Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
open source Securities: grasp the three upward cycles of this round of vehicles from the perspective of scarcity
Due to the relative shift of the focus of global industrial development and the changes of electrification and intelligence, the automotive industry is full of new opportunities. Structural changes one after another affect the pattern between vested interests and new entrants in the industry. The industrial changes between the old and the new provide opportunities for independent brand vehicle manufacturers and parts suppliers. We believe that at present, the triple upward large cycle resonance of the automobile industry is expected to continue: in the first cycle, the industry competition is in order, driving the penetration rate of new energy vehicles to continue to increase; In the second cycle, with the help of electric intelligent forward-looking layout, independent brand car enterprises have gradually increased their share in China; In the third cycle, China's independent brand auto enterprises adjusted their operation mode, accelerated their efforts in overseas markets, made breakthroughs in some emerging markets, and the global market share is expected to continue to increase. The overseas expansion of parts suppliers through overseas investment and factory establishment, global mergers and acquisitions and other means has also achieved remarkable results.
In terms of investment suggestions, scarcity is the core element to grasp this round of upward cycle. The triple cycle resonates, and the high outlook of the industry is expected to continue. The three trends with strong certainty have laid the tone of this round of upward cycle of the automotive industry. We believe that companies with scarcity competitiveness are expected to fully benefit from this round of upward cycle. In terms of vehicle manufacturers, the beneficiary targets include: Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ; In terms of parts and components, the beneficiary objects include: Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Zhejiang Wanliyang Co.Ltd(002434) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Tianrun Industry Technology Co.Ltd(002283) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Iat Automobile Technology Co.Ltd(300825) . []
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : stands at the current time point ! five golden tracks optimistic about the new energy vehicle industry chain and parts
Recently, the market has questioned whether the terminal demand in November is sustainable. We are relatively optimistic about the automotive industry. The reasons are as follows: first, the base number in the fourth quarter of 2020 is high, mainly due to the continuous decline from 2018 to 2019. In 2020, the demand is delayed to 2020h2 centralized release due to the epidemic, resulting in a high base. Due to the lack of core, the terminal discount is narrowed in 2021, and the retail data is relatively under pressure, For the total volume, we don't think there will be much room for growth in the future, but it will not decrease. According to neutral judgment, the annual sales volume of passenger cars will remain between 22-25 million.
Second, the industry is in the stage of change. Electrification and intellectualization will give birth to huge investment opportunities. The investment in the sector should be light on the total amount and heavy on the structure, and pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the new trend of industrial development under the background of electric intellectualization. In the fourth quarter strategy, we focus on the power battery, head vehicle and parts. At the current time point, we continue to be optimistic about the five golden tracks of the new energy vehicle industry chain and parts.
New energy: the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles continues to exceed expectations. Under the trend of lithium iron phosphate globalization, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery industry chain will benefit significantly, focusing on Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ;
Passenger cars: the main line of the rise of independent brands continues to be interpreted, with emphasis on Geely Automobile and Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) , Xiaopeng, ideal and Weilai.
Parts and components: focus on Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) (passenger car seat), Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) (integrated die casting), Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , and focus on Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) (lightweight), Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Cwb Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(605005) . []
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) : optimistic about the continued recovery of overall automobile demand next year force recommend three investment main line
We are optimistic that the overall demand for automobiles will continue to recover next year. On the one hand, with the gradual easing of the epidemic in Malaysia and Bosch and other manufacturers increasing investment in chip production capacity, the impact of chip shortage is continuously improving. On the other hand, the rise of raw material prices and freight is expected to usher in marginal improvement in Q4. The limited capacity of Q3 of major main engine plants is expected to be gradually released. Driven by the superposition of inventory replenishment, the automobile sector will usher in strategic allocation opportunities.
At the same time, we believe that this round of chip shortage will accelerate the reconstruction of the new pattern of the automobile market, continue to be optimistic about the accelerated rise of independent brands, and continue to be optimistic about new energy / new forces to seize the market share of traditional automobiles. We expect the year-on-year decline of Q4 China's automobile sales to narrow month by month, maintain a growth rate of about 10% month on month, and maintain a high growth rate of new energy sales. It is estimated that China's whole vehicle sales in 2021 will be about 26.5 million, with a year-on-year increase of about 5%, of which the sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 3.3 million, and the annual penetration rate is expected to reach 12.5%.
Three main lines are recommended: first, vehicle: vehicle valuation revaluation brought by Tesla wave & vehicle cycle α Opportunities, first Byd Company Limited(002594) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , recommend Geely Automobile, Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) .
Second, Tesla industrial chain: new energy vehicles are in large quantities, and the negotiated prices of core supply rise together. First Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , recommend Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , and pay attention to Huada Automotive Technology Corp.Ltd(603358) , Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co.Ltd(002824) .
Third, intelligent driving & Automotive Electronics: the change of business model brought by intelligence and the improvement of automotive electronics. Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) are recommended. []
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) : it is recommended to pay attention to of new energy industry chain and passenger car logo with frequent new car release
In the short term: in the industry, the chip supply problem is superimposed on the high base of the previous year. It is expected that the production and sales of passenger cars in the next month will still be lower than that in the same period last year. However, with the resumption of factories in Southeast Asia, the problem of chip supply will be gradually alleviated, and the backlog of consumption is expected to be reflected at the end of the year.
In terms of new energy vehicles, at present, the selection of new energy vehicles in cities with relatively complete infrastructure has a high cost performance, so the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will gradually increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the new energy industry chain and the passenger car logo with frequent new car releases, such as: Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) . []
Ping An Securities: the penetration of new energy vehicles in the global market is ushering in a new round of acceleration the industry boom is rising
With the strengthening of policy and auto enterprises, the penetration of new energy vehicles in the global market is ushering in a new round of acceleration, and the industry boom is rising. It is recommended to pay attention to the main line of new forces represented by Tesla and the catch-up process of new models such as Volkswagen, and recommend leading and second-line elastic targets. For the whole vehicle, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (2333. HK) and Geely Automobile (0175. HK) are highly recommended; In terms of battery materials, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) are recommended; In terms of motor electric control, it is recommended to pay attention to Wolong Electric Group Co.Ltd(600580) , Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) ; For lithium battery equipment, it is recommended to pay attention to Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) and Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) ; For lithium and cobalt, it is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) . []
Dongguan Securities: a comprehensive recovery of automobile is in sight, singing the main melody of electric intelligence
The overall recovery of automobile is in sight, and the rise of independent brands. Looking forward to 2022, with the marginal improvement of chip supply, automobile production and sales will return to the recovery track, manufacturers' capacity utilization will gradually increase, superimposed on the expected high price of main raw materials in the upstream, and the operating efficiency of the automobile industry is expected to rebound. In 2021, the sales volume of China's independent brands continued to grow against the trend. Chinese parts manufacturers comply with the industry trend, actively transform electric intelligence, benefit from the rise of independent brands, and are expected to build local supply chain advantages.
Under the guidance of the global carbon neutral goal, new energy vehicles are the future of the automotive industry. The penetration rate will continue to improve and the electric intelligence will accelerate, which will be the main theme of investment in the automotive industry in 2022. It is suggested to grasp three main lines: 1) parts manufacturers that are globally competitive, have entered the supply chain system of global mainstream automobile enterprises, and actively transform to electric intelligence, and whose products are recognized by the head new energy automobile enterprises will benefit from the global automobile output replenishment after the improvement of chip supply, and gradually reap the increment of electric intelligence market; 2) The U.S. Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) auto market is expected to become an unexpected variable in 2022, focusing on the target of deep penetration of Tesla, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , LG new energy and ski supply chain, as well as the midstream battery link with improved profitability; 3) The core target of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry chain with increased national attention. []
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) : new energy is expected to continue high growth focus on new technologies and Tesla industrial chain
Passenger cars focus on leading enterprises and car enterprises in the new product cycle. The sales volume of passenger car enterprises is differentiated, and the market share of car enterprises with outstanding comprehensive competitiveness and upward product cycle is expected to continue to increase. It is recommended to Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , and pay attention to Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) . In the field of commercial vehicles, driven by the elimination and renewal of national three vehicles, the treatment of overload and overrun and other factors, we expect that heavy trucks will maintain a high outlook in 2022. Compliance and the implementation of national six year plan are expected to bring both the volume and price of light trucks. We pay attention to Beiqi Foton Motor Co.Ltd(600166) , Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) .
Parts focus on product upgrading, customer expansion and undervalued repair. As car sales continue to pick up, the performance is expected to recover and form a double-click with the valuation. On the product side, pay attention to the investment opportunities that bring value improvement such as new products and product upgrading, recommend Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , and pay attention to Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Changzhou Tenglong Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603158) , etc. Client, pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by domestic substitution and globalization, recommend Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , pay attention to Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , etc. At the valuation side, recommend Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) with low valuation and stable performance, and pay attention to Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , Weifu High-Technology Group Co.Ltd(000581) .
New energy is expected to continue high growth, focusing on new technologies and Tesla industrial chain. We expect that the sales of new energy vehicles will be about 4.8 million (+ 41.2%) in 2022, and the subsequent high growth direction is clear. New technologies such as plug-in mixing, flat wire motor, 800V high-voltage platform and SiC electric control have developed rapidly, and relevant industrial chains continue to benefit. Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Volkswagen MEB and other sales are expected to grow rapidly, and the supply chain is expected to benefit. Recommend new energy leader Byd Company Limited(002594) , Tesla industrial chain Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Volkswagen MEB industrial chain Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) , and pay attention to Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) .
The rapid penetration of ADAS and intelligent cockpit, Huawei Xiaomi and others promote the rapid development of the industry. In recent years, the penetration rate of ADAS and intelligent cockpit has increased rapidly, and the mass production of L3 models is expected to drive the outbreak of lidar, domain controller and wire controlled chassis, and the relevant industrial chains will continue to benefit. Huawei, Xiaomi and other cross-border competitors are expected to accelerate the development of intelligent electric vehicles. Recommend Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , and pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) , etc. []
Bohai Securities: in the future, China's intelligent electric vehicle market will present a diversified competition pattern it is suggested to pay attention to two main lines
On the whole, the industry recovery continues to advance. With the continuous improvement of chip supply, the high price of main raw materials falls, the epidemic situation in China has been quickly and effectively controlled, and the good trend of industry recovery remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to the investment opportunities under the current industry recovery logic. In terms of new energy vehicles, under the expectation of double score assessment and declining subsidies next year, we expect the production and sales of new energy vehicles to reach a new high by the end of the year. To sum up, we are optimistic about: 1) China's entry into and binding with Tesla, Volkswagen and other international automobile enterprises, as well as companies with new car manufacturing forces and strong independent brand supply chain, such as Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ; 2) Enterprises entering the supply chain of leading battery manufacturers at home and abroad, such as Panasonic, LG Chemical, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and ferdi battery, such as Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) . In addition, we are optimistic about independent auto companies that continuously improve their technology and stand out in the fierce competition, such as Byd Company Limited(002594) , Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) .
In terms of smart cars, the current cooperation between technology giants and car enterprises continues to advance. In the future, China's smart electric car market will show a diversified competition pattern. With the subsequent significant increase in China's smart car supply (such as aionvplus, Xiaopeng P5 / G9, Great Wall salon mechatron, etc.), the industrial development shows an accelerated trend. It is suggested to pay attention to two main lines: 1) thematic opportunities in Huawei's auto industry chain, Such as Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) and Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) ; 2) The demand for cameras, millimeter wave radar, lidar and other sensors will continue to increase, and the penetration rate of intelligent cockpit will continue to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) . []
