounting for about 30% of the coal demand). With the marginal loosening of real estate policy, the risk release at the demand side is relatively sufficient.
Second, although China’s daily coal output exceeds 12 million tons / day (reduce maintenance and increase production during supply guarantee period), at present, the level of available days of coal inventory is relatively reasonable. With the continuous improvement of heating demand in peak season, the production and sales situation is better, and the price of power coal is gradually stable.
Third, on November 17, the national Standing Committee supported the establishment of a special refinancing of 200 billion yuan to support the clean and efficient utilization of coal, indicating that the policy recognizes and supports the main energy status of coal, which is conducive to promoting the transformation and upgrading of the coal industry and boosting the confidence of industrial chain investment. In the medium and long term, we believe that the constraints on the coal supply side are still strong. Under the background of slight annual growth in demand, coal is a scarce resource in the next few years, and the stock capacity or high profits. Now the mainstream stocks pay dividends according to 50-60%, the dividend rate of coal stocks is expected to reach the double-digit level, and the coal assets need to be repriced, Continue to be optimistic about the investment value of the sector.
Give priority to the target of high market coal proportion and flexible capacity growth, and focus on power coal stocks: Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) . Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are recommended to pay attention to: Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) . []
Guosheng Securities: stick to core assets! Optimistic about the valuation repair of high long-term association and high score red coal enterprises
For power coal: the policy forces coal to exceed the wind, and the coal price returns rationally. At present, there are many uncertain factors in the coal market, especially the policy has a great impact on the supply side and plays a leading role in the market trend. Throughout history, relevant departments have always adhered to multiple objectives in policy regulation for the coal industry (at present, we should take into account the cost of power enterprises and the profit of coal enterprises & the decline of total demand and the transformation and development of the industry & Carbon peak and high energy consuming industries). Based on the supply and demand balance sheet and policy guidance, we believe that the overall supply and demand of thermal coal will be basically balanced in 2022, and the price will fluctuate with the season, showing a situation of first restraining and then Yangge (bottoming out in the first half of the year), and the price center is about 800 yuan / ton.
For coking coal: the contradiction between supply and demand is alleviated, and import is an important variable. The most tense time point of coking coal supply and demand has passed, the gap between coking coal supply and demand has been further filled, and coking coal prices have also shown a rapid downward trend recently. In the short term, with the recovery of terminal demand of the black industrial chain, the demand for coking coal will pick up. At that time, the price of coking coal will still be strong again due to the relatively tight supply. Looking forward to 2022, based on our judgment on the balance sheet of supply and demand, there is room for increase in supply (we need to pay special attention to the recovery of imports of Mongolian coal and Australian coal. If one of them rebounds significantly, it will have a great impact on supply). The demand is basically stable, and it is difficult to copy the sharp rise trend of coking coal prices this year. At the same time, considering the role of long-term cooperative ballast, it will still strongly support the market, Its falling space is also limited, and the overall trend will be volatile. It is expected that the price center of Jingtang Port’s main coke will be 2200 ~ 2500 yuan / ton, slightly lower than this year’s level.
In terms of investment strategy, we stick to the core assets and are optimistic about the valuation and repair of high growth Association and high score red coal enterprises. The key recommendations are: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) . The transformation of traditional energy enterprises under the goal of “double carbon” is worth looking forward to, focusing on Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) (energy storage), Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) (modern coal chemical industry), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (hydrogen energy), China Xuyang group (hydrogen energy) and power investment energy (scenery). Actively layout the national reform in Shanxi, focusing on Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) with expected asset injection. []
Huajin Securities: pessimistic expectations eliminated coal sector valuation continued to repair
The price of power coal is stable and the fundamentals are supported. Pessimistic expectations were eliminated and the valuation of the sector continued to repair. Optimistic about Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) (the rise in global coal prices benefits both Chinese and overseas production capacity; coal and coal chemical industry keep pace; the performance is flexible and has high dividend ability), Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) (the power coal leader with the advantages of scale and endowment; strong performance certainty; high dividend) China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) (the scale of coal production capacity ranks first in the whole industry; the whole industry chain is perfect, and the performance is highly uncertain; it is expected to enjoy coal power under the background of double carbon, double control and double limit). []
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : the demand for winter storage is increasing the coal price is still supported
Power coal: in terms of supply, the production of coal mines in the producing area is active, the coal mines start well, and the overall supply is stable. In terms of demand, the temperature in South China has decreased, and the daily consumption of terminal power plants has increased, releasing more demand for electric coal. In addition, the ports around the Bohai Sea encountered continuous fog and strong wind closure weather, and many ports even had the phenomenon of zero single shift loading, which hindered the ship turnover. In addition, due to the expected impact of strong cold air, the daily consumption of some power plants increased, the enthusiasm for procurement and transportation increased, and the phenomenon of ships and other goods still existed. On the whole, at present, the production side is in place to increase production and ensure supply, the supply side is increasing, the inventory of the port power plant is increasing, at the same time, there is strong cold air expectation at the end of the month, the peak season of coal consumption at the demand side is about to start, the daily consumption of the power plant will continue to rise, some customers without guaranteed supply and cement chemical industry still have the demand for replenishment, and the structural coal shortage of the port is difficult to improve, and the coal price is still supported.
Coking coal: in terms of supply, coal mines in producing areas continued to reduce production. Considering safety production, coking coal supply is still expected to tighten in December. In terms of demand, the storage of raw coal in the coking plant is at a very low level, and the demand space for winter storage is large. On the whole, with winter storage and replenishment on the agenda and supply tightening expectations, the coking coal market has basically bottomed out. It is expected that the short-term coking coal price is expected to operate stably.
Coke: in terms of supply, the production of coke enterprises continues the early operation level, and the coke supply is still low. In terms of demand, coke demand recovered slightly. However, steel mills continued to limit production in a wide range, and the operating rate of blast furnace continued to fall slightly. Overall, the fundamentals of the coke market have improved slightly, but considering that the current supply is still tight and the demand side is relatively weak, it is expected that the short-term coke price may be weak. []
open source Securities: at present, coal stocks are basically at the bottom with stable performance and high dividend exposure
Under the expectation of cold winter, the coal consumption demand will rise rapidly this winter and next spring, and the terminal replenishment demand may continue to be strong throughout the peak season; On the supply side, with the implementation of nuclear capacity increase, the production area will accelerate the release of increment, and the supply tension will be alleviated. In terms of coal price, the national development and Reform Commission recently held a symposium to study and improve the coal price formation mechanism, stressed the great significance of establishing a coal price range regulation mechanism, guided the coal price to operate in a reasonable range, and made the coal price truly reflect the fundamentals of market supply and demand. It is expected that the intervention and regulation of coal prices by policies in the future will be continued, and it may be difficult for coal prices to rise or fall sharply. At the same time, we may pay more attention to the definition of a reasonable range. In addition, the national coal Fair will be held in early December, so we need to pay attention to the signing of the 2022 long-term association and the changes in the pricing mechanism of the long-term association.
We believe that the current coal stocks are basically at the bottom. With the stabilization of the coal price correction policy, the risk factors that the pit mouth exceeds the expected price limit in the early stage have been basically released. The coal stocks will return to the main line of investment supported by performance, and the undervaluation feature is highlighted again on the basis of stable performance. At the same time, under the background of double carbon, the coal supply is expected to peak ahead of demand, Under the expectation of medium and long-term tight supply normalization, the value of coal enterprises needs to be revalued. We are still optimistic about investment opportunities in coal stocks. Steady performance and high dividend benefit targets: Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ; Objects with expected growth benefits: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) ; Target beneficiaries of Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) Transformation: Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , power investment energy, Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group (H shares); Object of benefit from debt restructuring: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) . []
Ping An Securities: pay attention to coal mine intelligent software and hardware companies and relevant enterprises for the development and utilization of coalbed methane
China’s clean and efficient coal utilization technology is at the leading level in the world. The whole process of clean and efficient utilization of coal includes the whole process of coal production, processing, transportation and utilization, and the relevant technologies are at the global leading level as a whole. Coal utilization mainly includes coal-fired power generation, steel and chemical industry. Coal power is the main utilization direction of China’s coal, and the proportion of coal for power generation accounts for about 50% of the total coal consumption. The gradual maturity and commercial application of modern coal chemical technology will be of great significance to solve the oil and gas safety problems that China has been facing, and it is an important direction of future development.
In terms of investment suggestions, under the “3060” double carbon goal, traditional energy is the main source of carbon emissions. Before new energy can not be completely replaced, the clean and efficient utilization of traditional energy is an important way to promote carbon emission reduction. From the perspective of special fund support, it is suggested to pay attention to coal mine intelligent software and hardware companies, relevant companies focusing on industrial environmental protection governance and relevant companies for CBM development and utilization. []
Cinda Securities: look at the coal sector in an all-round way! Continue to suggest paying attention to the historic allocation opportunity of coal
At present, it is in the early and middle stage of a new round of upward cycle of coal economy, and the fundamentals, policies and companies resonate. At this stage, the allocation of coal plate is at the right time. At present, China’s energy consumption is still in the growth period. With the limited output of wind, water and nuclear power, part of the increase of energy consumption still depends on coal. During the “14th five year plan” period, coal consumption maintained a steady growth.
Based on the above, we take a comprehensive view of the coal sector and continue to suggest paying attention to the historic allocation opportunities of coal. It is suggested to pay attention to three main investment lines: first, underestimated value and high dividend thermal coal leader Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Second, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) with both scarcity of resources and significant growth; Third, the Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) with great extension expansion potential brought by the improvement of asset securitization rate of state-owned coal group. []
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : against the background of improved sentiment it is expected that the coal sector will experience a rebound of valuation repair
Although the price limit policy is still being implemented, the performance of listed companies can still be stable at a high level under the current price system. After the substantial adjustment of the stock price in the early stage, the leading companies have valuation attraction. Under the background of improved sentiment, we expect the sector to experience a rebound in valuation repair during the year.
Since mid October, coal price supervision and intervention policies have been continuously promoted, putting pressure on market sentiment. However, judging from the current coal price expectation, Q4 and next year’s performance of coal enterprises are still expected to remain high. With the gradual implementation of the policy, the market’s negative expectation or basic digestion of price limit, the marginal relaxation of the policy of the real estate industry chain, the further release of demand in the peak season in December and the expectation of dividends from leading enterprises all contribute to the recovery of market sentiment, which is expected to become a catalyst for valuation repair after the sharp decline of the coal sector. We recommend Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) with good performance and attractive valuation.
In addition, in 2022 or the year when the coal price returns to the medium-term equilibrium price, after the substantial growth of demand and the liberalization of supply in 2021, the industrial power and real estate still support the coal demand from the effect of policy relaxation. The industry may show a pattern of both supply and demand, but it is expected to return to the balance of supply and demand from extreme supply tension. In this process, In 2022, the average price of thermal coal may fall back to the level of 850 ~ 900 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year decrease of about 10%, but it will remain high. The long-term association price of listed companies may remain stable, superimposed with the expectation of output growth, and the performance is not expected to decline significantly.
