Today (December 2), the three major A-share stock indexes opened low. After the weak shock at the beginning of the session, the stock index quickly rose and turned red. Unfortunately, the stock index fell rapidly again. After turning green one after another, the stock index plunged further, the gem index and the Shenzhen Composite index maintained a low consolidation, while the Shanghai index remained relatively stable. From the disk point of view, the light index heavy stock market continues, the "flag bearer" brokerage stocks change frequently, and the "drink and take medicine to buy pork" market makes a comeback. The cement, automobile, education and other sectors also perform well, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
BOC strategy points out that entering the market in December and entering the configuration market next year, the implementation of policy setting will break the situation of no main line in the current market. At present, under the stable credit expectation, there may be a phased market in the blue chip sector. In terms of industry allocation, the trend of new energy remained unchanged, the undervalued blue chip rebounded periodically, and the growth gradually entered the left allocation range.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme I] aquaculture
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) pointed out that in the short term, with the rise of demand in the peak consumption season, farmers expect to increase the price in the future market and are reluctant to sell. Q4 pig price has strong support, and the periodic losses of enterprises are expected to be repaired to some extent. Judging from the cycle, the inflection point of the cycle reversal still needs to wait for the pace of capacity removal. After the recent rebound in pig prices, the price of piglets rebounded, and the phenomenon of feeding piglets increased. After the peak consumption season, the price of pigs may be adjusted again. In the near future, we still need to continue to pay attention to the rhythm of column filling, non plague, diarrhea and other epidemics that may break out under cold winter weather, resulting in the passive de production of the industry and the accelerated expected improvement of farmers' active de production after the Spring Festival, resulting in the early emergence of the inflection point of cycle reversal. In the downward phase of the cycle, it is recommended to pay attention to breeding enterprises with obvious advantages in cost control.
At the current time point, the industry is in the key stage of excess capacity removal. For the current contradiction in the pig market, open source Securities believes that: (1) the trend of pig price in 2021q4 will deviate from the de production capacity; (2) 2022hi industry will enter the game stage of capacity elimination, and the clearing of cost inferior capacity will be accelerated; (3) High breeding costs may become another thrust to accelerate the elimination of inferior production capacity. Key recommendation, leading industry cost Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) ; The recovery of production indicators was accelerated, the cost decreased rapidly Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , and the benefit targets: Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) . We expect that in the first half of 2022, the deregulation of industrial capacity may accelerate, and the pig cycle is expected to reverse in the second half of 2022.
According to China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities, the bottom area grasps the reversal elasticity. Based on the time and range of breeding loss, the month on month trend of fertile sows, the price trend of piglets and sows, we believe that the second bottom is about 22q3, which does not rule out the possibility of advance. The sub optimal time point of individual stock layout is 22q1 after the current rebound and before the second bottom, on the premise that it is based on the dynamic evaluation after pig price tracking. []
[theme two] Baijiu
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) points out that the current wholesale price of Sanmao fluctuates around 2690 yuan, the inventory is very low, and the annual delivery will be completed around the end of the month; The price of puwu and Guojiao remained stable. At present, the market has price increase expectations for some wine enterprises. From the perspective of long-term sustainable development, the price increase still needs to be matched with channel control and brand strength. It is suggested to pay attention to the channel feedback after the price increase of puwu. The short-term proposal also focuses on the catalytic factors such as the good start of the Spring Festival. High end leaders and sub high-end reform targets with strong performance certainty are still recommended in the medium and long term.
Huachang Securities said that it should emphasize the Baijiu market, and choose the top end to accelerate Moutai and strong potential Fen Liquor, and recommend the theme of reform in the Yanghe River. The market demand for Baijiu in the next year is still controversial, but from the market performance, Baijiu terminal demand is stronger, and the channel is relatively healthy. The report has the spare power, and Q1 has more strong foundation than the other. Short term recommendations should be emphasized at the end of the year, including the dealer conference, the disclosure of Baijiu enterprises' business plan in the coming year, and the preparation for the peak season.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) mentioned that at present, maowulu is expected to complete the annual business objectives and enter the state of digesting inventory. It is expected that the Spring Festival will start well with a high probability of realization. Baijiu Baijiu, Baijiu, the high-end Baijiu, has strong barriers, business model has superiority, and the performance is expected to be more robust in 2022. The current valuation is in a reasonable position, and the market will be brought to the market in the short term or enjoy the valuation switch. In the medium term, the capital will be the first choice for the high consumption liquor. In the long run, the high-end liquor price will remain unchanged, but only in the short term, it will be suppressed by external factors. The core logic remains unchanged, and it is still a long-term optimistic high-quality core asset. []
[Topic 3] medical devices
Huajin Securities said that the abnormal growth caused by the epidemic disturbance in the pharmaceutical sector will subside, and the opportunities for IVD and equipment overseas markets brought by the epidemic will soon eliminate the false and preserve the true. Companies with high-quality pipelines and varieties to follow up and go to sea will enter a new stage of development. The whole pharmaceutical manufacturing industry will return to the low growth stage. The expected improvement of the epidemic situation will affect the performance of IVD, vaccine and other sectors. The launch of national talks / centralized procurement will suppress the sentiment of the sector. In the short term, we think the pharmaceutical sector will still find a balance between shock and emotional downturn.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) mentioned that in the post epidemic era, covid-19 epidemic may become a new normal, and "vaccine + therapeutic drugs" will become covid-19 prevention and control strategy. The epidemic has had a far-reaching impact on the policies of the pharmaceutical industry. In order to win in the competition and maximize the enterprise value, enterprises have also carried out diversified strategic upgrading and response. However, in the long run, the underlying logic of medical and health investment is still the acceleration of the aging trend of population structure, the rapid development of medical technology and the increase of medical and health investment. We believe that clarifying the changes and invariance in pharmaceutical investment, conforming to the transformation and challenges in the process of industry reform, based on China's macro trends such as population structure and economic development, and encouraging innovation, domestic substitution and internationalization in the pharmaceutical and health industry are the key investment points of the industry.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) pointed out that in the long run, the policy's encouragement of innovative products and the suppression of homogeneous products are bound to lead to differentiation due to the differences in the competitiveness of their own products. The enterprise value that can provide economic, high-quality and efficient products will be more prominent. It is suggested to make a positive layout under the callback. We adhere to the three stock selection ideas of "innovation and empowerment, manufacturing upgrading, cost reduction and efficiency enhancement", and are optimistic that China's high-end pharmaceutical manufacturing industry will stand out in the new round of global competition. []
[Topic 4] cement
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) mentioned that the cement sector continues to be recommended: (1) the national development and Reform Commission and other five departments have issued the
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The notice stipulates that the benchmark level of comprehensive energy consumption per unit product of cement clinker is 100 kg standard coal / ton and the benchmark level is 117 kg standard coal / ton, so as to promote energy conservation and carbon reduction in the cement industry. (2) In the short term, infrastructure investment accelerated in the second half of this year, and the issuance of special bonds in 2022 is expected to provide guarantee for cement demand; In the medium and long term, under the background of carbon neutralization, relevant policies for the cement industry have been issued one after another, and the progress of supply side reform has been accelerated, which is beneficial to the leading enterprises with scale advantages, technical advantages and location advantages.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) it is considered that the demand side may shrink gradually, and the industry will focus on the opportunities brought by the change of the industry supply side under the objectives of "dual control" and "dual carbon": a) the policy requires that the proportion of benchmark capacity in 2025 will exceed 30%, and the industry's capacity of 2500t / D and below is expected to withdraw in succession in the future, and the total capacity will shrink by more than 8.6%. b) The cement industry may be incorporated into carbon trading in 2021. The transformation of carbon tax + emission reduction will aggravate the cost pressure of small enterprises, highlight the leading competitive advantage, and is expected to further expand through mergers and acquisitions, enhance the voice, and gradually raise the price center. We believe that with the improvement of the real estate financing environment and the gradual implementation of the issuance of special bonds to the physical workload, the demand side may be significantly improved in the first half of 22 years. The end of the high cement price in 2021 is expected to lead to the rise of the overall price center in 2022. At the same time, superimposed with the decline of coal price, the profitability of cement enterprises is expected to remain high. []
[ subject five ] brokerage
Open source securities mentioned that recently, market institutions have significantly increased their attention to the securities sector. Under the expansion of direct financing, the long-term logic of the industry is better. At the transaction level, the valuation and institutional allocation are still low, and have strong game attributes at the end of the year. We believe that the fundamentals and transaction levels of the sector are improving, and we are optimistic about the cross-year market opportunities of the sector. Among them, we mainly recommend the main subject of big wealth management, consider valuation switching, and the revaluation space of head companies with high contribution to wealth management and public fund-raising management profits exceeds 40%. The improvement of subsequent fund issuance, annual data disclosure of fund companies and market beta factors will become important catalysts.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) pointed out that the current securities sector has the conditions to start the market. It is expected that the tone of monetary policy will be generally loose in 2022, the roe of securities companies will continue to rise, and the industrial policy will be positive. At present, the Pb valuation of the brokerage sector is only 1.7 times, at the 33% quantile in the past decade, and there is sufficient space for valuation repair. Capital market reform is expected to catalyze the stock market of securities companies. In the medium and long term, we believe that the continuous promotion of capital market reform has maintained a high prosperity of the securities industry, and the accelerated development of wealth management and institutional business of securities companies has led to the steady improvement of roe and maintained the "optimistic" rating of the industry.
Cinda securities continues to recommend the layout of securities companies along the main line of wealth management. It believes that securities companies with real high-quality products, high-quality investment advisers and strong customer retention ability are more competitive. Their income will improve with the increase of customer assets and financial products, their profitability will continue to improve with the increase of wealth management revenue contribution, and securities companies with fast AUM growth and large volume will enjoy valuation premium. []
